WI the spark which started WWI had been produced at a different place than OTL? Considering the options, there were plenty of potential conflicts involving the Great Powers, hence the Balkan powder wasn´t predestinated to ignite the Great War.
I´ve read some threads regarding different causes for WWI, where the members suggest several possibilities such as colonial clashes in Africa or Far East, etc. , but I want to consider the option of the outbreak taking place in Ottoman Armenia.
IOTL Eastern Anatolia remained a secondary issue for Russian diplomacy, although several attempts were made for penetration in the area, always checked by the rival powers, mainly Britain. But the growing influence of German Empire in Ottoman affairs, with the building of the Baghdad Railways alarmed the British up to the point to force the rapprochement with their former Russian opponents. This convergence of interests made possible the formulation of the Armenian Reform package, just prior the outbreak of WWI.
Consequently, WI an Armenian insurrection breaks out around the time of the implementation of the Reform Package, i.e. 1914 (assuming that there is no Assassination in Sarajevo)? IMO the subsequent succession of events would be:
1. The Ottomans ( who have recently lost Balkan Wars and have been compelled to shelter many Muslim refugees in their territory), move their army to crush the rebellion, fearing another episode of territorial dismemberment, now at the hands of Russia.
2. Before this move, the Sultan consults the German Kaiser, requesting guarantees from German Empire in case of War with “another Power”.
3. Mad Willy, viewing the chance of putting the Anglo Russian Entente to the test and even destroying it, gives a blank cheque to his Turkish ally.
4. Russia begins to mobilize her troops in Caucasus, the same goes for Germany…….
I´ve read some threads regarding different causes for WWI, where the members suggest several possibilities such as colonial clashes in Africa or Far East, etc. , but I want to consider the option of the outbreak taking place in Ottoman Armenia.
IOTL Eastern Anatolia remained a secondary issue for Russian diplomacy, although several attempts were made for penetration in the area, always checked by the rival powers, mainly Britain. But the growing influence of German Empire in Ottoman affairs, with the building of the Baghdad Railways alarmed the British up to the point to force the rapprochement with their former Russian opponents. This convergence of interests made possible the formulation of the Armenian Reform package, just prior the outbreak of WWI.
Consequently, WI an Armenian insurrection breaks out around the time of the implementation of the Reform Package, i.e. 1914 (assuming that there is no Assassination in Sarajevo)? IMO the subsequent succession of events would be:
1. The Ottomans ( who have recently lost Balkan Wars and have been compelled to shelter many Muslim refugees in their territory), move their army to crush the rebellion, fearing another episode of territorial dismemberment, now at the hands of Russia.
2. Before this move, the Sultan consults the German Kaiser, requesting guarantees from German Empire in case of War with “another Power”.
3. Mad Willy, viewing the chance of putting the Anglo Russian Entente to the test and even destroying it, gives a blank cheque to his Turkish ally.
4. Russia begins to mobilize her troops in Caucasus, the same goes for Germany…….
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