Is there any way for the Bosniaks to win the Bosnian War?

[TheWitheredStriker]

Currently in the post-1900 board, but demographical issues may necessitate a pre-1900 PoD. If this becomes the case, I will request a move to pre-1900.

This may be a potentially sensitive or controversial thread, as it will deal with an alternate Bosnian War, so let me just put this up here: what happened during the war was sickening and all sides have done horrible things that deserve nothing but condemnation. I do not condone anything messed up that may appear in this thread.
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I've seen countless threads on Serbia winning the Bosnian War (i.e. Bosnia is carved up) or having a Greater Serbia, and there are some threads on Croatia coming out bigger as well. But I'm not here to try to accomplish one of those two. I want to try to create a scenario wherein not the Serbs or Croats, but the Bosniaks win the Bosnian War.

A good example of what I'm looking for is Croatia. Croatia also had to deal with a breakaway Serb state, the Republic of Serbian Krajina. However, unlike in Bosnia with the Republika Srpska, Krajina was completely disbanded by the Croats after they successfully occupied it militarily (Operation Flash/Storm), and the bulk of its Serb population left Croatia shortly thereafter. How could the Bosniaks similarly defeat the Republika Srpska?

I've seen it stated that the Serbs' position had gotten pretty bad in 1995, and that, had Izetbegovic not agreed to the ceasefire, he could've captured Banja Luka if he wanted to, which would've almost certainly led to the collapse of the Republika Srpska. How accurate is this, though?

On a sidenote: I'm not sure if the 1990's demographics of B&H made a Bosniak victory plausible. Would it help if, with a pre-1900 PoD (which would require this thread to be moved there), the demographics in Bosnia were different, or its borders were changed? Say if there are more Muslims/Bosniaks somehow (so that the Serbs/Croats have less of a numbers advantage), or that somehow, Sandzak is part of Bosnia, or even both. I'm just spitballing here.

Again, I do not condone things like ethnic cleansing or any of the sort. I'm just trying to find a way for the Bosniaks to win the Bosnian War just like the Croats won the Croatian War of Independence.

 

[Ogrelord420]

Would require the Americans to openly and enthusiastically support Izetbegovic from the beginning

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Would require the Americans to openly and enthusiastically support Izetbegovic from the beginning

Seems logical to me. How could this be the case though?

I've seen suggestions that the VRS be much more violent and atrocious than they already were, like them massacring the Dutch peacekeeping forces, to incur a reaction from NATO, but that would probably happen later on in the war, which doesn't seem to match the "from the beginning" part.

 

[Mister Mister]

No, if they don't stay in alliance with Croats (accept federation of 3 national republics), OTL was pretty much the best they could get.
It was Croatian forces that were on verge of taking Banja Luka, not Bosniak.
But, even if they stay in alliance with Croats, the endgame would pretty much be the same, 32% of Serbs in BiH will not go anywhere, even if they got some military defeats, Serbia will not allow them being completely defeated.

 

[Marko]

the bulk of its Serb population left Croatia shortly thereafter.

Most of the Serb population left during the Operation retreating ahead of advancing Croatian forces. The decision of the local Serb leaders to evacuate was a blessing in disguise for Croatia as it reduced the potential for retaliatory killings.

How could the Bosniaks similarly defeat the Republika Srpska?

Without full foreign support, it would not be possible. It would also require at least supportive neutrality from the Croatian government and local Croats. IOT it was Croatian involvement that finally broke the stalemate and caused the VRS to collapse in late summer/autumn of 1995. ABiH would have needed years of further buildup and massive foreign investment to reach a state where they could do to the RS what Croatia did to RSK.

The Bosniaks were in a terrible position due to the fact the areas they controlled could be completely cut off if Serbs and Croats cooperated and could only be resupplied via air.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

I see. So a post-1900s PoD will be difficult, then. Could a pre-1900 PoD with better demographics for the Bosniaks increase their chances?

 

[Marko]

I see. So a post-1900s PoD will be difficult, then. Could a pre-1900 PoD with better demographics for the Bosniaks increase their chances?

Hard to say. The movement of people in the 18th and 19th centuries in what is today BiH was massive. There were at least three major and several minor (re)settlement waves that at the given time significantly changed the demographics of the area.

While better demographics for Bosniaks would give them a better position it would also need to involve changes in spatial distribution.

I am unsure how far back you would need to go but probably before the Orthodox and Catholic populations start to more strongly coalesce around Serb and Croat national identities (which were a continuation of earlier tribal/familial affiliations from medieval times).

 

[Declan]

A seemingly simple fix for that.

Turkey steps in.
I say "seemingly" because for this to happen you would have to butterfly quite a few people in Turkish politics. Essentially, you would need an Islamic oriented politicians in charge of Turkey at the time, someone like Erbakan. Out of their shared faith, this leader would extend military support to the Bosniaks.

Aside from the obvious weapons deliveries, Turkey could very well end putting boots on the ground as well. But for sure, there would be airstrikes and lots of them.

 

[Marko]

How would they do that without an approval from either Serbia or Croatia? I really can't see either Bulgaria or Greece being fine with Turkey launching airstrikes through their airspace needed to establish air dominance in order to bring sufficient men and material to Bosnia. Involvment of Turkey in my opinion is a recepy for an even worse disaster for Bosniaks than OTL already was.

I mean can you imagine the absolute media frenzy should Turkey decide to wage war in the Balkans again.

 

[nickmn]

A seemingly simple fix for that.

Turkey steps in.
I say "seemingly" because for this to happen you would have to butterfly quite a few people in Turkish politics. Essentially, you would need an Islamic oriented politicians in charge of Turkey at the time, someone like Erbakan. Out of their shared faith, this leader would extend military support to the Bosniaks.

Aside from the obvious weapons deliveries, Turkey could very well end putting boots on the ground as well. But for sure, there would be airstrikes and lots of them.

Turkey stepping in , especially with boots on the ground , has the potential to become a disaster for everyone involved . Especially considering how likely it would be for this to bring in the rest of the Balkan nations and the chances of even Russia potentially jumping in ...

 

[oberdada]

Saddam Hussein does not invade Kuwait, no US troops in Saudi-Arabia and Al-Qaeda moves support to Bosnia, considering it the mayor battleground?

 

[Cryptic]

Reach out for local friends.....

Historically, the relationship between Bosniak Slavic Muslims and the largely Muslim Albanians in Kosovo was strained going back generations. Communist Yugoslav leaders knew this and turned to Bosniak police when enthusiastic enforcement was needed in Kosovo and using local police was a non starter and using Serbs was going to get "problematic" fast.

But.... what if relations between the two Islamic ethnic groups were better? Kosovo then revolts sooner and coordinates their efforts with the Bosnian military. Serb forces get spread thinner than they already are.....

Could unrest also spread to Serbia's Vojvodina province? Say, a sanctioned, but unofficial column of Serbian ubber nationalist soccer hooligans violently disrupt a local Hungarian festival leading to street fighting and several deaths on both sides. The Hungarian population then doubles down via a general strike- and more planned festivals.

 

[Mister Mister]

I see. So a post-1900s PoD will be difficult, then. Could a pre-1900 PoD with better demographics for the Bosniaks increase their chances?

No, they had no weapons nor means for resupply.

 

[Karelian]

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati extends the support to BiH even further than OTL, and an expeditionary IRGC deploys to the country openly.
The Clinton Administration preferred Iranian assistance for Bosniaks to Greater Serbia in OTL, and would not interfere.
European countries will make meek angry noises and leave it at that, just as OTL.

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

The Clinton Administration preferred Iranian assistance for Bosniaks to Greater Serbia in OTL, and would not interfere.

I had to look that up to see if it was real and I'm shocked that happened. But it brings up questions like why did Clinton not directly interfere on the Bosniaks' side.

 

[Karl der Große]

Simply stated it cannot happen without a POD prior to the 1930s. A stable, "normal" Bosnia will result in a more stable Balkans. Neither of those things is in anyone's interest but the common people living there, which hold no influence. Main thing is NATO can't let it happen, so NATO won't let it happen. There's a reason Bosniaks were supported (to screw Greater Serbia enthusiasts) then suddenly told they would be bombed if they continued to advance into RS (to screw Bosnia in general).

 

[Karelian]

I had to look that up to see if it was real and I'm shocked that happened. But it brings up questions like why did Clinton not directly interfere on the Bosniaks' side.

Because the Clinton Administration was really reluctant to get militarily involved overseas.
Memories from Vietnam were still fresh enough, and the military itself was vocal in the desire to solely focus on waging only "real", conventional wars with clearly defined end goals. It is hard, but critically important to remember that the world of pre-9/11, the public opinion in the US was still really casualty-averse.

The events of Mogadishu would have been another bad Thursday a decade and a half later, but in the 1990s they made the headlines and influenced US foreign policy.

 

[Changundramon]

Whatever power wants to directly help Bosnia, there is only the port of Neum to do it through. Croatian ethnic population, and the rest of the coast closest to Bosnia is Croatian territory.

So, the assent of the official Zagreb is a precondition to any Muslim country deploying troops. Might happen, as Iranian weapons shipments historically went through Croatia to Bosnia.

If Izetbegović was less naive about Serbian intentions in 1991, he could have armed his people better and made some preparations.

 

[raharris1973]

Saddam Hussein does not invade Kuwait, no US troops in Saudi-Arabia and Al-Qaeda moves support to Bosnia, considering it the mayor battleground?

I can imagine Al-Qaeda getting involved (or more involved) in the Bosnia fighting. It may have actually done some sponsoring of Sunni Islamic fighter training, transport, recruitment, and armament in OTL. In the OTL Bosnia War, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt all had covert aid programs for Bosnia, covered in the NY Times at the time, and Sunni "mujhadeen" from Arab countries were involved in addition to Shia fighters backed by Iran's IRGC.

But you're not suggesting that Al-Qaeda somehow provides the Bosniaks, with some war-winning field force, are you?

Turkey steps in.

Turkey stepping in , especially with boots on the ground , has the potential to become a disaster for everyone involved .

Turkey would be a problematic major intervener for historic reasons, just like Germany or Italy. That's why the Anglo-American-French combo were essential to weigh in on any bulky PKO force.

Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati extends the support to BiH even further than OTL, and an expeditionary IRGC deploys to the country openly.

They did get in there in OTL, and the news got out, in western media. But Iran lacked the logistics and power projection to deployed with weight and firepower to make a true win.

 

[Karelian]

They did get in there in OTL, and the news got out, in western media. But Iran lacked the logistics and power projection to deployed with weight and firepower to make a true win.

The OP asked for at least somewhat credible way to make the Bosniaks prevail, and Iran is the only power with the potential willingness and resources to make a difference.
The OTL Iranian intervention was still more of a PR stunt than a fully dedicated effort, and for a good reason. I agree with the fact that logistics would be an issue.
But provided that the US keeps the Croats from shutting down the Bosnian coastal supply route, Iran still has capacities to supply Bosniaks much more than OTL - they managed to provide aid to the Houthis with sea transport, after all.