No Chernobyl, and no 3 Mile Island...

MacCaulay

Banned
...just a thought I was having after I mentioned the attempt to by the Canadian navy to buy SSNs.

Let's suppose for an instant that there's no Chernobyl meltdown (none at all) and 3 Mile Island doesn't happen, either. What would the effects on the development of nuclear projects be around the world if for the most part, nuclear energy had a smooth running record since the end of the Second World War?
 

NothingNow

Banned
Honestly? We'd have had at least one serious nuclear accident by now, or a near miss, but hopefully not as glaring as Chernobyl (where really, the lack of passive safeties on the reactors was criminal negligence, same as the whole set up at Fukushima.) It's really a question of PR.
But Reactors would be plentiful, newer and more efficient and powerful, electricity and steam would be cheap, and most of the gas and Coal plants in developed nations would be used to handle peak load and sudden spikes in demand.
 
...just a thought I was having after I mentioned the attempt to by the Canadian navy to buy SSNs.

Let's suppose for an instant that there's no Chernobyl meltdown (none at all) and 3 Mile Island doesn't happen, either. What would the effects on the development of nuclear projects be around the world if for the most part, nuclear energy had a smooth running record since the end of the Second World War?

There were many other incidents besides TMI and Chernobyl. There were several incidents in Mayak alone that have irradiated over 400,000 people over the years and are rated higher in terms of severity than TMI and Chernobyl. Information was kept from the US public about the incidents, so as not to damage faith in US Nuclear energy plans. Those two just happen to be the best known.

Torqumada
 

mowque

Banned
There were many other incidents besides TMI and Chernobyl. There were several incidents in Mayak alone that have irradiated over 400,000 people over the years and are rated higher in terms of severity than TMI and Chernobyl. Information was kept from the US public about the incidents, so as not to damage faith in US Nuclear energy plans. Those two just happen to be the best known.

Torqumada

And there was that big fire in the UK (Windscale?), that could have turned nasty.
 
As a pro-nuke Green- my thoughts

The biggest issues folks had with nukes before TMI and Chernobyl accidents were the mantle of secrecy and associations with the national security state that prevented a factual assessment and remediation plan of nuclear energy's risks.

Windscale and other near-accidents (there was one near meltdown in Ohio contemporaneous with TMI that would've really been tough to deal with) were ignored by the press and really didn't impact the safety culture of the nuclear power industry as much if they'd gotten more play.

Chernobyl was a mixture of really bad safety design, operators doing something really risky with no safety margin, and Murphy going nuts. Horrible for the crews that had to deal with it, but as far as disasters go, traffic any given week killed more people than the accident is likely to.
Transient Radiation exposure =/= cancer risks as much as people think. Sure, hanging out near a 50kt nuclear blast is really bad for your long-term health (you're getting exposed to gamma plus fallout) but getting 10 X-rays over a month as the fallout plume washed out of the atmosphere isn't.
Cesium and Strontium isotopes are nasty b/c they hang around and mimic calcium so if they're ingested and taken into bone marrow the radiation exposure continues for years. Don't drink milk or eat contaminated food by said fallout plume, and I seriously doubt any long-term effects reduced anyone's lifespan in that plume.

Fukushima was a mixture of bad siting, bad safety engineering, and a 2,000-year 9.0 quake + 100' tsunami all but ensuring failure. Add in TEPCO getting no political pressure to ensure better safety practices or upgrades by the Japanese govt and it's a damning argument whether we humans can make toast much less make nuclear fission happen safely.

I'm hardly a nuclear engineer, but it seems the political hairball re: disposal of nuclear waste (spent fuel rods, mostly) is the elephant in the room.

NIMBY has become BANANA (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything Else) where zero risk is the only tolerable risk.

My opinion is, make sure only 1-3 sites do nuclear waste reprocessing to ensure adequate security and have breeders force transuranic wastes down the decay ladder to far-less toxic and gamma-emitting isotopes to reduce the unlikely event of folks deciding to use it for bombs but mostly, not present a threat for thousands of years into the future.

Go for a phased-transition to thorium MSR reactors that are a lot safer vs LWR uranium-fueled reactors. It won't be like the atompunk AEC pamphlets used to trumpet "power too cheap to meter!" but it would prevent the thousands of coal mining deaths as well as deaths due to air pollution due to coal-fired plant air pollution, mercury contamination, etc.
 
Last edited:
There were many other incidents besides TMI and Chernobyl. There were several incidents in Mayak alone that have irradiated over 400,000 people over the years and are rated higher in terms of severity than TMI and Chernobyl. Information was kept from the US public about the incidents, so as not to damage faith in US Nuclear energy plans. Those two just happen to be the best known.

Torqumada

On the International Nuclear Event Scale, Mayak is rated Level 6 (7 being the highest, 0 being the lowest), making it less severe an accident than Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi. Three Mile Island, Windscale Fire, Goiânia Accident (not actually a nuclear reactor accident) all rate at only 5. So Chernobyl is still the most severe accident.
 
Speaking for the US: Honestly, you need to keep Ronald Reagan and probably Jimmy Carter out of the White House, and get a President who supported nuclear power, like Mo Udall. Carter kind of did, but it was halfway crap, when nuclear power needed the whole shebang.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
There were many other incidents besides TMI and Chernobyl. There were several incidents in Mayak alone that have irradiated over 400,000 people over the years and are rated higher in terms of severity than TMI and Chernobyl. Information was kept from the US public about the incidents, so as not to damage faith in US Nuclear energy plans. Those two just happen to be the best known.

Torqumada

And therein is why I framed the question like I did. There weren't others that were as well known as Chernobyl or Three Mile Island. They really defined the conversation on nuclear safety.
 
I wonder if lessons of nuclear power would still be learned the hard way...


These are the largest OTL disasters, but removing them may well lead to an alt-disaster that was prevented because of new regulations and an abundance of caution afterward. Potentially, a historical near miss takes the focus that OTL did. I do think a "small steps" sort of ATL would emerge, albeit one that may leave much of Belorussia habitable.


I suppose it is possible for Fukushima to be the first serious nuclear disaster, although how Japan is supposed to deal with an Earthquake larger than seen in modern times is another matter entirely.
 
I wonder if lessons of nuclear power would still be learned the hard way...


These are the largest OTL disasters, but removing them may well lead to an alt-disaster that was prevented because of new regulations and an abundance of caution afterward. Potentially, a historical near miss takes the focus that OTL did. I do think a "small steps" sort of ATL would emerge, albeit one that may leave much of Belorussia habitable.


I suppose it is possible for Fukushima to be the first serious nuclear disaster, although how Japan is supposed to deal with an Earthquake larger than seen in modern times is another matter entirely.

Perhaps we hear more about and learn more from the near misses then we did in OTL. Another potential disaster avoided occurred at the Fermi-I reactor near Detroit in October 1966: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/NucEne/nucacc.html
 
Consider the numbers who died annually in rail accidents in the 1800s and how long it took to uniformly enforce the best practices private companies had themselves introduced and it gives an idea of the improbability of privately-funded Nuclear having had anything other than a dire safety record. The accidents were fewer but much more dangerous, so the dynamic of financial interests pushing technologies they knew to be dangerous and bending the truth in doing so was always a hazard.
 
Top