No Spanish Civil War, the rise of a middle power?

[Zealot]

How would Spain have developed in the late 30s and the 40s, 50s… had the Civil War not happened? Regardless the political system ( constitutional monarchy, parliamentary republic or authoritarian regime), the basic premises are: Spain avoiding the Civil War , staying neutral during WWII (and not Axis-friendly) and pro-Western during cold war. Taking into account that OTL Spain suffered more than two “lost decades” of economic stagnation and postwar hardships, and only after 1960s with the liberalization of its economy the country experienced its economic miracle, which would be the effects of an earlier economic takeoff?

I want to read your opinions about the matter; I don’t know which consequences would have the neutrality in WWII on a medium-sized economy which would have been recovering from the Great Depression (although, according to some sources, the Spanish economy, due to its relative isolation and underdevelopment in the early 30s, suffered less than other countries the world economic recession). Would Spanish incipient industry have benefited from the loss of foreign competition for the domestic market, and have expanded at a high degree ?. Would Spanish exports (remember, exports from an almost intact economy) , “conquer” Western Europe markets during post-war recovery years?. What would have been the negative impact of WWII in Spain, etc….

 

[HeavyWeaponsGuy]

The problem was the Civil War was simply the latest in a series of internal conflicts fought in Spain over unresolved social, economic, and political issues, Spain was a society sufficiently polarized that the reaction to serious challenges on serious social issues was a pretty vicious cycle of repression and violence. Political stability would be a significant achievement for Spain in the 20th century. The problem is finding a way to basically hit the reset button on Spanish society, Franco accomplished this with mass murder and brute force, plenty of others would have done the same, but ultimately the reasons for which Franco's dictatorship emerged are part of the paradox of how does one resolve Spain's issue of a deeply fragmented society.

 

[Zealot]

The problem was the Civil War was simply the latest in a series of internal conflicts fought in Spain over unresolved social, economic, and political issues, Spain was a society sufficiently polarized that the reaction to serious challenges on serious social issues was a pretty vicious cycle of repression and violence. Political stability would be a significant achievement for Spain in the 20th century. The problem is finding a way to basically hit the reset button on Spanish society, Franco accomplished this with mass murder and brute force, plenty of others would have done the same, but ultimately the reasons for which Franco's dictatorship emerged are part of the paradox of how does one resolve Spain's issue of a deeply fragmented society.

IMHO, there are several ways of achieving political stability and softening polarization other than a Civil War. Look at Portugal or even Italy, countries that also were caught between the challenges of the future and the heavy legacy of their past. Although neither Italy nor Portugal are the best example for political development, their autocrats didn’t resort to genocide for achieving “stability”.

The basic problem for Spain was that the Republic raised enormously the expectations of the lower social classes, but it wasn’t able to meet them. The political violence, in terms of continuity and its level, had indeed no precedent in Spanish recent history. All this, combined with the incompetence of their small-minded politicians, both form Left and Right, the tolerance and even the political use of partisan violence, and the enormity of the task the Republic had to carry on, led to SCW and the abrupt interruption of what could have been a slow but steady narrowing of the gap with the rest of NW Europe.

Thus, I insist on the original question; I’m interested in how would Spain be like without CV. In terms of population , for instance, I presume that the baby boom, which in Spain took place in late 60s-early 70s, would have happened much earlier….. so, what could be the current population of AH Spain?. And would TTL Spain have established stronger ties with Latin America earlier, allowing Spanish economic penetration, and….?

 

[Thande]

We have an extensive timeline on this subject by Dr Strangelove, which can be found here.

 

[Zealot]

If TTL Spain stays neutral in WWII, will the consequences be similar to WWI?

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/España...Consecuencias_de_la_neutralidad_espa.C3.B1ola

 

[lukedalton]

The problem is that without the Spanish Civil War there are some butterfly on WWII.
Italy sent to Franco a lot of material, ammunitions and spent an awful quantity of money to support the Nationalist without having much in return and even learn the wrong military lesson from the conflict so without that sinkhole the italian armed forces are in a better situation (not that much but nevertheless); maybe the italian divisions get more trunk and supply or Taranto get the upgrade of the harbour defense who was postponed for financial reason.
Russia will be a little more poor, the SCW was a moment of very good business for Stalin, as he made pay the Repubblicans the weapons he supply in hard cash aka the Moscow Gold.
Finally a Spain no wrecked by the Civil war can be engulfed by WWII regardless of her opinion or desire as Adolf can see her as a menace and decide to not stop at the Pirenee.

 

[Cook]

IMHO, there are several ways of achieving political stability and softening polarization other than a Civil War. Look at Portugal or even Italy, countries that also were caught between the challenges of the future and the heavy legacy of their past. Although neither Italy nor Portugal are the best example for political development, their autocrats didn’t resort to genocide for achieving “stability”.

I’m not sure what you are trying to say here; The Spanish right were emulating Mussolini when they attempted the coup, the Civil War was the result of them being unsuccessful in achieving a rapid takeover of authority. Are you looking for a scenario for a successful coup?

 

[PoeFacedKilla]

The problem is that without the Spanish Civil War there are some butterfly on WWII.
Italy sent to Franco a lot of material, ammunitions and spent an awful quantity of money to support the Nationalist without having much in return and even learn the wrong military lesson from the conflict so without that sinkhole the italian armed forces are in a better situation (not that much but nevertheless); maybe the italian divisions get more trunk and supply or Taranto get the upgrade of the harbour defense who was postponed for financial reason.
Russia will be a little more poor, the SCW was a moment of very good business for Stalin, as he made pay the Repubblicans the weapons he supply in hard cash aka the Moscow Gold.
Finally a Spain no wrecked by the Civil war can be engulfed by WWII regardless of her opinion or desire as Adolf can see her as a menace and decide to not stop at the Pirenee.

that war would be over alot quicker than IOTL. Two impossibly huge fronts....