Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
- Start date
We shall see what happens in spain..but i think kanaris will do everything needed to thraw any attempt to bring spain into the war
Now that's a big greece..but we have to wait to see what will happen..but those borders will require a massive population expulsion...i don't think that the allies will tolerate this..
The Allies have tolerated the expulsion of millions of Germans after WWII, I don't see why they wouldn't tolerate a partial expulsion of Turkish population in Minor Asia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944–1950)
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Well, Greece will have a legitimate demand for more secure and defensible borders, and an also legitimate demand for Constantinople, especially since a revived international zone after the war will have to include USSR, and that's something the western powers will prefer to avoid.
Therefore, if I have to speculate, I 'd say Greece is going to incorporate the Straits Zone and expand into Bithynia. An expansion into Caria doesn' t seem very plausible to me.
How the Turkish population of the above areas is treated? The Turks of Constantinople are possibly doomed to expulsion (especially if the City is liberated a few months before the end of the war) , but it won't be so simple with those of the Dardanelles and Bithynia. Unlike the early 1920s, Turkey doesn't have a Greek population to exchange. And a vacuum like this needs to be filled somehow.
There is also the factor of Constantinople's Jewish population and its fate under the Axis occupation will be a major factor in this equation. And, also the very critical factor of what the fate of Turkey itself will be: will it stay united, treated as a defeated evil enemy, or as a victim-state like the eastern European Axis allies which managed to switch sides at the last moment. Or will Turkey be partitioned between a western and a communist state?
I guess we'll have to wait for the author to show us!
Therefore, if I have to speculate, I 'd say Greece is going to incorporate the Straits Zone and expand into Bithynia. An expansion into Caria doesn' t seem very plausible to me.
How the Turkish population of the above areas is treated? The Turks of Constantinople are possibly doomed to expulsion (especially if the City is liberated a few months before the end of the war) , but it won't be so simple with those of the Dardanelles and Bithynia. Unlike the early 1920s, Turkey doesn't have a Greek population to exchange. And a vacuum like this needs to be filled somehow.
There is also the factor of Constantinople's Jewish population and its fate under the Axis occupation will be a major factor in this equation. And, also the very critical factor of what the fate of Turkey itself will be: will it stay united, treated as a defeated evil enemy, or as a victim-state like the eastern European Axis allies which managed to switch sides at the last moment. Or will Turkey be partitioned between a western and a communist state?
I guess we'll have to wait for the author to show us!
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Caria was Italian, and is therefore much easier to sell as the annexation of Caria-Dodecanese as a whole.
I just think Turkey is screwed no matter what. A victorious Greece will definitely take Constantinople and Western Anatolia, and frankly I think the question of 'who replaces the people you just expelled' would frankly be answered by 'we'll figure it out' as basically the Germans basically got expelled from Pomerania show. I'm pretty sure Churchill would've advised the Greeks to expell the Turks, and they would have all the reasons to do it.
I think the settlers of the newly occupied and expelled lands would basically be Greek refugees from the war, immigration from other European countries and expulsions from Muslim countries like Egypt/Cyrenaica, Turkey, etc. I'm pretty sure the Greeks would be hated just like the Israelites as they were a merchant class in the middle East too.
Russia with Armenia would take everything from Trazbon to lake Van while Kurdistan is created from what's left of Eastern Turkey, Northern Syria and Iraq with Aleppo being one of the major ports of the Kurds. No one would be sympathetic to the Turks after the war and all the expulsions would leave annexed bits of Anatolia depopulated and Turkey losing most assets it had. I do think it's more likely that Turkey becomes Communist though, with Kurdistan being the only Western looking nation in the middle East other than Israel, which should muddy the waters and make things very interesting.
The black sea should be very interesting ittl. NATO/Greece basically has the mouth of the black sea in their hands while the USSR practically has most other ports but are unable to project with them. The entire sea sighs be very tense as NATO ships would be in regular contact with USSR ships.
I think the settlers of the newly occupied and expelled lands would basically be Greek refugees from the war, immigration from other European countries and expulsions from Muslim countries like Egypt/Cyrenaica, Turkey, etc. I'm pretty sure the Greeks would be hated just like the Israelites as they were a merchant class in the middle East too.
Russia with Armenia would take everything from Trazbon to lake Van while Kurdistan is created from what's left of Eastern Turkey, Northern Syria and Iraq with Aleppo being one of the major ports of the Kurds. No one would be sympathetic to the Turks after the war and all the expulsions would leave annexed bits of Anatolia depopulated and Turkey losing most assets it had. I do think it's more likely that Turkey becomes Communist though, with Kurdistan being the only Western looking nation in the middle East other than Israel, which should muddy the waters and make things very interesting.
The black sea should be very interesting ittl. NATO/Greece basically has the mouth of the black sea in their hands while the USSR practically has most other ports but are unable to project with them. The entire sea sighs be very tense as NATO ships would be in regular contact with USSR ships.
Kurdistan would be created on the Western Powers' terms. Remember that they nominally control Iraq and Syria on some level.
And Aleppo is not a port in the first place. And any major Soviet mediterranean ports are more likely to be in Cilicia (Little Armenia).
The Alawite and Lebanese states would probably be friendly to the Kurds; the Assyrian state likely less.
That would be little different from OTL where turkey was part of NATO and had the Black Sea in their hands.
Assyria would hate everyone in the region, in fact, they'd be the closest thing to a neutral state if they exist after the war. Also I was talking about the Kurds getting a port, which is most likely going to be Aleppo.
Aleppo is about 100km from the coast. Even if the Kurds get the city it won't be a port.
I
Caria had seized being Italian quite some time before the war, IIRC. In my opinion, the most Greece can get from there (apart from minor adjustments of the borderline) is the concessions Turkey had given Italy concerning the mines and other resources.
Hm considering how thoroughly defanged Germany was IOTL, this isn't out of the possibility. Considering how the Western Allies are combating Turkey significantly more ITTL (considering the Turks were Neutral IOTL, anything ITTL is significantly more I guess) they will probably consider Turkey a necessary power that has to he defanged like OTL Germany, especially if they cant fully consider Turkey a future ally against the USSR. So previous Italian mandate going to Hellas isnt out of the question since they can console the themselves by saying Turkey shouldve never had it back in the first place?
I think that the issue is not about land, but about how much Turkish population are the allies (including USSR) willing to let Greece absorb, and how much is Greece willing to take, as it will flame up Turkish revanchism forever.
Part 77
Turkish-Syrian border, June 10th, 1941
The Turkish offensive into Syria opens up in a multi-pronged attack. Furthest east the Turkish XII Corps is making a push towards Urfa and Mardin. To the west the Turkish X Corps and the German XXX Corps attack towards Antep in the north and from Hatay in the west towards Aleppo. Even with ten divisions available on the Turkish side the fronline, over 600 km in a straight line, is too long for a contiguous front particularly furthest in the east. Things are even worse on the allied side with only two French divisions and a single Australian division initially available. With large parts of the front thinly held mobility proves essential, but so do the roads and sources of water available in the region particularly further east, you can't keep in supply tens of thousands of men and animals far away from them. Initially much superior in numbers, Fahreddin is commanding 236,690 with 48 tanks against 87,956 French and British soldiers with 84 tanks, and enjoying air superiority, the Turkish army pushes allied forces back. But it comes at a cost, as aside from the few divisions re-equipped by the Germans and the Germans themselves most other Turkish divisions have no more a third the artillery of their allied counterparts. And even the Germans are very much deficient compared to the allied units when it comes to motor transport. Time and again the British and French manage to inflict heavier casualties and then pull back to fight again before the Turks and Germans can destroy them. In the meantime British reinforcements, the 6th Infantry division with two British and the 5th South African brigade as well as the 9th Australian division where rushing north from Egypt to reinforce their comrades...
Nicosia, June 13th, 1941
Archibshop Leontios blessed the colours of the 1st Cypriot Infantry brigade. Original plans had been calling for sending the British 50th Infantry division to garrison Cyprus. But with British forces needed in Greece, Libya, Syria and Iraq, wasting a whole division to Cyprus was impossible. Thousands of Greek Cypriots had rushed to join the Cyprus since the start of the war, particularly after Greece had joined it. And while the Colonial Office was very much concerned about unionist sentiment, the Greek members or the Cypriot legislative council had already issued a resolution asking for union with Greece and George Kafandaris, the vice president of the Greek government when in London had also made a formal request to Churchill to the same effect, war needs came first. Thus Churchill had shot down the attempts from the colonial office to stop formation of the brigade. Of course for Colonial Office mandarins Churchill himself was suspect on the suspect as back in 1913 he had been the one to propose union of Cyprus with Greece...
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, USSR, June 14th, 1941
NKVD start the deportation of 60,000 people to Siberia...
Syria, June 14th, 1941
The Turkish army entered Antep. The local Armenians had already fled ahead of the Turks just as the local Turkish population enthusiastically welcomed their compatriots as liberators. Two days later the Turkish army would also enter Mardin.
El Agheila, Libya, June 17th, 1941
156 British tanks, out of 294 that had start the battle three days earlier lay destroyed on the battlefield. The Germans had themselves lost 78 tanks but since they remained in control of the battlefield many of them would be returned to the battlefield in short order. Wavell under pressure from London, where Churchill was considering outright replacing him, start giving serious thought to replacing Sir Philip Neame in command of the Western Desert Force. With O'Connor off to command the British forces in Syria and Wilson and Blamey in Greece, the question was with whom.
Malta, Grand Harbour, June 17th, 1941
Lieutenant commander Athanasios Spanidis raised the Jolly Roger along the Greek flag as the just surfaced HNS Proteus followed the pilot into the Grand Harbour. Two days ago his attack against one of the convoys outbound for Tripoli had gotten one merchantman sunk and one probably damaged and his boat had escaped the Italian destroyers protecting the convoy afterwards. The Italian destroyers escorting the convoys for all the propaganda to the contrary were fiercely capable and had claimed several allied submarines since the start of the war but the 40 allied submarines operating against the Italians, were taking their toll on Italian shipping. Over 158,000 tons had been sunk over the last year. [1] This by the standards of the battle of the Atlantic was rather small change, Allied losses there were in excess of 1.7 million tons for the first six months of the year. [2]
North of Idlib, Syria, June 18th, 1941
The 9th Australian and the 6th British divisions counterattacked against the Germans and Turks that were threatening Idlib and Afrin and with them the allied forces further north at Kilic. The 6th Australian division was already disembarking at Latakia as well. This had been subject to somewhat delicate negotiations with the Greek government. Pangalos was confident you could hold the relatively short front in mainland Greece with the forces he had available, he had already start pulling units to the rear to rest and refit them and both he, Dragoumis and Kafandaris well understood that it was imperative for the allies to hold the Suez at all costs if Greece was to survive but removing all British forces from Greece would had been a disaster for public morale in Greece and Britain, or for that matter with the public in the United States, an argument that Churchill well understood. So it had been decided to keep the New Zealanders in Greece while the Australians were moved to Syria, this had the added political advantage of reuniting Australian forces as the Australian government wanted. If further reinforcement has needed Pangalos had proposed deploying one of the Greek cavalry divisions. After all the division could then be converted to armour...
Eastern Europe, June 22nd, 1941
Thousands of German and Romanian aircraft attacked Soviet positions and aerodromes, as 12 German and 2 Romanian armies attacked east. In what was likely history's largest military operation. 148 German divisions, 19 of them Panzer with 3,221 tanks and 3,092,000 men [3] alongside 326,000 Romanians with 200 more tanks took on the 2.68 million men in the Soviet military districts. For all the warnings from Soviet intelligence and Britain, the Germans still managed to achieve surprise.
Helsinki, June 25th, 1941
Soviet bombers attacked the city. Finland had ostensibly been neutral so far but German troops and aircraft were using Finnish territory to attack the Soviets. Finland using the bombing as a pretext declared war the same day.
Off Samsun, Black sea, June 27th, 1941
Hungary and Slovakia had declared war the previous day. Bulgaria had refused to do so. Turkey was on the verge it's leadership still undecided despite strong pressure and promises of extensive gains by Franz von Papen the German ambassador in Sivas. In the meantime reinforcements were being shipped from Constantinople and Panormos (Bandirma) to Samsun and Trebizont under escort of the Turkish navy and the small Italian squadron that had joined it after the fall of the Dodecanese while with tensions running high some sporadic skirmishing had already taken place in the Soviet-Turkish border, most soldiers in the Soviet Transcaucasus military district were Georgians and Armenians and perhaps somewhat more trigger happy than other Soviet nationalities might had been.
Under such circumstances the Soviet Black sea fleet with the battleships Frunze and Parizhskaya Kommuna making a foray off Samsun as a show of force was perhaps ill advised, Turkish officials post-war would had claim it had been construed as an attack on Samsun. Whether true or not Francesco Mimbelli escorting a troop convoy to Samsun had not bothered to wait for orders from Sivas to attack the Soviets sinking Parizhskaya Kommuna, Italy was definitely at war with the Soviets as well and the status of his ship about as vague as that of Goeben a generation earlier. The Soviets would turn back for Sevastopol following the sinking but Soviet bombers would attack Sivas the same night and Peker, already predisposed towards war and pressed by his Renewal Party allies to join the Germans would use the pretext to declare war the next day...
[1] Over the same period 143,086 tons had been sunk. In OTL you had 18 British, 5 Greek, 3 Dutch and 2 Polish boats in 1941. TTL you have 12 Greek and 5 French boats on top of the British, Dutch and Poles.
[2] In OTL in was 1,902,000 tons in the same period. Access to Dakar and Irish ports is starting to take its toll...
[3] Germany is having here roughly 25,000 fewer men and 177 fewer tanks thanks to somewhat heavier casualties in the Polish, French and Balkan campaigns.
The Turkish offensive into Syria opens up in a multi-pronged attack. Furthest east the Turkish XII Corps is making a push towards Urfa and Mardin. To the west the Turkish X Corps and the German XXX Corps attack towards Antep in the north and from Hatay in the west towards Aleppo. Even with ten divisions available on the Turkish side the fronline, over 600 km in a straight line, is too long for a contiguous front particularly furthest in the east. Things are even worse on the allied side with only two French divisions and a single Australian division initially available. With large parts of the front thinly held mobility proves essential, but so do the roads and sources of water available in the region particularly further east, you can't keep in supply tens of thousands of men and animals far away from them. Initially much superior in numbers, Fahreddin is commanding 236,690 with 48 tanks against 87,956 French and British soldiers with 84 tanks, and enjoying air superiority, the Turkish army pushes allied forces back. But it comes at a cost, as aside from the few divisions re-equipped by the Germans and the Germans themselves most other Turkish divisions have no more a third the artillery of their allied counterparts. And even the Germans are very much deficient compared to the allied units when it comes to motor transport. Time and again the British and French manage to inflict heavier casualties and then pull back to fight again before the Turks and Germans can destroy them. In the meantime British reinforcements, the 6th Infantry division with two British and the 5th South African brigade as well as the 9th Australian division where rushing north from Egypt to reinforce their comrades...
Nicosia, June 13th, 1941
Archibshop Leontios blessed the colours of the 1st Cypriot Infantry brigade. Original plans had been calling for sending the British 50th Infantry division to garrison Cyprus. But with British forces needed in Greece, Libya, Syria and Iraq, wasting a whole division to Cyprus was impossible. Thousands of Greek Cypriots had rushed to join the Cyprus since the start of the war, particularly after Greece had joined it. And while the Colonial Office was very much concerned about unionist sentiment, the Greek members or the Cypriot legislative council had already issued a resolution asking for union with Greece and George Kafandaris, the vice president of the Greek government when in London had also made a formal request to Churchill to the same effect, war needs came first. Thus Churchill had shot down the attempts from the colonial office to stop formation of the brigade. Of course for Colonial Office mandarins Churchill himself was suspect on the suspect as back in 1913 he had been the one to propose union of Cyprus with Greece...
Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, USSR, June 14th, 1941
NKVD start the deportation of 60,000 people to Siberia...
Syria, June 14th, 1941
The Turkish army entered Antep. The local Armenians had already fled ahead of the Turks just as the local Turkish population enthusiastically welcomed their compatriots as liberators. Two days later the Turkish army would also enter Mardin.
El Agheila, Libya, June 17th, 1941
156 British tanks, out of 294 that had start the battle three days earlier lay destroyed on the battlefield. The Germans had themselves lost 78 tanks but since they remained in control of the battlefield many of them would be returned to the battlefield in short order. Wavell under pressure from London, where Churchill was considering outright replacing him, start giving serious thought to replacing Sir Philip Neame in command of the Western Desert Force. With O'Connor off to command the British forces in Syria and Wilson and Blamey in Greece, the question was with whom.
Malta, Grand Harbour, June 17th, 1941
Lieutenant commander Athanasios Spanidis raised the Jolly Roger along the Greek flag as the just surfaced HNS Proteus followed the pilot into the Grand Harbour. Two days ago his attack against one of the convoys outbound for Tripoli had gotten one merchantman sunk and one probably damaged and his boat had escaped the Italian destroyers protecting the convoy afterwards. The Italian destroyers escorting the convoys for all the propaganda to the contrary were fiercely capable and had claimed several allied submarines since the start of the war but the 40 allied submarines operating against the Italians, were taking their toll on Italian shipping. Over 158,000 tons had been sunk over the last year. [1] This by the standards of the battle of the Atlantic was rather small change, Allied losses there were in excess of 1.7 million tons for the first six months of the year. [2]
North of Idlib, Syria, June 18th, 1941
The 9th Australian and the 6th British divisions counterattacked against the Germans and Turks that were threatening Idlib and Afrin and with them the allied forces further north at Kilic. The 6th Australian division was already disembarking at Latakia as well. This had been subject to somewhat delicate negotiations with the Greek government. Pangalos was confident you could hold the relatively short front in mainland Greece with the forces he had available, he had already start pulling units to the rear to rest and refit them and both he, Dragoumis and Kafandaris well understood that it was imperative for the allies to hold the Suez at all costs if Greece was to survive but removing all British forces from Greece would had been a disaster for public morale in Greece and Britain, or for that matter with the public in the United States, an argument that Churchill well understood. So it had been decided to keep the New Zealanders in Greece while the Australians were moved to Syria, this had the added political advantage of reuniting Australian forces as the Australian government wanted. If further reinforcement has needed Pangalos had proposed deploying one of the Greek cavalry divisions. After all the division could then be converted to armour...
Eastern Europe, June 22nd, 1941
Thousands of German and Romanian aircraft attacked Soviet positions and aerodromes, as 12 German and 2 Romanian armies attacked east. In what was likely history's largest military operation. 148 German divisions, 19 of them Panzer with 3,221 tanks and 3,092,000 men [3] alongside 326,000 Romanians with 200 more tanks took on the 2.68 million men in the Soviet military districts. For all the warnings from Soviet intelligence and Britain, the Germans still managed to achieve surprise.
Helsinki, June 25th, 1941
Soviet bombers attacked the city. Finland had ostensibly been neutral so far but German troops and aircraft were using Finnish territory to attack the Soviets. Finland using the bombing as a pretext declared war the same day.
Off Samsun, Black sea, June 27th, 1941
Hungary and Slovakia had declared war the previous day. Bulgaria had refused to do so. Turkey was on the verge it's leadership still undecided despite strong pressure and promises of extensive gains by Franz von Papen the German ambassador in Sivas. In the meantime reinforcements were being shipped from Constantinople and Panormos (Bandirma) to Samsun and Trebizont under escort of the Turkish navy and the small Italian squadron that had joined it after the fall of the Dodecanese while with tensions running high some sporadic skirmishing had already taken place in the Soviet-Turkish border, most soldiers in the Soviet Transcaucasus military district were Georgians and Armenians and perhaps somewhat more trigger happy than other Soviet nationalities might had been.
Under such circumstances the Soviet Black sea fleet with the battleships Frunze and Parizhskaya Kommuna making a foray off Samsun as a show of force was perhaps ill advised, Turkish officials post-war would had claim it had been construed as an attack on Samsun. Whether true or not Francesco Mimbelli escorting a troop convoy to Samsun had not bothered to wait for orders from Sivas to attack the Soviets sinking Parizhskaya Kommuna, Italy was definitely at war with the Soviets as well and the status of his ship about as vague as that of Goeben a generation earlier. The Soviets would turn back for Sevastopol following the sinking but Soviet bombers would attack Sivas the same night and Peker, already predisposed towards war and pressed by his Renewal Party allies to join the Germans would use the pretext to declare war the next day...
[1] Over the same period 143,086 tons had been sunk. In OTL you had 18 British, 5 Greek, 3 Dutch and 2 Polish boats in 1941. TTL you have 12 Greek and 5 French boats on top of the British, Dutch and Poles.
[2] In OTL in was 1,902,000 tons in the same period. Access to Dakar and Irish ports is starting to take its toll...
[3] Germany is having here roughly 25,000 fewer men and 177 fewer tanks thanks to somewhat heavier casualties in the Polish, French and Balkan campaigns.
