Man in the High Castle-style US Invasion repelled. What happens next?

[Marklin]

This is based on a discussion over on discord with @pattontank12. The premise is that the Axis are able to secure total victory in the old world as in Man in the High Castle. However, while Man in the High Castle had the US falling to the combined might of the Axis powers, this scenario imagines that the Axis invasion reaches America's shores and there is fighting on the east and west coasts, but the invasion is successfully repelled by the US and the Axis Powers are kept out of North America. What would the rest of the 20th century look like and, more specifically, how would the US be impacted?

An invasion of the US would most definitely impact the US's psyche strongly. The military budget would likely be insane, as would the amount of armed people in general. I can also see the US potentially being more "european" in outlook, having seen war on it's shores for the first time since the civil war. It's also probably gonna be in the American psyche forever, even more than OTL WW2 is already. I also think that the Axis Powers would be hit hard by this failure, possibly leading to them falling apart in the 1950s or 1960s.

 

[CV12Hornet]

The US has the technological and economic heft to compete with the Axis, but doesn’t have the raw mass to take the fight to them in Europe. I think the US strategy, beyond beefing up their armed forces as far as possible, would be a combination of building up Allies that can aid it in a transatlantic invasion down the line, while pursuing a peripheral strategy to remove Axis Allies, clients, and even major members from the board. Japan, isolated as they are from support from Germany and vulnerable to the US’ hardware-heavy war preferences, is likely to get the US’ undivided attention and they can’t survive that.

 

[Blue cat]

This is based on a discussion over on discord with @pattontank12. The premise is that the Axis are able to secure total victory in the old world as in Man in the High Castle. However, while Man in the High Castle had the US falling to the combined might of the Axis powers, this scenario imagines that the Axis invasion reaches America's shores and there is fighting on the east and west coasts, but the invasion is successfully repelled by the US and the Axis Powers are kept out of North America. What would the rest of the 20th century look like and, more specifically, how would the US be impacted?

An invasion of the US would most definitely impact the US's psyche strongly. The military budget would likely be insane, as would the amount of armed people in general. I can also see the US potentially being more "european" in outlook, having seen war on it's shores for the first time since the civil war. It's also probably gonna be in the American psyche forever, even more than OTL WW2 is already. I also think that the Axis Powers would be hit hard by this failure, possibly leading to them falling apart in the 1950s or 1960s.

Presuming nuclear fission weapons existed in this fictional alternative time line, perhaps there is a race to develop deliverable thermonuclear weapons along with suitable delivery systems ? To make things interesting maybe the Axis lead in rocketry and missiles while the US has the lead in developing deliverable fusion weapons along with heavy bombers to deliver them ? Perhaps the US (and presumably parts of Canada and Mexico ?) provides the US with enough space to ride out sporadic attacks with missile delivered fission bombs while the US manufactures enough deliverable fusion weapons in the hopes of delivering a knock out blow in the near future, while launching their own bomber attacks with fission weapons from time to time.

One can speculate endlessly I suppose.

 

[pattontank12]

I'm imagining that the initial invasion of North America would "sort of" resemble this during the first wave.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I think whatever allowed the invasion to happen produces more of a change than the aftermath of the invasion

 

[CHKeeley]

Even if we handwave utter German dominance in Europe, it is really hard to see a German invasion force getting across the Atlantic or anywhere near American coastlines. There would be massive logistical issues because there just isn't anywhere good for the Germans to launch from. The combined might of Allied navies could contest the Germans pretty much anywhere, and a gargantuan flotilla of ships with hundreds of thousands of embarked soldiers is just an easy way to get the worst disaster in German military history on your hands. Long range bombers in the 1950s could maybe do the trick, but it's still hard to see the Germans taking places like Iceland, Greenland, or Bermuda from an entrenched and well-supported Allied force. The prospect of a Japanese assault on California is even more unlikely just because of how outclassed they were historically.

If this happened though, I would think you'd be left with a very militarized American society. A constant fear of infiltrators and spies from Germany and Japan, and a lasting siege mentality. A massive military budget and a willingness to take brinksmanship to the edge is probably in the cards. Without a post-war demobilization, Republicans likely have to shift towards Democratic positions on a number of key issues like foreign policy and the size of the Federal government. It would be political suicide to be advocating demobilization and deregulation in a total war environment like this. As for strategy, I would imagine it would be a policy of constant probing on the fringes of each empire and trying to turn resistance movements into sinkholes for blood and treasure while establishing safe havens for bombers and missiles within striking range of Germany and Japan. The US would place high priority on Greenland, Iceland, and Africa to get staging grounds to poke at the Reich's frontiers however they can while putting the screws to what will probably be an extremely overstretched Japan. Even within the bounds of the scenario, I think the Japanese would unravel completely under American pressure and the strain of guerrilla resistance. With them eventually out of the way, you'd likely see major American focus on developing a friendly China and using Siberia to cobble together something coherent east of the A-A line or the Urals that could pose a threat to the Germans. Eventually, I think they'd be able to encircle the Axis powers in Europe through control of the North Atlantic fringe, allies in much of eastern Eurasia and sub-Saharan Africa, and probably the British Isles at some point. They could invade really from all sides and open a multi-front war that the Germans just couldn't hope to face. Through the sheer costs and difficulties of keeping all the balls in the air at once, the Nazi empire would collapse in on itself.

I haven't considered nuclear weapons since it's my belief that the Reich's major cities would be irradiated wastelands before an Axis invasion force ever even got halfway to the American coast. That factor changes the dynamic significantly though - I just don't know how you bring them into the equation without contradicting the total Axis victory scenario...

 

[mr morbius]

I'm imagining that the initial invasion of North America would "sort of" resemble this during the first wave.

yeah this thread will probably just be ,,Fall of Liberty but the US High Command has more than 2 working braincells combined"

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Even if we handwave utter German dominance in Europe, it is really hard to see a German invasion force getting across the Atlantic or anywhere near American coastlines. There would be massive logistical issues because there just isn't anywhere good for the Germans to launch from.

The only plausible solution I can think of is for the Germans and/or Japanese to move men and materiel to a sympathetic South American nation, set up air and naval bases there, and launch their invasion of North America from said bases.

 

[M79]

Look for a radically militarized US seeking revenge with aircraft like the B-36. Ireland would likely be a major target of espionage with spies being dropped into the Reich and a Cold War running the gamut. Nuclear weapons would potentially come into use later depending on the scenario but the Space Race and Vietnam equivalents here would be vastly more intense.

 

[Paladín Wulfen]

Everyone talks about how the invasion as such is impossible. Honestly I see the investment being stopped by the Appalachians and Sierra Nevada respectively. The USA would manage to expel the Japs and Nazs from America but I suppose that the USA would opt for an initial approach of supporting the rebellions either in the United Kingdom (Reichskommisariat Britannia) France, perhaps Spain and Portugal, Norway and North Africa such as Morocco.

I see the USA imposing strong propaganda and restricting the descendants of Germans as they did with the Japs for fear of a fifth column.

At the same time, I see how the USA will view with fury any possible Latin American government that is too pro-German, going so far as to foment revolutions or military interventions. All while preparations are being made to invade Europe and Japan.

 

[M79]

The only plausible solution I can think of is for the Germans and/or Japanese to move men and materiel to a sympathetic South American nation, set up air and naval bases there, and launch their invasion of North America from said bases.

Seize the navies of the other European powers mostly intact after keeping an isolationist US out of the war altogether. Give seven to ten years of German preparation with no change in the 1930s (lack of) counterintelligence in the US with disbelief that the Germans would be that stupid. A total surprise might allow the Germans to take over chunks of the Northeast or coastal South but barring deployment of numerous nuclear weapons it will not go well once the US gets over the initial shock. Germany under that case has maybe four to six months to get its puppet Neu Reich up and running self-sufficiently while carving up the continental US or else she is likely to fail.

 

[pattontank12]

I expect this summarizes the post War American mentality following the failure of the Axis invasion. With the martial seige mentality getting deeply ingrained.

 

[thaddeus]

Even if we handwave utter German dominance in Europe, it is really hard to see a German invasion force getting across the Atlantic or anywhere near American coastlines. There would be massive logistical issues because there just isn't anywhere good for the Germans to launch from. The combined might of Allied navies could contest the Germans pretty much anywhere, and a gargantuan flotilla of ships with hundreds of thousands of embarked soldiers is just an easy way to get the worst disaster in German military history on your hands. Long range bombers in the 1950s could maybe do the trick, but it's still hard to see the Germans taking places like Iceland, Greenland, or Bermuda from an entrenched and well-supported Allied force. The prospect of a Japanese assault on California is even more unlikely just because of how outclassed they were historically.

the Germans were aware (enough) of the cryolite mine on Greenland and processing plant near Pittsburgh to list them as hypothetical targets, in some victory (in Europe) scenario the bauxite mine(s) in Dutch Surinam might become a target also?

my view the oil infrastructure in the Caribbean and Texas coastline, along with the tankers would be the most vulnerable part of the US.

 

[Blue cat]

Look for a radically militarized US seeking revenge with aircraft like the B-36. Ireland would likely be a major target of espionage with spies being dropped into the Reich and a Cold War running the gamut. Nuclear weapons would potentially come into use later depending on the scenario but the Space Race and Vietnam equivalents here would be vastly more intense.

My recollection is that the film / series (on Amazon ?) featured a nuclear attack on Washington DC (presumably with a fission weapon ?) so I sort of figured fission weapons would have come into play in the scenario outlined by the OP ?

 

[CHKeeley]

the Germans were aware (enough) of the cryolite mine on Greenland and processing plant near Pittsburgh to list them as hypothetical targets, in some victory (in Europe) scenario the bauxite mine(s) in Dutch Surinam might become a target also?

my view the oil infrastructure in the Caribbean and Texas coastline, along with the tankers would be the most vulnerable part of the US.

Sure, my objection didn't have anything to do with why the Germans might want to capture these territories. I was dealing primarily with the possibility that they actually could capture them.

 

[Garrison]

Sure, my objection didn't have anything to do with why the Germans might want to capture these territories. I was dealing primarily with the possibility that they actually could capture them.

Yeah that's the elephant in the room. The Man in the High Castle is an interesting work of fiction, a plausible scenario for an alt-history it is not.

 

[pattontank12]

Yeah that's the elephant in the room. The Man in the High Castle is an interesting work of fiction, a plausible scenario for an alt-history it is not.

Which this thread sort of addresses by asking "what if the Axis actually tried to invade America?" The answer being they failed massively.

Personally I am wondering how military technology would develop here. Since you'd probably have a USA preparing to defend its shores from further attack. While both Germany and Japan would be fighting massive insurgencies.

 

[CV12Hornet]

Which this thread sort of addresses by asking "what if the Axis actually tried to invade America?" The answer being they failed massively.

Personally I am wondering how military technology would develop here. Since you'd probably have a USA preparing to defend its shores from further attack. While both Germany and Japan would be fighting massive insurgencies.

Massive amounts of money sunk into the Navy, continental air defense, and nuclear strike. The Army and TacAir are probably going to have to subsist on OTL post-Korea levels of funding until and unless the US thinks it has the opportunity for a massed ground offensive.

 

[M79]

Even if Germany managed to wrangle the USSR in 1941 and force submission of the British around that time they'd need a decade to build a Navy to speak of and would *absolutely* need the element of surprise.

Based on prior German planning the invasion points might be Sandy Hook NJ and a (Salisbury?) beach on the Massachusetts/New Hampshire border with potentially another landing somewhere in the southern US - maybe Wilmington NC or Virginia Beach. Infrastructure farther South at that time will be a problem as will the lack of major highways outside of the Northeast for a mechanized army. Germany had eyed the Hoover Dam before the war and Canaris might use his ties to the AbWehr to try to tip off the Americans via disloyal spies. Assuming he is removed or neutralized, expect massive levels of sabotage. Also expect that by 1947 the US armed forces have not sat entirely idle nor has Canada (which might carry on the fight), they will be taking cues from the Allies elsewhere and likely getting examples of tech from underground movements in Europe. Germany will have late 1st gen/early 2nd gen jets in the skies along with heavy naval firepower but as previously mentioned they need a base of operations nearby (Newfoundland, Cuba, etc.) which will also likely tip off and concern American authorities. Again, unless they bring in lots of nukes and hit several high-level targets at once for shock-and-awe for immediate surrender, I give them four to six months or the invasion fails within eighteen months. At its highwater I would expect most of the coastal northeast to be overrun but no farther west than Pittsburgh nor further south than Richmond if not Baltimore or Philadelphia.

 

[Garrison]

Which this thread sort of addresses by asking "what if the Axis actually tried to invade America?" The answer being they failed massively.

You misunderstand. If the Third Reich controls Eurasia they can build up a massive force, the question is how do they achieve this victory? In a novel it can be glossed over but no one has ever really offered a credible scenario for it in Post-1900.