Marshall Plan aids the USSR

In OTL, the US spent billions building up western Europe to prevent the expanse of the Soviet Union; on the other hand, although the USSR was also flattened after the war, the US declined to send any aid to the Communist nation (the US has defended this as saying that it was in response to Stalin's refusal to stage free elections in the nations he liberated; the Russians claim that Stalin took those nations AFTER the US denied the much-needed aid money).

One scenario:

Now, WI Truman secretly promises to send aid on the condition that Stalin be removed from power? Although the public viewed him as "Uncle Joe," Truman realized Stalin's character after meeting the man (as well as from reports from the Yalta conference), and understood that Stalin was not the best man to rule a powerful nation. Perhaps this suggestion could be slipped to Zhukov, or Khruschev, or Mikoyan, that removal of Stalin could result in the West's acceptance of Soviet domination of eastern Europe and billions of dollars in aid (note, the West could easily go back on this and start to call for free elections in those Western states, but I'm pretty sure that the aid would have to be absolutely guarenteed before anyone moved on Stalin).

Possible TL:

POD: May 8th, 1947: For VE day, several American commanders, including Eisenhower, propose a meeting of the top military commanders of the Allies and the Soviets; billed as the "Reunion of Berlin," it is seen by some as a way to reignite the friendship that had existed during the war years, and which many people fear is being lost to an atmosphere of hostility. The entire affair is the brainchild of Eisenhower, a good friend of Marshall Zhukov, who is shocked to find that most people in Washington believe that there will be a war and are actively posturing against the USSR. That the Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army will be attending the reunion is a powerful sign, and Stalin, although already planning on sending Zhukov into relative exile as commander of a unit in Odessa, is forced to send the Marshall of the Soviet Union to avoid being "shown up" by America.

During the reunion, Eisenhower is able to speak candidly with Zhukov, a man he respects as a friend and an ally. Zhukov tells Eisenhower that his invitation to the United States by Ike, although a friendly gesture, has sabotaged Zhukov's status in the USSR by making him seem dangerous to Stalin. Eisenhower tells his friend that the US people don't want war, but the government is terrified of aggressive Soviet actions, and Zhukov corrects him in the now famous line: "Do not mistake Soviet actions for Stalin actions! You want war with Stalin, not with the Soviet Union!"

The USSR, at this point, had been left out of the billions of dollars in general aid that had been given to France and Great Britain; Eisenhower again explained why this was. There had been talks, however, of another aid package, this one more detailed and planned, that would soon be given to western Europe. Eisenhower is sure that none of this much-needed capital will reach the USSR, but he and Zhukov hatch a plan during the last night of the reunion, over two bottles (one vodka, one whiskey): if Zhukov is somehow able to remove Stalin from power, then Eisenhower will make some of their talks (particularly the Soviet desire for peace and friendship, according to Zhukov) public, and will place his reputation (akin to Zhukov's and beloved by the American people) behind the push to extend aid to the USSR.

Zhukov wastes no time, realizing that, particularly with this "reunion," his days are numbered in the eyes of Stalin. He contacts Khruschev, who had been one of the strongest men in the USSR prior to his falling in the eyes of Stalin (and subsequent removal from all positions of power) and Anastas Mikoyan, commissar of trade. Khruschev realizes that his life could very well be forfeit, having been removed from the positions which made him so powerful, and Mikoyan understands that aid from and peace with the West, rather than war, is the only way the USSR can survive. Within a matter of weeks, the three of them gather a power base, the most important of which is the Red Army, which is staunchly behind Zhukov.

When the orders come informing Zhukov that he has been removed from his position as commander of all Soviet ground forces and assigned to a military base in Odessa, the Triumvirate act; within 6 hours, T-34 tanks roll through the streets of Moscow and encircle the Kremlin. An unknown assassin, believed to be a Red Army operative, kills Stalin by stabbing him in the base of the neck with an ice pick as Stalin looks out the window in shock at the tanks. The death, so similar to that of Leon Trotsky, sends a clear message throughout the Soviet elite: Stalin died a traitor. The public, however, is told that Stalin had suffered a heart attack, and that the Red Army troops were sent out to ensure peace and stability. Knowing to destroy the eggs along with the viper, Mikoyan suggests that the NKVD, with its Georgian leader Lavrenti Beria, also be eliminated; although the NKVD office is able to hold out for a few hours, it is eventually destroyed and Beria, accused of plotting to overthrow the USSR upon hearing of Stalin's death, is executed.

The Triumvirate now begin to glare at eachother, but come to an agreement: rather than one ruling the Soviet Union, the office of General Secretary is abolished and turned into dozens of minor jobs, and a ruling council of three will guide the USSR.

As news of Stalin's death reverberates throughout the world, Eisenhower speaks to his friend George C. Marshall, the former general and Secretary of State, who is already planning the aid package that would be known as the Marshall Plan. Eisenhower tells him of the meeting with Zhukov and the sincere Soviet desire for peace with the west, and hints that, if the Soviets aren't helped, the US will be blamed for aggression. It is further hinted that Eisenhower will make public his meeting with Zhukov, and, as such, the "warmongering" of the leadership would ensure that the Democrats would be hounded out of office. Eisenhower goes so far as to state that he himself would run for office to ensure that World War III does not come about.

Thus, in mid 1948, the Marshall Plan is enacted, with some $13 billion going to western Europe, and an additional $4.8 billion dollars invested in the Soviet Union, with another $3 billion spread out over the various eastern European states held by the USSR. The conditions, agreed to by the Council of Three, are that mild capitalism, akin to the NEP, is allowed to exist, and that a timetable is given to the Soviet occupation of eastern Europe; the final date is set to be May 8th, 1960, the fifteenth anniversery of the victory over the Nazis. The Council, however, makes the West agree to recognize the states, even if they elect Communist governments, and the West, somewhat reluctantly, agrees. Thus, the Mikoyan Plan is enacted with the USSR, which diverts a great deal of the Marshall Plan aid directly to the eastern European nations, ensuring that their standard of living under Communism is high enough that it, plus the Soviet control of press and other factors, will ensure that the regions remain under Soviet rule. The one exception to this is east Germany, which the Soviets refuse to simply relinquish so quickly, and which is given a time table of 1975.


What do you guys think? Plausible?
 

Valamyr

Banned
There just wasnt enough money to rebuild the east too. It was one of the greatest fears in the US of the architechs of the plan, that the USSR might try to grab its share too.

Thrice the plan was revised to harshen the "terms" that the future benefactors would need to submit to in order to benefit. The third revision was pretty much unacceptable for any country that wasnt already de-facto a US vassal. It included complete access to several kinds of facilities that would have basically allowed the US to know everything about the Soviet army.

One of the side effects of this ever-harsher deal was to anger legimitate allies in western europes, causing down the line some splits in the alliance. Of course it was easier to blame the mistrusts that followed on De Gaulle's desillusions of grandeur.

So this is a POD that US legislators definitely envisioned in OTL. And they made damn sure it wouldnt happen. Even if by some odd miracle it did, the US would have been very hard pressed to come up with enough ressources without serious cuts at home. There was a limit to the "endless" prosperity brought by the war.
 
Well, without the expenses that the Cold War brought (including keeping a large military after the war, something the US had never done before), the economy wouldn't be too different than OTL. And with someone like Ike backing it, and threatening to let the public know that the government is trying to force a war, Congress would be hard pressed to turn down aid to the Soviets, especially when they basically agree to release eastern Europe.
 
If the Soviet Union had a saner leadership and the Cold war were avoided would Truman have been able to sell the idea of Marshall aid even to Western Europe- let alone to the Soviet Union and allies?
 
true, but the west has a history already of trying to stick it to the soviets. wilson sent american troops in to fight the with the whites against the reds in the civil war.
 
On CNN's Cold War series, I seem to remember that the Marshall Plan originally was open in theory to the Soviets, but that Truman had no intention of giving aid to the Soviets and apparently made those intentions clear but not openly.

I agree with Cow defender, keep going on this one. It is fresh and new and has potential.

Derek, why wouldn't Truman have been able to sell the idea of a Marshall Plan if the USSR had a saner leadership? Stalin was paranoid, but his intentions were understandable in that he now desperately wanted MAJOR security for the USSR, although that made him look more threatening than he actual may have been (at least immediately after WWII) and besides, his little swings in attitude didn;t help. The Marshall Plan was intended to allow Europe (but only western Europe in OTL) to rebuild after the devastation of WWII, not to give them money to build up armies against the USSR. The money was also provided to keep western Europe from turning to communism, but its main purpose was to help western Europe back onto its feet.


Valamyr, with a sane Soviet leadership that promised a reduction in the size of its armed forces and the end to the occupation (but not necessarily the domination and control) of eastern Europe, then Truman could realistically cut back the US Army's numbers. The money needed to sustain 10 million men under arms would understandably be a lot, so if the US armed forces are cut back to around 2 million (Army, Navy and the new Airforce) then there should be no reason for Truman to make domestic cuts to support an additional $7.8 billion, and even if domestic cuts were made, they probably wouldn't be too large in any event. Also, the promise of even limited access to the Soviet market, would probably be a good deal for a few extra billion dollars to rebuild the place anyway. After all it makes no sense to have limited access to the Soviet Union commercially if everybody is too damn poor and homeless to buy your stuff. If they have homes and workplaces again, as would be funded by the Marshall Plan, then within a few years they should be able to buy American products...

True Churchill wouldn't like it, but then Churchill wasn't there anymore having been voted out. In addition, I would expect that the Soviet leadership would try to influence the Greek communists to stop fighting in the civil war and maybe try to join government. Heck the Soviets might even encourage western European communist parties to go into government by more peaceful means (as in no more sudden and massive strikes like in Italy), since that would facilitate western Europe rebuilding faster which would require the USA to pump less money from the Plan into western Europe and thereby free up fund to be pumped into the USSR and eastern Europe under the Plan.
 
1947 - With a sane and seemingly friendly leadership firmly controlling the USSR, Eisenhower, believing world peace to be assured in his lifetime, resigns as Army Chief of Staff and takes up the Presidency of Columbia University. His invitation to his good friend Georgi Zhukov, now Commissar of War and a member of the Triumvirate, to come to the United States as his guest is renewed, and extended to the other two members, Nikita Khruschev, the Commissar of the Interior, and Anastas Mikoyan, Commissar of Finance. In an historic occasion, the three accept the offer and come to the United States. Truman, understandably angry that it is Eisenhower, not he, who seems to be making such momentous decisions (not to mention that the Soviet leaders' response mentions Eisenhower, rather than the President of the United States), and still distrustful of the Soviets, snubs the Triumvirate by refusing to meet them during their week-long stay, citing "scheduling problems." This is an insult, and Eisenhower is furious; Zhukov mentions that it seemed as if Eisenhower, the general, was the one who acted political whereas Truman, the politician, acted the blunt warmonger. Khruschev, in his blunt manner (which quickly endeared him to Eisenhower, who disliked sly politicians), privately called Truman "a wolf in pig's clothing."

The end of the week, however, brought even worse news for Eisenhower: in response to the formation of various "people's committees" and a "people's republic" declared by resistance leaders in South Korea, Truman, accusing the Soviets of trying to expand their influence first into China and now Korea, broke off negotiations over the reunion of Korea and began crushing to resistance. Eisenhower, in disbelief that his friend Zhukov could have betrayed him, was, at first, in shock, and wrote in his diary that "it appears I had been a fool to trust Georgi."

Zhukov, after seeing that Eisenhower had not attempted to contact him over the actions, and wishing to use the former general as a peace feeler before the Triumvirate chose a harsher path, contacted Eisenhower himself. Over the phone, Zhukov told Eisenhower that the Soviet Union had absolutely nothing to do with the uprisings in Korea, and told him to look at "a damn map of the country," pointing out that the uprisings were occuring in the far southwest and southeast, not near the 38th parallel, which, he reminded Eisenhower, Truman had sprung on the USSR and the Koreans themselves at the end of World War II. "The Soviet Union can't afford guns and butter so soon after the war!" was, according to Eisenhower, the straw that broke the camel's back, and he realized that the Democrats, having built a massive industry to create a military for World War II and keep the nation working and prosperous, was creating more "hot spots" to justify maintaining and increasing that military. This was the first time the term "military industrial complex" appeared in Eisenhower's personal writings.

Eisenhower told Zhukov that, at the moment, he could not do anything to aid the situation, but told Zhukov to stay the high road. "Keep your noses clean, and I'll drag Truman's through the mud." Georgi Zhukov, perhaps the strongest man in the Soviet Union, now had a fateful decision to make: the communist North Koreans, under Kim Il-Sung, were calling on the Soviets for aid in a pre-emptive attack to take advantage of the uprisings in the south and reunify the Korean peninsula. Furthermore, the Politburo, outraged at the insult to the Triumvirate by Truman and the slap in the face of the Soviet Union by America's withdrawal from the bargaining table, called for a show of support with the communist forces. The decision, however, lay with the Triumvirate, and Zhukov placed his entire career (and, he was certain, his life) at stake by convincing Khruschev and Mikoyan to wait. "The Americans have an election year next year," he argued. "Eisenhower might decide that peace is worth dirtying himself in the world of politics."

Zhukov's words proved to be prophetic; in 1948, Eisenhower announced his candidacy as a Republican for the office of President. His support was staggering: the "I Like Ike" campaign, coupled with his military history as the hero of World War II and his championing of global peace, hamstrung Truman's campaign from the beginning. The Democrats' accusations that Eisenhower was a Communist-loving traitor fell on deaf ears, as Eisenhower had proved himself as a general, and the Republican counter that Truman, having missed the glory of World War II, wanted to make a new World War, scared even much of the Democratic ticket into voting for Eisenhower. In 1948, Dwight D. Eisenhower was sworn in as the thirty fourth president of the United States of America.
 
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