France never falls; what do the Allies do with German science?

Given the close call nature of the Battle of France IOTL, a fairly popular topic of discussion here over the past longish while has been the outcome of a failure of Fall Rot to actually allow Germany to occupy continental France, however that offensive manages to fail. There seems to be a fair consensus that if France doesn’t fall then Germany will have a bad time, Japan may not ever attack the United States and will simply keep grinding itself to death in China, and generally World War II will look a lot less like World War II, though there’s still plenty of discussion on all these topics.

But I’m not asking about any of that. Just suppose that Fall Rot does fail, France doesn’t fall, and Germany gets ground down under superior Allied economics over the next few years. Obviously, there’s going to be at least some period of occupation following the war, and obviously the Allies are going to want to extract technical and economic value from Germany. All of the pre-war influences that caused them to believe that German science and technology was sophisticated, advanced, and worth learning about still exist, even if Germany probably doesn’t end up producing many of the technologies that became famous during the war, like jet aircraft or ballistic missiles. Additionally, the economic and political factors that further spurred on Allied efforts to learn from German technologies, like British war debts leading to a desire to make their industry more productive and competitive, or French desires to develop their scientific capability as a form of global soft power, would also seem to still exist and be important, if perhaps not as much as IOTL.

Now, IOTL the British and French both made significant efforts to extract scientific and technical knowledge and information from Germany, but had quite different approaches to the subject. The British followed the approach of the United States and sent agents to copy scientific and technical information from Germany industry and, to some extent, the German military, as well as traveling to German industrial centers to produce reports on how they did things and bringing over German scientists and engineers to set up labs and research institutes in Britain. This turned out not to work very well, largely because of “tacit knowledge,” that is the kind of skills or expertise that people develop by doing things and either don’t think to record or which are difficult to record and communicate through writing or similar forms of communication. Later on, the British therefore switched to sending out experts to German industrial centers to learn how to do things, then come back to their normal place of employment to help introduce new techniques and capabilities. This seems to have worked better, but overall this approach of trying to simply import German know-how appears to have worked poorly when employed by not just Britain, but also the United States and Soviet Union when they employed similar programs.

The French, by contrast, had a notion—well accepted now in the sociology of science—that science is, so to speak, embedded in a cultural matrix that cannot simply be lifted up and moved to another country the way you might move a building. Combined with their comparatively limited resources, they came up with the idea of inserting French scientists into German research institutes, both preexisting and newly founded, to both learn from the Germans and provide intelligence on what decisions the Germans were making so that the occupation authorities could control their activities. While in the short-run this wasn’t very successful (the French decided to insert graduate students and postdocs, in modern terms, who both lacked authority and were clearly outsiders and therefore left out of decision-making), in the long-run this seems to have been very successful in building up connections between the German and French scientific communities on both personal and formal levels, forming a portion of the post-war cooperation to led to the European Union.

Now, if France never falls then France is clearly going to have a much louder voice in the post-war occupation, especially if the Soviet Union and the United States never become involved. While this means that they won’t face some of the same resource limitations that they did IOTL, the beliefs that led them to the approach they adopted IOTL will still be there, and therefore I suspect that they will take a substantially similar approach, but on a larger scale. Additionally, their desire to keep Germany down, so to speak, will be more influential, which again tends to point to the expansion of this scheme to a larger scale, by inserting students into most of the Max-Planck institutes, for example.

More interestingly, and (finally!) getting to the point of this post, I was wondering whether the louder French voice in planning sessions might lead to Britain adopting some of the same methods. IOTL, the French indifference to British and American efforts tended to be interpreted as underhanded maliciousness, but part of the reason for this was the Anglo-American “special relationship,” which ITTL would be less relevant (again, assuming that the United States isn’t involved in the occupation). Without this, I was wondering if the British might listen more to the French, particularly their less than enthusiastic response to the Anglo-American approach, and participate to at least some degree in the French student training program. It seems to me that this might lead down the road to a certain degree of greater cooperation between Britain and the Continent, obviously in terms of science and technology but perhaps in other areas? Could you, perhaps, see a highly integrated system of scientific education and research across Britain, France, and Germany, perhaps also including the Low Countries, Czechoslovakia, and maybe Poland, long before any idea of the Bologna Process was developed IOTL?

(The vast majority of the information on OTL used in this post came from Douglas O’Reagan, both in the form of a lecture I recently attended and, as a more detailed reference, his Ph.D. dissertation, which covers most of the same ground. If this topic sounds interesting, I recommend reading the latter, which seems based on my skimming to be quite reasonably readable, or the book he's recently had published)
 
Well, this looks like a very interesting thread. Unfortunately I know little on the subject.

A scenario where France doesn't fall very likely means that the US is never directly involved in the war in Europe and it's quite likely that the USSR isn't either (they might try to take the rest of Poland and maybe even Czechoslovakia but that's unlikely given that the Eastern European and Balkanic powers would oppose this), so the entire Operation Paperclip likely never happens, and it's possible that German scientists who lived abroad return (the Manhattan project might not have happened either).
Another factor is that the USSR wouldn't be regarded as so dangerous and European power would balance the Soviet one far more easily than OTL to the point where the Cold War might not even be a real thing and the West might not be very interested in keeping truly large forces to deter the Soviets (indeed Eastern Europe might be able to do fine for now if propped up by richer powers). This means that there would potentially be a greater focus on "civilian" technology and science in the West, and the Germans could help there.

Based on this and the fact that Germany would probably have faced lesser destruction than OTL, this would drastically increase the pool of scientists who could work with the French and the British. Moreoever as the British would have fought alongside the French instead of mostly the Americans OTL (in Europe, not in Asia if things go south) and would have a lower debt to the US, so they would definitely work closer with the French whom they also have more respect for (since no armistice and debacle), so I could see them adopting the French method.

There's also the last aspect that as France was never defeated, it wouldn't have had a technological gap with other powers by war's end. Indeed they have slowly but surely modernized the war industry (especially the aircraft one, although by 1940 there were still serious defects so by 1942 when the war would end at the latest the French might just have finished modernizing) and the promising French projects would have come to fruition. In this timeline German equipment might not have seemed all that much more advanced than the Allied one (although both the French and British could learn something).

All in all though I could definitely see the system you've talked about come to light as Western Europe would both be in a better economic situation to modernize and unlike in OTL there would be more opportunities to work with German scientists as the Cold War superpowers wouldn't have grabbed most of them.
 

Deleted member 1487

Case Red is WAY too late to stop the Germans, they'd have to be checked during Case Yellow, which likely means a shorter war...and of course the problem of Stalin jumping in to get his cut of the spoils, as well as Franco-British issues with that. Plus the British were pushing for the bombing of Baku once the Allies had checked the German invasion of western Europe, which could make things very much more troublesome all around. I actually don't see the Allies as really being able to occupy Germany without the US either, especially after another long, grinding war that leaves them bankrupt with Stalin waiting in the wings to see if Europe is weak enough for him to sweep. The French are going to suffer the most of the Allies as they did in WW1 when they didn't fall, so I don't see them having the strength to demand anything, while the Brits weren't really interested in making their industry more competitive by learning from the German IOTL. If anything they were more interested in dismantling German science and having their specialists come to Britain, that is the ones they could get their hands on. Its an interesting idea, but one that unfortunately is prevented by the practical realities of any sort of Allied victory. At best the Allies defeat the German invasion so badly that the German military uses it as justification to coup Hitler and the Nazis to get a peace deal to avoid a long war, but then the French and British combined didn't really have the strength to occupy Germany as would be necessary or like OTL with the US and USSR involved. Germany had to be decisively beaten for that and required a massive investment in occupation forces to make it possible, which the Allies couldn't even muster after WW1. By WW2 they had the problem of the 'hollow generations' on top of their already depleted finances.

Especially if the USSR hasn't gotten involved the Franco-Brits would probably need to cut a deal with a post-Hitler government in Germany as a buffer against an arming USSR rather than being able to get an OTL occupation situation (or being able to actually sustain one). So it is hard to get a situation like what you are suggesting and in fact the interesting part is probably the course of the war and post-war overall situation.

BTW thanks for the link, that seems like interesting reading.
 
There's also the last aspect that as France was never defeated, it wouldn't have had a technological gap with other powers by war's end. Indeed they have slowly but surely modernized the war industry (especially the aircraft one, although by 1940 there were still serious defects so by 1942 when the war would end at the latest the French might just have finished modernizing) and the promising French projects would have come to fruition. In this timeline German equipment might not have seemed all that much more advanced than the Allied one (although both the French and British could learn something).
As I said, while the in-war technologies that impressed people then and continue to impress people today probably wouldn't be deployed, there was plenty of reason for the Allies to believe in the general superiority of German science and technology to their own, regardless of the truth of that belief (it wasn't true OTL, after all, but they still believed it). There was plenty of pre-war evidence (in terms of things like Nobel Prizes, patents, the competitiveness of German exports, and so on) that the Germans had a highly sophisticated and advanced technology base--which was true, of course, but the Allies also had a highly sophisticated and advanced technology base, so they didn't find as much as they expected that was better than what they had.

Case Red is WAY too late to stop the Germans, they'd have to be checked during Case Yellow, which likely means a shorter war...
Yes, sorry, my mistake. I was quickly skimming information on the Battle of France and mistook Fall Rot for Fall Gelb.

while the Brits weren't really interested in making their industry more competitive by learning from the German IOTL. If anything they were more interested in dismantling German science and having their specialists come to Britain, that is the ones they could get their hands on.
You should read the dissertation I linked or the related book. At the talk I attended he presented primary evidence that the British were in fact keenly interested in improving the competitiveness of their industries, and part of that was bringing German scientists into the UK to do their research there for British concerns instead of in Germany for German firms.

At best the Allies defeat the German invasion so badly that the German military uses it as justification to coup Hitler and the Nazis to get a peace deal to avoid a long war, but then the French and British combined didn't really have the strength to occupy Germany as would be necessary or like OTL with the US and USSR involved. Germany had to be decisively beaten for that and required a massive investment in occupation forces to make it possible, which the Allies couldn't even muster after WW1.
I wouldn't be so sure on this point. Given the situation of having to fight Germany twice in twenty years, I suspect that the French and British will be really interested in keeping Germany down and really unwilling to simply accept a surrender after a military coup. It would have the stink of just getting back to the same point they were at twenty years earlier, and then what happens in the 1960s? Yes, the Soviets are a problem, but a hypothetical one--the Germans have proven completely impossible. This tends to suggest to me that the French and British will do whatever they can to push the Germans down, and so will be even more interested in getting whatever they can out of Germany, if for no other reason than to help pay for their occupation force. And if they end up not being able to do that after all, then the French approach of binding Germany into institutions that make it impossible for them to rise up starts to look like a big winner.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
A scenario where France doesn't fall very likely means that the US is never directly involved in the war in Europe and it's quite likely that the USSR isn't either (they might try to take the rest of Poland and maybe even Czechoslovakia but that's unlikely given that the Eastern European and Balkanic powers would oppose this), so the entire Operation Paperclip likely never happens, and it's possible that German scientists who lived abroad return (the Manhattan project might not have happened either).
There are no Eastern European powers. Poland and Czechoslovakia are gone, Romania would get beaten to a pulp by the USSR in a 1v1, Hungary and Bulgaria will help the USSR against Romania if it dares to pick a fight with the USSR, and Yugoslavia needs to handle its internal issues.
 

Deleted member 1487

As I said, while the in-war technologies that impressed people then and continue to impress people today probably wouldn't be deployed, there was plenty of reason for the Allies to believe in the general superiority of German science and technology to their own, regardless of the truth of that belief (it wasn't true OTL, after all, but they still believed it). There was plenty of pre-war evidence (in terms of things like Nobel Prizes, patents, the competitiveness of German exports, and so on) that the Germans had a highly sophisticated and advanced technology base--which was true, of course, but the Allies also had a highly sophisticated and advanced technology base, so they didn't find as much as they expected that was better than what they had.
I'd argue that the 1940-42 French and British could learn a lot more from Germany than they could in 1945; the French after all didn't even have production radar yet as of 1940 and the British systems were behind Germany until the US was able to help them turn the cavity magnetron into something mass produceable. It really seems like US investments in the Allies really is what pushed them ahead and without that boost (and the boost the US got by joining in the war and and spending vast sums on research, while organizing science for huge, rapid advancement that continued into the post-war period to some degree) German science as of the 1940-42 was probably in a position to teach other European nations quite a lot assuming they could get unfettered access. The French relatively were in the worst position for a variety of reasons and had the most to learn even before occupation.

Yes, sorry, my mistake. I was quickly skimming information on the Battle of France and mistook Fall Rot for Fall Gelb.
No worries. It just changed a lot if you did mean Red.

You should read the dissertation I linked or the related book. At the talk I attended he presented primary evidence that the British were in fact keenly interested in improving the competitiveness of their industries, and part of that was bringing German scientists into the UK to do their research there for British concerns instead of in Germany for German firms.
I'm actually reading it now and was check in during a break from reading. Given that the British did little to improve their private industry after WW2 and fell behind (not to mention the fact that they were offered Volkswagen for purchase and declined, saying there was nothing German automotive industry could teach Britain, only for VW to become the current largest auto producer in the world says something), I'm not sure they were all that committed. Since they had the experience of slotting in German exiles into their research programs during the war, they probably felt that given the situation of German science at the end of the war IOTL and their interest in hobbling German research it made a lot more sense to move scientists to Britain than try and move their people to devastated Germany. I see no reason for them to change ITTL. France IOTL had more incentives to work in Germany given their own domestic situation after WW2 as a result of WW2.

I wouldn't be so sure on this point. Given the situation of having to fight Germany twice in twenty years, I suspect that the French and British will be really interested in keeping Germany down and really unwilling to simply accept a surrender after a military coup. It would have the stink of just getting back to the same point they were at twenty years earlier, and then what happens in the 1960s? Yes, the Soviets are a problem, but a hypothetical one--the Germans have proven completely impossible. This tends to suggest to me that the French and British will do whatever they can to push the Germans down, and so will be even more interested in getting whatever they can out of Germany, if for no other reason than to help pay for their occupation force. And if they end up not being able to do that after all, then the French approach of binding Germany into institutions that make it impossible for them to rise up starts to look like a big winner.
Interested in and having the ability to are vastly different things. They weren't able to after WW1 even with the Americans, after WW2 with even more bleeding and need to contain the USSR they had even less ability to do so sans vast US help. Also given Churchill's position about the Nazis being different than Germans or the German military, I see him being very pragmatic in accepting a non-Nazi military coupist regime if that means avoiding total economic ruin and potential Soviet domination of Europe in the aftermath of the war. Churchill was willing IOTL as of 1940 to effectively sell off the empire to get US help to avoid defeat. You also have to understand that IOTL even on the eve of the German attack on France both the French and British were just as interested in fighting Stalin and containing him as of beating Hitler, so they have a very real fear of Soviet expansion (Churchill of course warned FDR against this during the 1945 conferences and wanted to rehabilitate Germany as a bulwark against Soviet expansion and vehemently opposed Morgenthau's plan to deindustrialize Germany). The pre-US Allies were anti-Nazi, anti-Hitler not anti-Germany, as well as very anti-Stalin. Part of the reason the Brits tried so hard to build up Germany in the 1930s and work with Hitler was to contain Stalin and that likely would be their goal if France never falls, especially as they really didn't have the strength to beat Germany totally and then occupy it as well as contain Germany.
 
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