How much of China would the PRC need to eventually get their UN seat?

[DominusNovus]

With the entire Chinese mainland under their control, it took the PRC 22 years to be accepted as China, for the purposes of the UN and the permanent seat for China on the UNSC.

So, if the PRC didn’t control all of the mainland, what would happen? Imagine, for example, that they were able to secure Manchuria and maybe even North China, but the Nationalists still hold onto South China (one of the most common divisions in Chinese history). Would the the Republic of China retain their seat? Almost certainly. But there is almost certainly some point where the PRC controls just enough and is just useful enough as a counter against the Soviets that the West would recognize them as the legitimate government of China.

Assuming that point is not the historical status quo, what is it?

 

[Asp]

With the entire Chinese mainland under their control, it took the PRC 22 years to be accepted as China, for the purposes of the UN and the permanent seat for China on the UNSC.

So, if the PRC didn’t control all of the mainland, what would happen? Imagine, for example, that they were able to secure Manchuria and maybe even North China, but the Nationalists still hold onto South China (one of the most common divisions in Chinese history). Would the the Republic of China retain their seat? Almost certainly. But there is almost certainly some point where the PRC controls just enough and is just useful enough as a counter against the Soviets that the West would recognize them as the legitimate government of China.

Assuming that point is not the historical status quo, what is it?

If they control just Manchuria, or even all of northern China, there is zero chance of them being recognized as the legitimate Chinese state. The vast, vast majority of China's population lives in the southern and central areas. Here's a map for reference:

Quite honestly? If the ROC still controls a significant part of the mainland, I don't see the U.S. or the majority of the west recognizing them as the Chinese government. They resisted doing so for a generation IOTL despite the fact that it controlled the whole mainland and had nuclear weapons. It just isn't plausible that a frontline government with the most valuable and populous part of China would be kicked out into the cold. The other reason is that doing such a thing could very possibly lead to war with Soviet support or even outright involvement. That wasn't an issue with Taiwan because the PRC had zero ability to actually threaten Taiwan (even today, they're some years away from being able to mount a credible invasion threat). If ATL Nationalist China has been de-recognized, nobody can protest the PRC/USSR trying to annex it whole. Even if that didn't happen, it would be an extremely destabilizing act and a huge betrayal of an ally. So I'm going to say recognition of the PRC as China isn't happening without them at least ruling the mainland.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

The PRC would, at minimum, have to have control of land past the southern bank of the Yangtze River. Realistically, I would say that they could only get away with losing Hainan and maybe Guangzhou (if they're luckier than OTL).

 

[Thisisnotausername]

I think the idea that the West must recognize only one of the PRC or the ROC is a false dichotomy: if both Germanies, both Yemens, and both Koreas could be part of the UN IOTL, I see no reason why both Chinas couldn't be as well, and it's not that hard to imagine a scenario where, say, the PRC has enough clout to get itself recognized as the rightful holder of China's permanent UNSC seat but not enough to get the ROC kicked out of the UN--or vice versa. This raises a question: are you asking how much of China the PRC would need to control to get the UNSC seat, to get the UNSC seat and get the ROC kicked out, or just get into the UN at all? Because those are three different questions with three different answers.

 

[DominusNovus]

I think the idea that the West must recognize only one of the PRC or the ROC is a false dichotomy: if both Germanies, both Yemens, and both Koreas could be part of the UN IOTL, I see no reason why both Chinas couldn't be as well, and it's not that hard to imagine a scenario where, say, the PRC has enough clout to get itself recognized as the rightful holder of China's permanent UNSC seat but not enough to get the ROC kicked out of the UN--or vice versa. This raises a question: are you asking how much of China the PRC would need to control to get the UNSC seat, to get the UNSC seat and get the ROC kicked out, or just get into the UN at all? Because those are three different questions with three different answers.

The UNSC seat.

 

[Alanith]

If the PRC controls only Manchuria? Or the north? They are never getting recognition by the west as the “legitimate” government. They may get recognized as “a” legitimate government and a normal UN seat but they will never get a permanent SC seat or the Veto.