Germany wins World War I, and the Whites win the Russian Civil War?

[sparkman]

What if Germany won World War I in 1917-1918 and the White Army subsequently won the Russian Civil War against the Bolsheviks?

Of course the Whites would have been extremely unhappy at the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, but having just come out of a devastating Civil War to defeat the Bolsheviks, I highly doubt that many of them would have stomached the prospect of a renewed war against a victorious Germany. The Eleven Days' War had already shown that resistance against Germany's demands were futile.

 

[ahmedali]

In fact, I doubt that people will win

The Germans, if they win, will be tired

But there are two ways, but one of them may not meet your question

The first made Fanny's attempt to kill Lenin successful, and thus made the Bolsheviks even more divided

The second is Grand Duke Michael who takes the throne from Nicholas II and makes a separate peace

Kaiser Wilhelm II does not want to spoil his cousin's chances, and the new Kaiser only takes Poland

But this prevents Brest-Litovsk and the Russian Civil War

 

[sparkman]

In fact, I doubt that people will win

The Germans, if they win, will be tired

But there are two ways, but one of them may not meet your question

The first made Fanny's attempt to kill Lenin successful, and thus made the Bolsheviks even more divided

The second is Grand Duke Michael who takes the throne from Nicholas II and makes a separate peace

Kaiser Wilhelm II does not want to spoil his cousin's chances, and the new Kaiser only takes Poland

But this prevents Brest-Litovsk and the Russian Civil War

It's hardly inconceivable that the Whites could have won after Brest-Litovsk and the outbreak of the Civil War, especially if you kill off the unifying figure of Lenin.

 

[Lalli]

German victory not yet guarantee White victory. And even if Whites win, there will be yet power struggle between different factions. Whites weren't unified group but there was just several factions who were united by opposing of Bolsheviks.

 

[ahmedali]

It's hardly inconceivable that the Whites could have won after Brest-Litovsk and the outbreak of the Civil War, especially if you kill off the unifying figure of Lenin.

They will win, but Russia will become a warlord like China

The best scenario is the second scenario of Tsar Michael II

 

[sparkman]

They will win, but Russia will become a warlord like China

Depends on which White faction wins.

The best scenario is the second scenario of Tsar Michael II

Michael still has to figure out how to leave the war.

 

[ahmedali]

Depends on which White faction wins.

Michael still has to figure out how to leave the war.

People want the new tsar to leave the war

So Michael II must send a message to the German government through a neutral intermediary declaring his intention of a separate peace with them

Wilhelm II, Heddenburg and Ludendorff agree

But Wilhelm II tries to make the conditions more desirable for the Russians, with the support of Alfred von Tribetz, Admiral of the Sea Fleet.

So the German Empire offered Michael to take Poland, Bessarabia and parts of the Caucasus only

With the signing of agreements with the Russians on the export of Russian food products to the Central Powers

This deal will not make russian refuse

 

[sparkman]

People want the new tsar to leave the war

So Michael II must send a message to the German government through a neutral intermediary declaring his intention of a separate peace with them

Wilhelm II, Heddenburg and Ludendorff agree

But Wilhelm II tries to make the conditions more desirable for the Russians, with the support of Alfred von Tribetz, Admiral of the Sea Fleet.

So the German Empire offered Michael to take Poland, Bessarabia and parts of the Caucasus only

With the signing of agreements with the Russians on the export of Russian food products to the Central Powers

That and the Baltics.

 

[Catsmate]

It's hardly inconceivable that the Whites could have won after Brest-Litovsk and the outbreak of the Civil War, especially if you kill off the unifying figure of Lenin.

It's unlikely in the extreme. Germany will not be interested in large-scale intervention, the Entente and their allies have other things concerning them and the Whites are a faction-0riddled, incompetent, mess. Even without Lenin the Reds have better leadership, greater unit, more industrial resources and generally superior competence.

 

[Catsmate]

Depends on which White faction wins.

Michael still has to figure out how to leave the war.

None of the White factions individually have the strength to win. Many factions are uninterested in, or opposed to, the recreation of the Tsarist system

People want the new tsar to leave the war

So Michael II must send a message to the German government through a neutral intermediary declaring his intention of a separate peace with them

Wilhelm II, Heddenburg and Ludendorff agree

But Wilhelm II tries to make the conditions more desirable for the Russians, with the support of Alfred von Tribetz, Admiral of the Sea Fleet.

So the German Empire offered Michael to take Poland, Bessarabia and parts of the Caucasus only

With the signing of agreements with the Russians on the export of Russian food products to the Central Powers

This deal will not make russian refuse

No.

 

[sparkman]

It's unlikely in the extreme. Germany will not be interested in large-scale intervention, the Entente and their allies have other things concerning them and the Whites are a faction-0riddled, incompetent, mess. Even without Lenin the Reds have better leadership, greater unit, more industrial resources and generally superior competence.

Yudenich cutting the Petrograd-Moscow railway would have cut the two Bolshevik power bases from each other, meaning that Denikin's Moscow Offensive would have been much more successful.

None of the White factions individually have the strength to win. Many factions are uninterested in, or opposed to, the recreation of the Tsarist system

No.

Of course the Whites can win: the Nationalists won in Spain despite the Republicans controlling Spain's key industrial bases. Regardless, the victorious Whites would not have restored Michael: Kornilov had hardly attempted his putsch to restore the Romanovs.

 

[ahmedali]

That and the Baltics.

The Baltics in 1917 were still Russian and the Germans only took Riga and a small part of Courland

A separate peace before the arrival of the Bolsheviks and the Kreisinsky offensive, the Baltics remain Russian

 

[ahmedali]

None of the White factions individually have the strength to win. Many factions are uninterested in, or opposed to, the recreation of the Tsarist system


No.

Most white leaders are royalists, so your argument is meaningless

If the Kaiser wants to preserve his throne, he will do so

(Mikhail is not Nicholas, he is aware of the reality of the terrible Russian performance, so he will be inclined to peace)

 

[sparkman]

The Baltics in 1917 were still Russian and the Germans only took Riga and a small part of Courland

A separate peace before the arrival of the Bolsheviks and the Kreisinsky offensive, the Baltics remain Russian

I do think that Michael would have accepted the original B-L terms. He is not going to be stupid enough to launch into Trotsky's 'no war, no peace' shtick.

 

[ahmedali]

Yudenich cutting the Petrograd-Moscow railway would have cut the two Bolshevik power bases from each other, meaning that Denikin's Moscow Offensive would have been much more successful.


Of course the Whites can win: the Nationalists won in Spain despite the Republicans controlling Spain's key industrial bases. Regardless, the victorious Whites would not have restored Michael: Kornilov had hardly attempted his putsch to restore the Romanovs.

So most white leaders are royalists. Victory will bring back the Romanovs, but they will choose a reactionary tsar or a puppet

 

[ahmedali]

I do think that Michael would have accepted the original B-L terms. He is not going to be stupid enough to launch into Trotsky's 'no war, no peace' shtick.

exactly

And if Wilhelm II is nice, he will bring back Korland and Lithuania

And Poland is a cafe as a buffer country for the Russians, with Bessarabia and Kars

In return for long-term contracts on the export of Russian products to Germany

win-win

 

[Catsmate]

Yudenich cutting the Petrograd-Moscow railway would have cut the two Bolshevik power bases from each other, meaning that Denikin's Moscow Offensive would have been much more successful.


Of course the Whites can win: the Nationalists won in Spain despite the Republicans controlling Spain's key industrial bases. Regardless, the victorious Whites would not have restored Michael: Kornilov had hardly attempted his putsch to restore the Romanovs.

1. Not sufficient to manage a killing blow against the Reds.
2. Bollocks. The Nationalist rebellion had vast external support, the legitimate Republican government had far less.

 

[Catsmate]

Most white leaders are royalists, so your argument is meaningless

If the Kaiser wants to preserve his throne, he will do so

(Mikhail is not Nicholas, he is aware of the reality of the terrible Russian performance, so he will be inclined to peace)

1. No. The Whites as a group had not decided to press for a new Tsar, let alone who it would be.
2. Bollocks. The Germans knew the Russians were finished and the populace wanted an end to the war.
3. So?

 

[ahmedali]

1. No. The Whites as a group had not decided to press for a new Tsar, let alone who it would be.
2. Bollocks. The Germans knew the Russians were finished and the populace wanted an end to the war.
3. So?

They didn't do it in the middle of the civil war, but they will when they win and see their rule secure (Liberals and Democrats are a minority in the whites)

That's why Michael II signs a separate peace

 

[Catsmate]

They didn't do it in the middle of the civil war, but they will when they win and see their rule secure (Liberals and Democrats are a minority in the whites)

At which point, assuming this actually happened, the Whites would descend into their one civil war.