Israel in WWI

[Zealot]

I'm working in a TL where Israel already exists since 1880. This Israel, on the eve of WWI is a British Protectorate, comprising roughly current State of Israel + West Bank & Gaza, and with a population of 1-1.2 milion with a 85 % jewish majority. Port of Haifa is already running , and there is a railway system connecting the major cities with Damascus, Cairo and Hejaz railway. The Government System is a Dominion's one, and there is a Home Guard subordinated to the British Command.

My question is: How can this situation alter OTL's Sinai and Palestine scenario?. First, we'll have a frontline very close to Damascus, and the border between British Empire and Ottomans is a bit more extesive. There is no buffer zone between them (as in OTL Sinai), and the mobility of troops will be easier thanks to the extension of the railway. The Port of Haifa gives also extra opportunities for the deploying of troops and weapons. Will these conditions shorten the way to victory for the Entente (greater closseness to the Mesopotamian front, safer Suez Canal, possibility of dispatching more troops to Gallipoli?) Or, on the contrary, the static nature of that war, the predominance of the defence over the attack and the secondary value of this front in OTL will make everything the same?

I put this question to all the WWI fans, I hope you will find this challenge exciting. By the way, I'm sorry for my terrible english!!

 

[GreatScottMarty]

Welcome to the board

First things first, I am not a WW1 expert. Here is my two cents. I think Gallipoli goes away and Allenby ends up engaging in Palestine earlier.

 

[Cook]

In World War One the Ottomans main defensive line ran from Gaza to Beersheba and wasn’t breached until 1917 on the third try when the Australian 4th Light Horse Brigade overran Beersheba.

Without a defence line there they’d have to take up positions somewhere on the Golan and as GreatScott says, this campaign would likely come far earlier in the war.

But how do you get a Jewish dominated British Protectorate in Palestine in 1880?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

What a wonderful world this would be!

For Israel to be around it means WWI came at least 30 years late and WWII hasn't happened at all!

 

[black angel]

Hmmm, I'd say say that Israel would be fighting for it's life, the Ottomans will come down on them like bricks, Israel will surely under-mind the Arab Revolt in a big way.

 

[Mr.Wigglemunch]

How does the 85% Jewish population of 1.2mil come to be like this in Palestine in WW1?? In OTL wasn't it a meer 200,000 Arabs and a few Jews?

 

[Old Airman]

My question is: How can this situation alter OTL's Sinai and Palestine scenario?. First, we'll have a frontline very close to Damascus, and the border between British Empire and Ottomans is a bit more extesive. There is no buffer zone between them (as in OTL Sinai), and the mobility of troops will be easier thanks to the extension of the railway.

Turks were latecomers into WW1 show, joining the war in 1914 (it would be better for them not to join at all, but that's another story). It gives Dominion of Palestine good 4 months to raise the army and build the fortifications. Taking into account that Jewish leadership would be extremely aware of geographical features of the country (Jews studied it's geography for 2000+ years by reading The Book, and the whole Halutzim thing is bound to happen once settlement is started) and that North is a mountainous area, I would say that chances of Ottomans invading Palestine are extremely low. Newly raised IDF might even try an invasion of it's own (Damascus and Beirut are very tempting targets), but in this case it would be in for very painful lessons regarding effectiveness of machinegun fire against attacking infantry. After initial hothead period, I fully expect pretty stable and low-intensity frontline for a year or two. By spring 1916 IDF might be bold and prepared enough to teach Turks a lesson not less painful than one Russians gave them at Caucasus front. Russians took as much as supply lines across mountain country without railroads could support. For Middle Eastern theater, it means whole Syria

P.S. I'm moderately wankish here, but not too much. A stalemate in your universe would mean a victory for Ottomans.

 

[Old Airman]

How does the 85% Jewish population of 1.2mil come to be like this in Palestine in WW1??

I guess he's planning to Madagascar most of Eastern European Jewry to Palestine following Alexander III pogroms.

 

[Mikestone8]

I guess he's planning to Madagascar most of Eastern European Jewry to Palestine following Alexander III pogroms.

Well, there'd certainly have to be some kind of Holocaust to generate a migration on this scale.

Trouble is, why don't they just go to America? Huge numbers did even OTL, and there were no restrictive immigration laws in those days. Seems to me that what you'd really get (apart from a bigger Jewish population in the big cities), is a "Jewish" state somehere out west, which is dominated by Jews much as Utah is by Mormons. Wonder where it would be and what they'd call it.

 

[Zealot]

But how do you get a Jewish dominated British Protectorate in Palestine in 1880?

Well, that isn't yet the goal of this thread, but in outline this TL will comprise:

1 A more stable, economic and politically active jewish minority in Ottoman Palestine of aprox 25% of the population by 1800 (Jaffa remains a Salonika-like jewish city, )

2 Minor migrations pre-1880 (Damascus affair, Perushim) and decreasing arab population (Galilee earthquakes)

3 Palestine remains under Muhammed Ali's rule after Egyptian-Ottoman war
and loyal jewish immigration and investment are encouraged

4 Following the assassination of Alexander III, there's big pressure from Zionist across Europe for accepting more jews, a mini-war is fought.

5 Egyptian rule goes into chaos after Urabi's coup. British intervention in Egypt also results in the establishment of a Protectorate of Jewish Palestine (Britons are lobbied by influential British and European Jewry)

6. Population exchange: Ottoman jews flee to Palestinian haven, while arab inhabitants are expeled (yes, it's inevitable, but in this TL it happens at minor scale)

I know that the whole idea sounds a little ASBish....but think about the fact that OTL's Israel's History is always far more ASbish!!


[QUOTE=Grimm Reaper;3238889]What a wonderful world this would be![/QUOTE]

For Israel to be around it means WWI came at least 30 years late and WWII hasn't happened at all!

I don't know why the existence of an earlier Israel will avoid those major conflicts.... the existence of Zionism and even the Britih Mandate were minor themes in international arena. Prior to the WWI, the big tensions were located in the colonial race in Africa&Far East and the Balkans. Nor this Jewish Palestine will affect Hitler's rise to power: There¡s still the same jewish population in Europe than in OTL, and, anyway, this wasn't the main cause for Nazi victory in Germany

How does the 85% Jewish population of 1.2mil come to be like this in Palestine in WW1?? In OTL wasn't it a meer 200,000 Arabs and a few Jews?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_Palestine#Demographics_in_the_late_Ottoman_and_British_Mandate_periods
I've read the figures were higher

Well, there'd certainly have to be some kind of Holocaust to generate a migration on this scale.

Trouble is, why don't they just go to America? Huge numbers did even OTL, and there were no restrictive immigration laws in those days. Seems to me that what you'd really get (apart from a bigger Jewish population in the big cities), is a "Jewish" state somehere out west, which is dominated by Jews much as Utah is by Mormons. Wonder where it would be and what they'd call it.

In fact, there is also a mass migration of Russian Jews to USA like OTL. The bulk of Russian jewish choose the Americas, but a substantial minority (higher than OTL Aliyot http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliyah ) settles in a safer, more prosperous Palestine, under the protection of the British Empire, wich already holds a Jewish majority

 

[Sonya]

In the 1880s, the Zionist movement was made mainly of a small group of religious Russian Jews and was not a publicly known movement, especially seeing as the Zionists were afraid of Czar and held their first meeting on the border between Poland and Germany so the chances of them getting caught would be small.

The issue was only really brought to international attention by Herzl, who did his best to get a charter on Israel and even met with the leaders of Germany, Russia, Turkey and England. He was also the one who brought all the different Zionist movements together in the World Zionist Congress where they agreed on Basel program, which was a very important step in Zionism. So for Israel to be established in the 1880s the entire movement would have to start in early 19th century and have a Herzl-like that could organize them and start making political moves, no?

 

[Ofaloaf]

In the 1880s, the Zionist movement was made mainly of a small group of religious Russian Jews and was not a publicly known movement, especially seeing as the Zionists were afraid of Czar and held their first meeting on the border between Poland and Germany so the chances of them getting caught would be small.

The issue was only really brought to international attention by Herzl, who did his best to get a charter on Israel and even met with the leaders of Germany, Russia, Turkey and England. He was also the one who brought all the different Zionist movements together in the World Zionist Congress where they agreed on Basel program, which was a very important step in Zionism. So for Israel to be established in the 1880s the entire movement would have to start in early 19th century and have a Herzl-like that could organize them and start making political moves, no?

I thought that a major kick-start to Zionism was the Dreyfus Affair and French anti-semitism, yes? Maybe an earlier downfall of the Second Empire and loss of some French lands (defeat in Algeria, Alsace-Lorraine is lost somehow, something, I dunno) would spur on earlier anti-semitism in France and western Europe and thus kick-start Zionism outside of Russia.

The Ottomans, come to think of it, might be more supportive of this earlier Zionist movement, and might allow immigration on the condition that the settlers be loyal to Constantinople-- being defeated by Russia in 1878, this might be a good PR coup. On the other hand, these Jews might just go to Salonika instead, and I'd imagine that the Ottoman authories in Palestine might object to expansion there at the expense of the already-present Arab community.

Moreover, I can't see either the Disraeli or Gladstone premierships supporting such an endeavor. Disraeli, dispite being Jewish himself, was supportive of the Ottoman Empire. Gladstone, although critical of the Ottomans, was very reluctant to expand the empire and kind of stumbled into posession of Egypt and Sudan. I can't see Churchill or Chamberlain either being that supportive of a Zionist state in Palestine, although I know little about them.

 

[Zealot]

So for Israel to be established in the 1880s the entire movement would have to start in early 19th century and have a Herzl-like that could organize them and start making political moves, no?

Of course, if the jewish population in Palestine in this TL is higher before 1880 than in OTL, and remains politicaly active with strong ties with the european jewry, the Zionist idea is far less quixotic than in OTL. In fact, it's a realistic project wich has been planned earlier.