Development of Vietnam in a world without the PRC?

[varyar]

In brief, I’m starting to think more about East Asia in my In and Out of the Reich setting (Nazis conquer USSR and bring UK to the negotiating table, don’t ask how), specifically what the impact of thr Nationalists winning the Chinese Civil War will have on Vietnam. I haven’t gotten much farther than “Sucks to be a Communist here” and I picture three possible outcomes.

1) Vietnam, like OTL Taiwan and South Korea becomes a prosperous liberal democracy.
2) Vietnam, like OTL Vietnam with a few differences in details, becomes a not-so-rich authoritarian regime.
3) Vietnam falls in the middle, kind of like OTL Thailand.

What do people more informed about the region think is most plausible?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Without Chinese material aid the VM are stuck waging a war in the back woods against the French and the non-communist nationalists they recently double crossed. Seems likely there's some form of peace where Vietnam gains independence within France's influence. Indochina is likely a mini Françafrique. So I guess for polling purposes Thailand but poorer.

 

[Don Corleone]

Awesome!! Always good to see a new entry from the Therese Lohmeyer universe.

 

[varyar]

Awesome!! Always good to see a new entry from the Therese Lohmeyer universe.

Thanks!

Without Chinese material aid the VM are stuck waging a war in the back woods against the French and the non-communist nationalists they recently double crossed. Seems likely there's some form of peace where Vietnam gains independence within France's influence. Indochina is likely a mini Françafrique. So I guess for polling purposes Thailand but poorer.

France isn’t a factor in this TL, for better or worse (editor - better). But the ROC is likely to fill the role of anti-communist patron.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Between two and three with dreams of being option one, speaking as a Filipino.

 

[varyar]

Between two and three with dreams of being option one, speaking as a Filipino.

That seems most plausible but I’m trying to find a way for Vietnam to do better (to balance out at least some of the setting’s general bleakness).

 

[Metempsychosis]

That seems most plausible but I’m trying to find a way for Vietnam to do better (to balance out at least some of the setting’s general bleakness).

To be fair, the Philippines had socio-economic potential IOTL, so I assume the same could be said of this alternate Vietnam. Just avoid brutal dictators and too much CIA intervention, and this entire region could be option one.

 

[Metempsychosis]

Actually, if France and the Communists are taken out of the equation, that might be really good for the region in general. Cambodia would not have Saloth Sar genociding his own people, for one, and if an anti-colonial China is a new patron of the region, some stability might raise up all our economies. There wouldn't be the one million Indonesians murdered for communist sympathies (and possibly for being Chinese-descended) either. It might well be a very corrupt region, but a stable one.

 

[CHKeeley]

Without Chinese material aid the VM are stuck waging a war in the back woods against the French and the non-communist nationalists they recently double crossed. Seems likely there's some form of peace where Vietnam gains independence within France's influence. Indochina is likely a mini Françafrique. So I guess for polling purposes Thailand but poorer.

This definitely seems likely, although that is discounting a later insurgency against the French and/or their monarch clients in the 60s/70s/80s. Because even if the neo-colonial transition goes smoothly from the 1940s to the 1960s, I see an explosion being relatively likely some decades later considering the social dislocation and lack of legitimacy that gave rise to the Indochinese Wars in the first place haven’t really been solved and probably wouldn’t be under the French thumb.

If things do go smoothly, I think the Françafrique analogy is a very good one. Especially considering current politics (which I won’t mention). An export economy, and a military geared towards controlling localized revolts and dissent. A political class sharply divided by the question of modernization, with debates over clientelist open markets versus nationalist protectionism which results in a tradition of elite level coup d’etats (sometimes with and sometimes without popular acclamation). Corruption and patronage networks pretty much dominating the state, occasionally being interrupted by inputs from the metropole or from risings from below. Etc.

 

[ComradeH]

As much as I have (political) problems with the Chinese, I have to admit: Chinese material supports was crucial for the Vietnamese (represented by the Viet Minh) to regain and/or to protect their independence. After all, getting into contact with PRC was one of the reasons, why "Operation Border 1949-50" was launched. In European-based material, this is known as "Battle for Colonial Route 4".

Chinese materials (as well as technical support) was extremely crucial for the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, where the key to Viet Minh success lies in AA batteries and artillery support. Granted, the later was extremely well camouflaged by Vietnamese hand, but the first came via, if not from, PRC.

Thus, without PRC support - Which I presume it means a victory of RoC - I expect Viet Minh to be killed to the last man somewhere in 1949. Probably with a combined operation between RoC and France.

Then, it would be hugely dependent on the French development. Would the be "understanding" of the local issues and try to implement some reform? Or would they just keep their old colonial programs?

 

[varyar]

One thing that wasn’t clear enough in the OP (apologies) is that this is a Nazis Win TL, so France is largely off the board, too. The Nationalists win the Chinese Civil War, the Soviets are trying to hold the Urals and not worrying about anything else, and the Americans don’t get involved (or at least are involved only to a very limited degree).

 

[jlckansas]

Either China doesn't want the French on their border, especially post WW2. FDR backed the Viet Minh against the Japanese and part of the post war US position was supporting independence for Vietnam itself. You could see post war the ROC supporting the French from leaving Vietnam, you might not see as much overt support like arms and such, but they did have a seat at the Security Council and would be looking at using that as a way to make that happen. Chiang would rather have a disorganized Vietnam governing itself, than having on his border a French ran colony.

 

[CHKeeley]

One thing that wasn’t clear enough in the OP (apologies) is that this is a Nazis Win TL, so France is largely off the board, too. The Nationalists win the Chinese Civil War, the Soviets are trying to hold the Urals and not worrying about anything else, and the Americans don’t get involved (or at least are involved only to a very limited degree).

So with a Nazi victory in the west and a lack of American involvement, what becomes of the Japanese Empire? Without American intervention, even if the Japanese lose out and sign an armistice with the Kuomintang, I would imagine they remain a significant power in East Asia and may even outright turn Indochina into a series of Japanese client states.

 

[varyar]

So with a Nazi victory in the west and a lack of American involvement, what becomes of the Japanese Empire? Without American intervention, even if the Japanese lose out and sign an armistice with the Kuomintang, I would imagine they remain a significant power in East Asia and may even outright turn Indochina into a series of Japanese client states.

I admit I haven’t explored how the Pacific War played out ITTL, but I figure it might have ended a year or so early with the US not involved in Europe. Downfall 1944? But you’re right, they probably mapped closely to the real post-war Japan; then again, maybe without the 1950s re-armament. There’s no Korean War or Soviet threat here.

 

[ComradeH]

FDR backed the Viet Minh against the Japanese and part of the post war US position was supporting independence for Vietnam itself.

True. That happens in OTL.

But FDR passed away too soon, and OTL US also "revoked" the support for Vietnamese independence.

 

[jlckansas]

True. That happens in OTL.

But FDR passed away too soon, and OTL US also "revoked" the support for Vietnamese independence.

Yes, but what if the ROC wants there to be a free Vietnam instead of a French Colony? Historically both China's, ROC and PRC, wanted to get the colonial powers out of China and off their borders. That is one reason the ROC was pro US because they doing economic colonialism and helping the government, yes I know bribes and such but was still helping the country down at the local level with business, schools, and government.

 

[Alex1guy]

Depends where you wanna take your story.

From your thread I'm unsure if Japan is still involved in the Pacific war but with the Japanese defeated but France in the Axis camp, maybe the US don't see communism as the main threat and maintain support for the Viet Minh. They were compelled I believe by France not wanting to join NATO unless their empire was restored, but without that factor and the fact that the USSR is a spent force, maybe they're more happy to assist the Viet Mihn.

Maybe lots of Chinese communists fled to Vietnam after the Nationalist Victory leading to. Chinese invasion in the 50s. Then you could have tensions between China and the USA about invading Vietnam? (Some delicious irony there).

China meanwhile gets bogged down in Vietnam like everybody else with pressure to pull out from its erstwhile allies. Maybe the US throws Vietnam under the bus and let's China have at it, meaning you could dictate the fate of a sino Vietnamese war.