Italy changes sides in 1942

[Gudestein]

Looking at this thread (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/occupied-germany-and-austria.280435/) I felt like posting a question, but saw it was locked.
It became about partitioning Germany and who would want a piece.
The suggestion I wanted to post was: What if the Italians had offered to switch sides right after Stalingrad and El Alamein. Their price would be all of Tyrol and with the suggestion that all bordering claims should be supported postwar? Eg. a good chunk for poland, Some Saarland for France, South-Schleswig for Denmark an what not. End result a rather smaller Germany and provided the Allies unlike OTL could take advantage of it, a much faster end to WW2
Would this be realistic as an Italian offer at that time?

 

[Magnum]

Italy had no use for Tyrol, and it would simply introduce a potential fifth column.

What they would want IMHO would be to have their conquests and borders acknowledged - Ethiopia, Dalmatia, Albania and the pre-war colonies would be at the top of the list

 

[Gudestein]

Italy had no use for Tyrol, and it would simply introduce a potential fifth column.

What they would want IMHO would be to have their conquests and borders acknowledged - Ethiopia, Dalmatia, Albania and the pre-war colonies would be at the top of the list

What I am proposing is Benny changing sides. You sure he knows he has no use for Tyrol?

 

[Magnum]

What I am proposing is Benny changing sides. You sure he knows he has no use for Tyrol?

Austrian Tyrol?

 

[JohnR]

What I am proposing is Benny changing sides. You sure he knows he has no use for Tyrol?

He would definitely be more interested in keeping his empire and having it recognised. What if there was a change in leadership though?

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Difficult to say since there was no other coherent 'leadership' in 1942. Mussolini had been so effective at undercutting or dissolving every other possible opposing group, out side of or in the Fascist party its difficult to see any policy outside Il Duce himself. It would be easy to say the other Fascist leaders would try to retain their little empire. but you'd have to examine their individual record to obtain a idea of how serious or united they would be in this.

 

[Catspoke]

This can't happen with Mussolini in charge, but could play out as follows:

After Stalingrad and El Alamein, but particularly the destruction of the 8th army in Russia December 42/January 43. Mussolini sees his future end and flees to Spain to be never heard of again.

Just like after July 43 the new people affirm their loyalty to the Axis, but start negotiating with the Allies.

The Maximum the Italians can hope to obtain is their pre 1935 borders (no Albania, no Ethiopia). The Allies aren't going to promise anything tho. As far as the actual results much depends on their performance getting out. If they deliver Tunisia, Sicily, Sardinia, the Aegean islands, Southern Italy and Rome to the Allies for free in this TL , maybe their more like Allies and less than Axis in post war considerations.

 

[marathag]

Austrian Tyrol?

They got Tyrol right up the Brenner Pass, what they wanted after WWI

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Their price would be all of Tyrol

No, they have no desire for it, an Austrian satellite state would be much preferable and even that's not all that appealing in 1942.

The suggestion I wanted to post was: What if the Italians had offered to switch sides right after Stalingrad and El Alamein.

If it's after Stalingrad then it's already 1943. And in the specified time Italy has too many of its armies abroad, stationed alongside or (in the case of the 8th Army) completely surrounded by their Axis allies. In fact they'd probably be even more vulnerable to something like Operation Achse than they were in the summer/fall of 1943.

 

[Magnum]

In fact they'd probably be even more vulnerable to something like Operation Achse than they were in the summer/fall of 1943.

They wouldn't be. Achse hinged on German troops being allowed to peacefully cross the Alps "to fight the Allies" before hostilities broke out.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

They wouldn't be. Achse hinged on German troops being allowed to peacefully cross the Alps "to fight the Allies" before hostilities broke out.

Didn't germans bound for North Africa have to go through Italy?

edit: and if not couldn't a similar excuse, like putting Herkules back on the table, be made up?

 

[euromellows]

Interesting question. I agree the Allies are not going to agree to any Italian conquests post 1945. Even the retention of Libya will likely come with some conditions.

Not sure on how the rest of the war plays out, but Italian politics after the war will be interesting. The fascists are discredited and likely history, but there's a good chance the monarchy survives.

 

[GTStinger]

How about this sequence of events.
Mers-el-Kebir negotiations successful. Large part of French navy sails to Caribbean.
Larger force attacks Taranto. More Italian ships taken off the board.
General O'Conner capture butterflied away.
Tripoli surrounded in 1941. Last minute push to reinforce results in resources diverted from Greek campaign and ultimately lots of Italians captured in cut off Tripoli with more losses inflicted on Italian navy.
Allies win battle of Crete.
Free French come to power in Algeria and Tunisia.
Dodecanes isolated and invaded in 1942.


Now the Italian narrative is substantially rewritten to a downward spiral by late 1942 and Mussolini (or others) might be looking for an exit strategy.

 

[Gudestein]

Actually the tyrol idea came from the first thread posted above. The overall question is much more interesting.
Lets simply discuss the premise that Benny in charge offers to change side. He Can offer a southern front in Europe and the isolation of the german army in Africa. Also, quite some problems in the east I presume. Quite a bargaining position actually.