Economic effects of less Spanish colonization of the Americas?

[GameBawesome]

The Spanish colonization of the Americas, including the conquests of the Inca, Aztecs and other natives brought great wealth and power to the Spanish Empire. However, that wealth was also a disadvantage, as all that silver caused economic inflation in the Spanish Empire.

So what if, Spanish Colonization and conquest was limited? What if the Spanish failed to conquer those native empire, like the Aztec and Inca?

So 2 changes:

1. There is still Spanish colonization, but only to the Caribbean, New Grenada, Rio de la Plata, Northern, Florida, and coastal Mexico, Florida, and Panama.

2. Failed conquests of the Inca and Aztecs. Aztecs collapse in various states before unifying under another power, but Inca remain intact and survive.

With all these points set, how would Less Spanish colonization and conquest effect world history?

Would the Spanish be able to trade with some of these surviving native states?

Could any other nation trade with these native nations, for awhile?

How would this effect Spanish wars in the Low Countries, in Italy, with the Ottomans?

How would this effect the Colombian exchange? Would this encourage trade between natives and European merchants?

How would this effect Asian economics, with Indian-states and Ming China?

 

[GameBawesome]

So, without the wealth of the New World, how would Spain fare in Wars in Europe?

 

[Gabingston]

I think Spain colonized the Rio De La Plata from Peru and Paraguay, so without the conquest of Peru it's possible that Spain never colonizes La Plata.

 

[pompejus]

How would this effect Spanish wars in the Low Countries, in Italy, with the Ottomans?

Assuming everything in Europe is going the same, they would go significantly worse. Simply put, without the silver Spain would have less silver/money to invest in their army and navy. So either the army and navy will be smaller, since less weapons, ships, supplies, wages, etc can be bought or the money runs out sooner.

 

[BELFAST]

Assuming everything in Europe is going the same, they would go significantly worse. Simply put, without the silver Spain would have less silver/money to invest in their army and navy. So either the army and navy will be smaller, since less weapons, ships, supplies, wages, etc can be bought or the money runs out sooner.

Would that be bad?

 

[pompejus]

Would that be bad?

It depends how you look at it (assuming you mean for Spain, for the countries they were fighting it would obviously be good). For example, what did Spain get out of the Southern Netherlands after the 80-year war (or even during)? If Spain is significantly less succesful in the Netherlands than it was OTL, it could mean that Flanders and Antwerp end up Dutch and Wallonia ends up French, meaning that Spain loses all, or at least the most lucrative parts of the Netherlands. This might make Spain less wealthyin the long run, since it can't use the resources of the Southern Netherlands. Something similar is true for all the wars Spain fought. Also since I suspect that Spain will still poor a significant amount of resources into those wars, even without American silver, it can still be pretty ruinous for the Spanish economy. I suspect that Spain will still go bankrupt like OTL. Only now it get less in return for it.

If Spain though wisens up and decides to be less agressive and fight less wars than OTL. In that case it might be beneficial for Spain. The long term loss might weight up against everything Spain lost fighting the wars. It would most certainly change European history a lot, though.It probably would be a boon for the protestants, though. A larger Netherlands, less devistating thirty year war, with a better chance for the protestant, etc.

 

[BELFAST]

It depends how you look at it (assuming you mean for Spain, for the countries they were fighting it would obviously be good). For example, what did Spain get out of the Southern Netherlands after the 80-year war (or even during)? If Spain is significantly less succesful in the Netherlands than it was OTL, it could mean that Flanders and Antwerp end up Dutch and Wallonia ends up French, meaning that Spain loses all, or at least the most lucrative parts of the Netherlands. This might make Spain less wealthyin the long run, since it can't use the resources of the Southern Netherlands. Something similar is true for all the wars Spain fought. Also since I suspect that Spain will still poor a significant amount of resources into those wars, even without American silver, it can still be pretty ruinous for the Spanish economy. I suspect that Spain will still go bankrupt like OTL. Only now it get less in return for it.

If Spain though wisens up and decides to be less agressive and fight less wars than OTL. In that case it might be beneficial for Spain. The long term loss might weight up against everything Spain lost fighting the wars. It would most certainly change European history a lot, though.It probably would be a boon for the protestants, though. A larger Netherlands, less devistating thirty year war, with a better chance for the protestant, etc.

That does sound better.
Less war and more trade does sound like it would be an improvement.
I wonder if Spain does not get the silver in South America who does and what do they do with it.

 

[BELFAST]

If Spain does not get south America then Portugal might get the Inca silver instead.

 

[frustrated progressive]

Perhaps avoiding the imperial overextension and inflation enabled by New World silver would actually be good for Spanish prospects in the long-term?

 

[pompejus]

That does sound better.
Less war and more trade does sound like it would be an improvement.
I wonder if Spain does not get the silver in South America who does and what do they do with it.

It realy depends on if Spain still goes to war now it has less money or if it does not.

 

[Deleted member 160141]

So what if Spanish Colonization and conquest was limited? What if the Spanish failed to conquer those native empire, like the Aztec and Inca?
So 2 changes:
1. There is still Spanish colonization, but only to the Caribbean, New Grenada, Rio de la Plata, Northern, Florida, and coastal Mexico, Florida, and Panama.
2. Failed conquests of the Inca and Aztecs. Aztecs collapse in various states before unifying under another power, but Inca remain intact and survive.

This can be made easy (and the effects more interesting) if there is a strong state in Morocco to threaten the Spanish.

One of the main problems after the Reconquista was that they now had tens of thousands of idle men who only knew how to fight and many of whom had rather large debts to certain Italian banking houses. Thus, when the New World came into view, the Castilians actively marketed it as a place for that sort of person to want to go to; potential for striking it rich, getting to fight/loot/rape all day long, and no pesky Italians to worry about either.
If, however, they still had a big enemy, perhaps even one which had to be destroyed for Spain to be secure, they would simply have them continue the Reconquista across the Straits. This would drastically reduce the number of greedy, adventurous men like Cortez and Pizarro going to Hispaniola, which would mean that the local government would probably continue its pre-Cortez policy, which was to do anything except get into a war with mainland empires of unknown strength.

IOTL, the governor sent men after Cortez with orders to arrest him, but they deserted after Cortez put dollar signs in their eyes.​

If Cortez's expedition hadn't gone so well, the colony would have suffered a massive manpower blow and would've had no desire to send a second expedition and provoke a response of some kind.​

Spoiler: Spoiler

This would lend itself to a more plantation-based colonial scheme in the Americas, and a more cautious and diplomatic foreign policy.
Eventually, the various diseases hit America and there will be tumult for a while. However, with Spain busy elsewhere and the colonies strapped for men themselves, the Spanish won't be able to exploit this opening in Mexico. With Mexico going unconquered, Pizarro's expedition is impossible, so the Inca survive too.

In the meantime, the Aztecs have a 50/50 chance of imploding or surviving. If they implode, either some other city-state in the Valley of Mexico or one of the peripheral kingdoms like the Mixtecs or Zapotecs rises up to take their place. If they don't, they probably soon gain horses and start expanding into the ranching country of northern Mexico. The Inca resolve their civil war and start expanding again, this time into Colombia and northern Argentina. At some point, some European power (likely Portuguese or Dutch) probably sets up shop in whatever town the Incas have built on the mouth of the Rio de la Plata, Madras/Bombay-style.

The Spanish colonial economy would be based less on ranching and mining, and more on plantations and local trade. This would drastically limit the amount of money available for the Crown to play with, which forces it to adopt a more sensible financial policy. Without so much silver flowing in from the Americas, inflation in Spain never grows as out of hand as it did IOTL. This would allow for the formation of a middle class something like that in France.

Also, the presence of the aforementioned Morocco turns Spain's attention to the Med. With the conquest of North Africa and their existing holdings in Italy, the Spanish could seriously harbor pretensions toward being the new Roman Empire.

 

[BELFAST]

Without the Spanish treasure fleets to loot the British would have a lot less money too.
The British with a lot less sliver have trouble importing tea from China
So early opium war?
Plus how much longer will it take the European to discover the potato?
With delayed introduction of the potato, how does this affect the population growth in europe?

 

[twovultures]

The Spanish colonization of the Americas, including the conquests of the Inca, Aztecs and other natives brought great wealth and power to the Spanish Empire. However, that wealth was also a disadvantage, as all that silver caused economic inflation in the Spanish Empire.

So what if, Spanish Colonization and conquest was limited? What if the Spanish failed to conquer those native empire, like the Aztec and Inca?

So 2 changes:

1. There is still Spanish colonization, but only to the Caribbean, New Grenada, Rio de la Plata, Northern, Florida, and coastal Mexico, Florida, and Panama.

2. Failed conquests of the Inca and Aztecs. Aztecs collapse in various states before unifying under another power, but Inca remain intact and survive.

With all these points set, how would Less Spanish colonization and conquest effect world history?

Would the Spanish be able to trade with some of these surviving native states?

Could any other nation trade with these native nations, for awhile?

How would this effect Spanish wars in the Low Countries, in Italy, with the Ottomans?

How would this effect the Colombian exchange? Would this encourage trade between natives and European merchants?

How would this effect Asian economics, with Indian-states and Ming China?

Keeping New Granada lets the Spanish crown come out successfully with its first brush with bankruptcy in 1528 as per OTL, since they can still hock that territory to the Welsers. The next big financial use of the New World that I can point to as a specific event would be the 1535 conquest of Tunis; IOTL this was paid by Inca Atahualpa's ransom IIRC, and ITTL something else is going to have to give, though as the Spanish crown would now have relatively secure revenue from Milan and Naples they could use that to pay for further loans. Taking your questions in order:

-The Spanish would definitely be able to trade with some of these surviving states. If they have Panama, they can trade with the Inca who IOTL were eager to seize Spanish technology and goods to turn to their advantage. However, without direct colonial control the Spanish will not be able to brutally extract wealth like OTL; trade will not bring in revenues equivalent to OTL's conquest.

-IMO no. The French and English will try, and privateers like Roberval and Drake may successfully make one-off contact and trade for goods, but I don't see any other power being able to break a Spanish monopoly on trade in the region until the 17th century (and maybe not even then, if ITTL Spanish settlement patterns create a more densely populated and better defended Caribbean).

-IOTL, Natives were often happy to trade with Europeans; ITTL perhaps we could see a situation with the Spanish controlling choke points of trade in a similar manner to the Portuguese in Asia. Keep in mind that in centralized societies, the elites on both sides of the trade will do their best to control whatever trade happens so as not to disrupt their cushy spot in society. Plants and animals are still exchanged, though the Native polities will have different priorities for what to emphasize than OTL's colonial governments; much less land given to sugarcane, more given to plants like bananas and taro and metal tools and weapons becoming a major focus for trade.

-The effect on the Columbian exchange on Indian states is frustratingly hard to find, though perhaps I just haven't looked hard enough. There are mixed opinions on the effect of New World silver on Ming China, but IMO without the galleon trade we will see a much poorer southern China than OTL. This could make the the south more hostile to the Ming regime, preventing the creation of a Southern Ming rump state if the Qing conquest goes through, though who knows-perhaps a butterfly effect will be that the big rebellion that finally takes down the Ming ITTL starts in the Yangtze river valley, completely changing how post-Ming China looks.

 

[GameBawesome]

Another thing, I’m wondering would happen is, if Missionaries came to Mesoamerica and tried to convert the natives, would some of them adopted the “Christian God” along side their other deities?