Earlier "Liberated" Greece if Orlov Revolt succeeds

[Zealot]

What if Orlov Revolt hadn’t been an outright failure from greek point of view, and with Russian naval and supplies assistance Greek rebels had managed to secure at least control of Peloponese + Crete and some islands?

I know the whole scheme was ill-planned and a lot of PODs are needed to turn a mere secondary front distraction to the Ottomans into a liberation campaign on its own, but besides that, I’m curious about the idea of what kind of proto-Greece would emerge from this earler Liberation.

Remember, it’s 1770s Europe, it’s NOT an independence war fought BY THE GREEKS ALONE, but a Russian war effort SUPPORTING THE GREEKS….I think Russia would claim the liberated greece for the Tsar, and place some of the Orlov brothers, perhaps Alexey, in the position of Viceroy, with the purpose of establishing a permanent naval base for Russian Fleet in Eastern Mediterranean.


And from this point, there are plenty of possibilities….. Considering that the brits will soon be entangled in American Independence War, and then their reaction will be delayed….how long can Russian rule last? Given the fact that Russian administration will be rather extractive (there’s evident need to fund troops and fleet) , I asume the “unruly” Greeks will revolt sooner or later (no matter which POD is, the local leadership was characterised by its fractious nature), and such a distant outpost will be difficult to subdue by the Russians…


And the, if Greeks manage to liberate themself of Russian “protection”, what’s next? Will they fall into Brittish sphere? Which role will they play during Napoleonic wars? Will Enlightened intelligentsia align Greece with French Empire…. ? Will Greece gain enosis with Ionian Islands?

 

[Wendell]

If this effort succeeds, there's a Russian prince reigning at least for the moment in Greece.

 

[Zealot]

If this effort succeeds, there's a Russian prince reigning at least for the moment in Greece.

I suppose Russian predominance would be difficult to mantain. Greece is far away, there's no land border, and there are lots of rivals nearby eager to fund anti-Russian uprisings

 

[Chris S]

Why would Russia claim Greece? Was there anything said by anyone of the Russians supporting the revolt or in the Russian government at the time indicating that as a goal?

It seems more likely to me that Greece would become independent as a kingdom or principality and that a relative of the Tsar would become the new Greek monarch and that a treaty of alliance would be signed (and that down the generations (assuming the new monarchy in Greece lasted) this Russo-Greek alliance would be reaffirmed and strengthened through marriages between the Russian and Greek Royal families). In effect Greece would become a Russian protectorate which would square well with Russia's desires and claims to be the protector of Christians (especially Orthodox Christians) in the Ottoman Empire (and the Balkans generally).

 

[Lady Visenya]

Would probably be significantly more Roman in identity given that the Westerners aren't shoveling shit down their throats so that's cool.

 

[Zealot]

Why would Russia claim Greece? Was there anything said by anyone of the Russians supporting the revolt or in the Russian government at the time indicating that as a goal?

It seems more likely to me that Greece would become independent as a kingdom or principality and that a relative of the Tsar would become the new Greek monarch and that a treaty of alliance would be signed (and that down the generations (assuming the new monarchy in Greece lasted) this Russo-Greek alliance would be reaffirmed and strengthened through marriages between the Russian and Greek Royal families). In effect Greece would become a Russian protectorate which would square well with Russia's desires and claims to be the protector of Christians (especially Orthodox Christians) in the Ottoman Empire (and the Balkans generally).

The fact is at that moment there were FEW avaiable relatives among Russian Dinasty: the Greek Plan envisioned the 2nd male grandson of Tsarina Catherine the Great becoming King of liberated Greece, but he was born in 1779, AFTER Orlov Revolt. His father and his elder brother were expected to become Tsar, so they were out of the question.

OTOH, I'm not sure about Russian mindset regarding "liberation" of Christian peoples....ask Romanians, Armenians, Georgians..... If Russia wins a 1 v 1 war against the Ottomans, and is able to impose her terms without medding of any third party , she will expect direct territorial gains.

 

[Chris S]

The fact is at that moment there were FEW avaiable relatives among Russian Dinasty: the Greek Plan envisioned the 2nd male grandson of Tsarina Catherine the Great becoming King of liberated Greece, but he was born in 1779, AFTER Orlov Revolt. His father and his elder brother were expected to become Tsar, so they were out of the question.

OTOH, I'm not sure about Russian mindset regarding "liberation" of Christian peoples....ask Romanians, Armenians, Georgians..... If Russia wins a 1 v 1 war against the Ottomans, and is able to impose her terms without medding of any third party , she will expect direct territorial gains.

Sorry, it still doesn't seem quite right to me. Reading up a bit (on Wikipedia admittledly) it was mentioned that Russia had been sending emissaries to parts of Greece since the 1760s to try to stir up a revolt and establish a pro-Russian Greek state - so clearly they didn't only ever envision Catherine's 2nd male grandson becoming King of Greece then. Given that a part of Catherine's Greek Plan envisioned Potemkin (who was not a member of the royal family but from a family of middle-income noble landowners) becoming King of Dacia (so basically King of Romania) there is clearly no reason why the earlier attempts at establishing a pro-Russian Greek state would not have also envisioned some Russian noble becoming the Greek King. This also strongly goes against the idea that "the Russian mindset" always expected direct territorial gains - Russia in the Greek plan had no problems establishing an independent Romanian state with a Russian noble as "King of Dacia" rather than annexing it directly, and Moldavia and Wallachia would be directly neighbouring territories compared to relatively far away Greece.

EDIT: In fact, one of Catherine's favourite nobles besides Potemkin was Grigory Orlov who was Alexey's brother. I could very well see Grigory Orlov being made King of Greece in fact.

EDIT 2: and one could see the Orlov dynasty inter-marrying down the line with relatives of the Russian Royal Family to maintain the alliance and linkages to Russia

 

[Wendell]

Are the Russian Oldenburgs a thing yet at this point?

 

[Zealot]

Sorry, it still doesn't seem quite right to me. Reading up a bit (on Wikipedia admittledly) it was mentioned that Russia had been sending emissaries to parts of Greece since the 1760s to try to stir up a revolt and establish a pro-Russian Greek state - so clearly they didn't only ever envision Catherine's 2nd male grandson becoming King of Greece then. Given that a part of Catherine's Greek Plan envisioned Potemkin (who was not a member of the royal family but from a family of middle-income noble landowners) becoming King of Dacia (so basically King of Romania) there is clearly no reason why the earlier attempts at establishing a pro-Russian Greek state would not have also envisioned some Russian noble becoming the Greek King. This also strongly goes against the idea that "the Russian mindset" always expected direct territorial gains - Russia in the Greek plan had no problems establishing an independent Romanian state with a Russian noble as "King of Dacia" rather than annexing it directly, and Moldavia and Wallachia would be directly neighbouring territories compared to relatively far away Greece.

EDIT: In fact, one of Catherine's favourite nobles besides Potemkin was Grigory Orlov who was Alexey's brother. I could very well see Grigory Orlov being made King of Greece in fact.

EDIT 2: and one could see the Orlov dynasty inter-marrying down the line with relatives of the Russian Royal Family to maintain the alliance and linkages to Russia

Well, a satellite kingdom with Russian-born Monarch could also work....but IMHO it's just a sort of disguise, considering that Morean ports would host Russian Mediterranean Fleet