New Deal Coalition Retained: A Sixth Party System Wikibox Timeline
"Therefore, with the grace of almighty God, I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States of America."
--Former Governor Ronald Reagan (R-CA), Los Angeles, California--
--September 4th, 1975--
@The Congressman, is the auto industry's reaction to the OPEC crisis different than IOTL? If Detroit does things properly, the Japanese boom may not be as dramatic.
Will be covered in a later update, but the reaction is similar to OTL but not the same
Hi all. This is my first thread. I've wanted to do a political timeline for a while, and I decided to try something familiar to me.
I just want to answer a few questions:
Enjoy
- This is not a wank. I may be on the conservative side of things but all sides will get a fair shake. Liberals and Conservatives will have fun reading this, I promise
- This is not a No Southern Strategy rip off. Yes, I am a huge fan of the timeline and yes, reading it did inspire me to try a wikibox timeline, but I do not and will not try and copy Gonzo and Nofix's amazing timeline.
- Feel free to leave any comment you wish, just please make it respectable
- Also, if any one of you has an interesting idea please let me know. If I like it you may find your suggestion part of history
TV Tropes page
Table of Contents:
- A General's Adjutant
- 1960 Conventions
- 1960 Election
- Nixon's First Year
- Cuba/Algeria
- A Nation Divided
- 1962 Midterms
- Civil Rights Act Pt 1
- Civil Rights Act Pt 2
- Death of a President
- Foreign Snapshot
- 1964 Convention
- 1964 Election
- 1964 Downballot
- A Troublesome Start
- How JFK Lost the Democratic Party
- Alabama Burning
- 1966 Midterms
- Foreign Snapshot
- Chaos in Asia
- 1968 Conventions
- 1968 Election
- 1968 Downballot
- 91st Congress
- 1960s Pop Culture
- Mankind Ascending
- Foreign Snapshot
- President Wallace
- The Counterculture
- Liberty Conservative Triumphant
- The Iron Curtain Shifts
- Third World Battleground
- Tet Offensive
- Swift Vengeance
- 1970 Midterms Pt 1
- 1970 Midterms Pt 2
- 92nd Congress
- Wallace v. Congress
- Tale of Four Governors
- Humanitarian Crises
- International Terrorism
- Yom Kippur War
- Early Primaries
- Endgame
- South Asian Snapshot
- The Tiger and the Samurai
- Healthcare Speech
- 1972 Primaries
- 1972 Election
- 1972 Downballot
- 93rd Congress
- SCOTUS
- Monday in Albion Pt. 1
- Monday in Albion Pt. 2
- Amcare
- 1973 Elections
- Ideology
- United States v. Fonda
- 1974 Midterms
- A Red Carnation
- 94th Congress
- 1975 White House Correspondent's Dinner
- The Man in the High Castle
Great! I like the suspense of the Nixon/Johnson 1960 Election. Very plausible. I like it a lot.
Lost Freeway
Banned
@AlexanderXXIII : I know you're late to the party, but you could at least quote the bits you're referring to.
Early Primaries
Unlike 1972, with a cycle of experience in the new system of nationwide primaries, old methods of preparing for convention floor fights had evaporated. The gathering campaigns for the open seat of President George Corley Wallace all adopted what had turned from a wooing effort to build goodwill with state and local party organizations into a popularity and momentum contest from state to state. While crisis after crisis truly demoralized America as a whole, the party bases were fired up – the Democrats to take another four years to cement the Wallace agenda and the Republicans to take back the White House and set the nation to rights.
Three heavyweights dominated the GOP primary race: New York Representative Roy M. Cohn (returning for his second try), Maryland Governor and harsh Wallace critic Spiro Agnew, and California Governor Ronald Reagan (finally pulling the trigger after turning down draft efforts in both 68 and 72). Each had consolidated support from various factions of the party, but for the most part they were merely regional and personal splits. Liberty Conservatism had largely taken over the Republican Party since Pete McCloskey’s hard won primary. Though Reagan would take the vast majority of the LC wing, him, Cohn, and Agnew were squarely within said wing – cementing its dominance of the Grand Old Party.
Minnesota, decided by acclaim to be the set first primary state after it propelled Pete McCloskey to victory in 1972, was widely seen as a matchup between Reagan and Agnew. Roy Cohn, making a strategic decision to concentrate on New Hampshire, largely abandoned the state. Thus, it was a four way race with Reagan and Agnew as the frontrunners. Both held similar records and views, but were widely off in style and appeal.
Reagan, inheriting the McCloskey organization along with his own formidable team and endorsed by Senator Eugene McCarthy, was the epitome of optimism and charisma. Always cracking a joke at his campaign rallies, he spoke of bringing happiness back to America and uniting people under Liberty Conservatism after the division of the Wallace years. Agnew on the other hand campaigned as the Republican Wallace, denouncing the President in fiery speeches that targeted “Liberal nabobs” and “Socialist bureaucratic boondoggles” that threatened the American economy – namely the tariffs, price controls, and Amcare. Reagan denounced them as well, but opined that “We have to say, as conservatives, what we are for, not what we’re against.”
Campaigning hard, both Governors were upended by the insurgent campaign of Oregon Senator Mark Hatfield. Largely an also-ran for most of the campaign along with Senator Bob Dole of Kansas, his largely pacifist, isolationist campaign and moderate economic positions appealed to both Rockefeller liberals that still formed a large minority in the GOP and the McCarthyite voters that dominated the MN Republican electorate – those that put McCloskey over the top. His soft-spoken demeanor and handsome visage contrasted well against Reagan and Agnew, surging late in the game. Just at the right time.
On the Democratic side, the gallery of candidates was far narrower but no less heated. A seismic shift had occurred within the ranks of the party of the people, one that pitted communonationalist against communonationalist in a bitter personal rivalry. The longtime heir apparent to President Wallace was Vice President Henry M. “Scoop” Jackson. A long-time Senator and the leading voice in the Democratic Party on foreign policy and defense issues, though exhausted from having to keep the increasingly bitter and pensive Wallace from hurtling off the deep end from stress and anger, his desire to win still burned bright and seemed to only face token opposition in the coming primaries.
However, it was not to be. An ardent foe of Jackson – at least personally, for their views aligned for the most part on all but certain fiscal issues – and fellow cabinet member felt his moment had arrived. Therefore, four months before the Minnesota primary Treasury Secretary John Connally announced his resignation and the desire to run for President on the Democratic line. Suddenly the unified Wallace, Communonationalist faction found itself split down the middle; northerners and Westerners going for the populist Jackson while the South and industrial heartland booked for the more socially conservative Connally. Meanwhile, a third candidate took the opportunity to take advantage of the split, California Congressman John McFall. With Connally and Jackson duking it out over the Wallace coalition, he hoped to nab the Kennedy liberal wing to place strong initially and win.
Minnesota would provide the first test for the three candidates. Policies largely the same (except for Connally’s semi-fiscal conservatism and McFall’s social moderate views on certain issues), the disagreements largely centered on strategy and regional appeal. Jackson portrayed himself as the Chief Negotiator and foreign policy guru of Wallace’s presidency, appealing to the same suburban working class and professionals that formed his base back in Washington. Connally threw in a dose of his Texan populism, stumping the rural regions hard. McFall went for the Humphrey Democrats in the Twin Cities region, advocating an appeal to liberals that voted McCloskey (or Wallace but were disenchanted over the Rarick nomination).
After a garrulous concession speech from Connally that really proved the axiom “Nothing is more dangerous than a Texan scorned,” the amity that so characterized the Democratic race was soon to be broken.
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Following the embarrassment in Minnesota, Ronald Reagan huddled in the home of supporter Governor Meldrim Thomson of New Hampshire with his campaign team to reassess a new strategy. Some, such as deputy manager John Sears and Press Liaison Ed Meese wished to double down on Reagan’s innate ability to connect with people. Go door to door and talk to Granite Staters man to man. Others, such as manager Lynn Nofziger and strategists William Casey and Michael Deaver advocated for a change in rhetoric to appeal to the McCarthyite wing that had abandoned him in MN to Hatfield – Agnew being unbeatable in the far-right of the GOP and Reagan already having sown up the mainstream liberty conservatives. The swing voters were those voting for Cohn and Hatfield, and Nofziger argued that’s where Reagan should concentrate.
The Gipper, discussing it with his wife Nancy and Senator George Murphy (his friend and early supporter, John the Baptist to his Jesus), remarked to his staff “Each sounds perfect, so why not both?” Entering a townhall with voters in Derry, NH, Reagan answered a question from an audience member about fear of provoking a war with a radical turn, condemning the Wallace/LeMay nuclear arms buildup. “We need to get away from that. It plays into the Russian hand, for one missile is far cheaper than a thousand tanks. Deterrence should be America’s fighting man, for he doesn’t threaten the world with annihilation.” From Hatfield or even Cohn, the rhetoric wouldn’t have raised eyebrows. From the avowed nemesis of the Hollywood Communists – one that bragged about it across Minnesota – it was a political earthquake. At the Republican debate at the Coolidge Presidential Library in Massachusetts (Calvin Coolidge having gotten a massive surge in popularity among liberty conservatives, his son bankrolling the expansion of his Presidential Library), Reagan fended off attacks from his fellow competitors. Laughing at a barb from Agnew calling his rhetoric dangerous, Reagan dispatched it with the memorable line “There you go again.”
Moderate voters, largely relics from the Rockefeller wing of the party, began to slowly seep from Cohn’s campaign as Reagan crisscrossed the state shaking hands and invoking the memory of Calvin Coolidge in the late President’s stomping grounds.
“They called him ‘Silent Cal,’ for he was a man of few words. Well, I’ve been told the opposite regarding myself.” Reagan would write that that line was a surefire hit in the Northeast.
Cohn’s defeat – not winning a single county – would destroy his campaign before the season even started. Momentum and apparent strength counting for everything, the New York Representative shocked no one by suspending his campaign the very next day. What did shock all was his prompt endorsement of Ronald Reagan. In hindsight, it didn’t seem such a surprising move. The congressman’s wife, Elizabeth Taylor, was a good friend of her former Hollywood colleague and the Buckley brothers were close political allies (though they deferred endorsements out of loyalty to Cohn). Appearing in a rally in Central Park, Reagan embraced Cohn as he announced “This year will truly be Morning in America, where we shake off the fear and pessimism of the past and look towards a golden tomorrow of prosperity and liberty.” Reagan’s campaign would be bolstered by battle hardened veterans of Cohn’s political circle such as Roger Stone and Theodore “Ted” Bundy, who would become the Governor’s Media Director and Deputy Press Spokesman respectively. The Cohn financial network chaired by young businessman Donald J. Trump would also join Reagan’s campaign, flushing it with cash at just the right time.
A reliably Republican region once more following the shifts of the 1972 election, what remained of the Democratic base in New England rested solely upon the working class whites that inhabited the logging camps and mill towns scattered around the region. This was enough for solid floors in MA and RI while dooming the party in VT, which had none. For NH, it was about half-half despite John Durkin’s win in 1974 – though that was largely attributable to his crossover appeal with Progressive-minded voters. Scoop Jackson was considered a good fit with these voters, and his win in MN gave him a leg up in the week prior to the election.
Connally didn’t allow the Vice President to rest on his laurels. Descending like a Texas Norther onto the Granite State, the dashing southerner launched a flurry of attacks upon Jackson and his record among the blue collar voters, arguing that he was far too liberal to defend their cultural interests. The charges were leveled at every campaign stop, Connally pressing every advantage as he mimicked Reagan in connecting with the retail-oriented New Hampshire voters. Jackson struggled to respond initially, mostly due to the fact he had been the positive candidate during the 1972 campaign – leaving the attacks to the pugilist Wallace. He found his footing, charging Connally with a “Near-Republican record,” but it was too late to stench the bleeding.
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With the twin victories for Hatfield and Reagan in Minnesota and New Hampshire respectively, the Republican race had reached a basic equilibrium. Hatfield was strong among the McCarthyite and western moderates, Reagan among the Liberty Conservative Coolidgervatives and moderate Conservatives, while Agnew took the Republican populists, Goldwater base, and a majority of African-Americans. Thus, the losses in the first two stated didn’t faze the Agnew campaign. The South was his chance at getting back into contention, and the Governor hadn’t made any major errors. Therefore, with the southern state of Virginia came up next on the queue Agnew’s campaign were confident in the beginning of his rise.
The overconfidence proved to be his undoing. Campaigning in the Midwest while complacent that the endorsements of senior VA Republicans and his status as the governor of the neighboring state ended in Reagan’s team catching him napping and stealing the Old Dominion from his grasp. Credit largely rested on the advice of Roger Stone, who collaborated with Bill Casey and John Sears to hit his opponents in their base territory to throw them off guard. Victories in swing areas like PA or OH would look good, but winning home turf areas like the south and Pacific Northwest would deal a decisive blow against the Gipper’s rivals.
Meanwhile, Virginia was not ignored by the two Democratic heavyweights. Connally, like Agnew, considered VA as part of his Southern firewall that would provide the rock-ribbed pedestal for his seizure of the nomination. Smarting from NH, Jackson publically made it known that he was letting the dice fly high and contesting the state with his entire campaign. Choosing instead to focus resources elsewhere, McFall wisely backed out of the clash of the titans developing in ground zero for the Civil War.
Both communonationalists of the highest order, and both with high name recognition (Jackson as VP and Connally as a particularly active Treasury Secretary), the fight came to one between regions and obscure issues regarding social policy and experience. Connally cast himself as the favorite son and Wallace’s successor, a son of the Confederacy that could better represent southern interests more than the “Cascade Yankee” Jackson. Jackson fired back with his dutiful service in bringing about the Wallace agenda, and hit Connally in his lack of foreign policy experience. “To be effective on the world stage, you must be a steady hand on the tiller. Secretary Connally has not proven himself to be that, and we certainly can’t have one with reputations for bombast [Agnew] or wild solutions so outside the mainstream [Reagan],” he said in a debate in Arlington four days before the primary.
Additionally, Virginia had cemented its new status as the third primary state after MH and NH.
Called it!
Wait, if this is an inverse 2004, does that mean a charismatic optimistic Republican is gonna win a landslide in 1976?
It looks like Scoop against the Gipper.
Also with Reagan and a Liberty Conservative Agnew, this may be the best Republican field in history. YMMV
(BTW, the word is stanch-sometimes spelled staunch-if your bleeding has a stench, consult your doctor)
Also with Reagan and a Liberty Conservative Agnew, this may be the best Republican field in history. YMMV
(BTW, the word is stanch-sometimes spelled staunch-if your bleeding has a stench, consult your doctor)