Decision Points: The Presidency of Al Gore

John Farson

Banned
DTanza said:
Damn, the Republicans still led their coup against Davis? Well at least we didn't get saddled with the Governator.
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And Issa may very well end up as a one-term governor (less than one term, actually, considering that Davis served out most of 2003, grrrr, stupid recall:mad:).

EDIT: Though I too agree that Gore might have attempted to do something to help out a Democratic governor of the largest state in the union.
 

Orville_third

Banned
One wonders what the Katrina response will be. On the federal level, Gore will have professional emergency managers running FEMA, and there will be no drain on NG and CoE funding resources and people thanks to Iraq. That said, MR-GO will still be open, levees will likely be underfunded, and we don't know if Gore will do what Bush did and not declare NOLA and coastal Louisiana a disaster area before the hurricane. Of course it's likely that the states will have the same problems as before, to say nothing of the response organizations.
 

hcallega

Edited out the section on the California recall. I forgot that in my notes I had clearly circled that Gore would have acted to bail-out Davis, largely mitgating the driving cause for recall.
 

hcallega

The Race of Their Lifes ​

“America is moving forward. We are a safer and stronger nation than we were in 2001. But we are not finished. It is time to renew the Anti-Terrorism Act. It is time to provide greater resources to the men and women defending our homeland security. But it is also time to take meaningful steps to help many hard working Americans who are struggling to make ends meet. The cost of a mortgage, health insurance, and college are stifling. I urge you to take action to help our working families. Pass a middle-class tax cut that will put more money in the pockets of most Americans, while not busting our budget. Pass a patient’s bill of rights so that parents no longer have to choose between medical care for their child and payments on their home. Pass a prescription drug benefit to ensure that seniors remain healthy late in life. These are common-sense and practical solutions. Success will help ensure a healthy and strong future for America. But failure will brand as having missed an incredibly opportunity, and I do not wish to see that happen.”

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Senator John McCain watched the State of the Union Address in person. He sat beside his good friends, Senators John Kerry and Lindsey Graham. This bipartisan scene was not missed by the media. But at the time, McCain was more interested in the content of the President’s speech than the prognostications of a rabid press. He was the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the Presidency. It was late January, and he yet to go on the roll that would place victory squarely in the crosshairs. But McCain was smart enough to know that he was more than likely to square-off against the man behind the Speaker’s Rostrum in the summer and fall. It was worth soaking it all up.

McCain and Gore had served together in the Senate during the 1980s and early 90s. They had little serious interaction, despite a mutual interest on foreign policy. Senator Gore positioned himself as a hawk in a party of doves. He supported the expansion of missile programs and opposed cuts in defense spending. While these positions might have benefited Gore in a general election, they arguably held him back in the Democratic primaries. Meanwhile, McCain was focusing on the issues of service members and veterans. He took a more low-key approach and drew less media attention. But his speech at the 1988 Republican National Convention propelled him into the spotlight. His Reagan-esque conservatism, experiences in a Hanoi prison, and straightforward style made him a finalist for the second spot on the ticket. But both Gore and McCain’s stocks took a turn for the worse. In 1989, McCain became embroiled in the Keating Five scandal. While he was eventually cleared of any wrongdoing, the scandal still damaged the Senator’s rise to power. That same year, Gore’s son was nearly killed after being hit by a car. This played a major factor in his decision to forego running for President in 1992. The Democratic nomination that year was won by a fellow Southern moderate, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. Gore was ultimately chosen as Clinton’s running-mate, a consolation prize for a man who had spent his entire life maneuvering towards the White House. McCain’s path was a longer one. He recouped his image during the Clinton years a maverick that was willing to break with his own party. But in 2000, the year Gore completed his ascent to the Presidency, McCain was defeated in his pursuit of the Republican nomination. Four years later, both men were in the midst of campaigning or the same job. McCain was making his case through stump speeches in small towns in New Hampshire and Michigan. President Gore was making his on the national stage, in front of millions of Americans and their Congressional representatives.

The Republican nominating contest put immense strain on John McCain. He had always enjoyed campaigning, at least at the most basic and primitive level. Shaking hands and talking to voters was his drug. He loved it; connecting with people on that most basic of levels. It served him well in New Hampshire, a state where retail politics trump even the best crafted television ads or the most sweeping rhetoric. McCain’s campaign, managed by John Weaver and Rick Davis, correctly predicted that a big win in the nation’s first primary would propel their candidate to the nomination. The momentum from New Hampshire would allow McCain to draw progressively larger fundraising totals and begin to clear the field. That was the case heading into Super Tuesday, when he squared off with the only candidate still capable of defeating him: Rick Santorum.

Senator Santorum’s campaign had made up ground in the polls and fundraising after his victory in Iowa. But his staunchly conservative tone made him anathema to moderate Republicans north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Nonetheless, Santorum remained in the race. He was a thorn in the side of McCain, forcing him to move to the right on cultural issues like gay marriage and abortion. The election had suddenly changed from a purely foreign policy contest to a much more complicated race about the nature of government’s role in the morality of the nation. McCain wasn’t ideally prepared for this task, but he had the perfect foil in Santorum. Even though he was pro-life and anti-gay marriage, the Arizona Senator looked like a down-right secular hedonist compared to Santorum. He supported leaving marriage up to the states and opposed a total ban on abortions. Those were the views of a majority of Republicans, even though a small and vocal minority often dominated the discussion. Or at least that was what Senator McCain hoped.

Super Tuesday, 2004, was on March 2nd. It was designed to be early so that the nominee would have plenty of time to consolidate support before the general election. This was particularly important when running against an incumbent President who had spent the past six years developing a campaign infrastructure. The states that voted on Tuesday were primarily Northern. That favored McCain. But the Santorum campaign chose to target several states in an attempt to stage a comeback. Their strategy involved winning Georgia, a Bible-Belt state where his core message played very well, and Ohio, a state with many blue-collar Catholics who related to Santorum’s background and more moderate economic views. But he would also have to do well in California. Even though the delegate-rich state was winner-take-all, a strong showing by Santorum would prove that he was a force to be reckoned with. This plan was all well and good, until Rudy Giuliani made a surprise visit to Arizona. The former frontrunner’s campaign had been decimated after a horrible showing in New Hampshire and losses in seemingly winnable contests in Delaware and Michigan. Publically, Giuliani claimed to be staying in the race till Florida voted. But as his polling and fundraising numbers sunk, it became clear that simply was not an option. So America’s Mayor did the only thing he could to save face. He met with McCain on the Sunday before Super Tuesday, attending church and sharing a lunch together. The end result was obvious: Giuliani was withdrawing and would endorse McCain. In a speech emphasizing the need for a strong and level-headed Commander-in-Chief, Giuliani praised McCain for his national service and “undying, 100% commitment to this, the greatest country on Earth.”
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With Giuliani out of the race, the Super Tuesday results were little more than a formality. Santorum did narrowly win Georgia, but was swept out besides that. McCain won by commanding margins in Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Vermont. He won comfortably in California, and pulled out a narrow but safe lead in Ohio. At that point, the race was over. Santorum took to the television the next day, ending his campaign. But his speech was anything but conciliatory. He spoke of an American reawakening, one of “the spirit and the soul.” He called on a restoration of traditional values and a rejection of a “morality based solely on convenience.” Most damning, Santorum promised to “keep fighting, as long as I have the ability, for this America.” He offered no endorsement of McCain, not until several days later, and seemed more focused on the future. Observers had to wonder whether the two candidates were even members of the same party.

With the Republican nomination wrapped up (only Ron Paul remained to challenge McCain), the general election season began in earnest. John McCain chose to take a week off the trail, vacationing with his family in Southern California before renewing his efforts. That was not the case in the White House. President Gore had been running for reelection since the midterm elections two years earlier. The Democratic defeats, due in large part to a weak economy and frustration with the slow pace of the war on terror, helped decide the President’s reelection strategy for him. Gore would be forced to go on the offensive. His record alone would not be enough to win reelection. The economy remained weak. Unemployment was on the rise despite growth in the housing market. Internationally, Osama bin Laden remained at large while Islamic terror organizations showed their ability to operate by bombing a Spanish commuter train. The election shortly thereafter put a Socialist government in charge of Spain, putting yet another crack in the multinational coalition taking an aggressive posture in the war on terror. Both at home and abroad, Gore would be forced to attack the Republicans, following a strategy similar to the one which put Harry Truman back in office after an unpopular first term. His campaign managers, Ron Klain and Ed Rendell, planned to attack whoever the Republican nominee was with ads painting him as part of a “do-nothing Congress” and an opponent of the middle class. This would be more difficult with McCain, a relatively moderate voice and supporter of campaign finance and HMO reform. Nonetheless, the Democratic team pushed forward and began running ads the week after McCain clinched the nomination.

But as soon as the race began in earnest, it suddenly came to a screeching halt. President Ronald Reagan, the founding father of the modern Republican Party, passed away on June 5th. His death sent shockwaves throughout the country. Both President Gore and Senator McCain suspended their early campaigning and returned to Washington. Ads were pulled, speeches cancelled, and a time of mourning began. Both men delivered speeches at the late-President’s funeral. Gore praised Reagan for his leadership during the Cold War and his role in increasing autism awareness after his Presidency. McCain’s speech was a bit more personal. He remembered how Reagan inspired him to get involved in politics and deeply informed his sense of how government should work. The death of Reagan had a tangible impact on the race. Nostalgia towards the 1980s and the Reagan-era bolstered McCain’s support, bringing the polls to a dead heat.
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Another development in the summer was the release of a new Michael Moore film titled “The Cause Endures.” Named after Ted Kennedy’s speech at the 1980 Democratic convention, Moore’s film was a call to arms for progressives nationwide. He criticized centrist Democrats including Presidents Clinton and Gore for “caving in” to Republican demands and for attempt to coopt their agenda instead of standing up for liberal and progressive values. He was particularly critical of the influence of Wall Street on Clinton and Gore, claiming that “It was Robert Rubin, future Citigroup board member, who convinced President Clinton to cut spending instead of reduce taxes for struggling middle class families, who helped pass the job-killing North American Free Trade Agreement, and advocated for massive financial deregulation. Now his protégés whisper into the ear of President Gore, taking him down the same, crony capitalist path.” The film received positive ratings from many critics, especially those on the more liberal side of the spectrum. But many liberals attacked Moore for releasing a hatchet piece during an election year. Senator Paul Wellstone, who was interviewed for the film and advocated for a more liberal Democratic Party, claimed “when I talked to Mike, I was under the impression his film was about praising the tremendous legacy of progressives within the Democratic Party. Instead, he wasted this opportunity at attacking a President who has consistently fought for greater equality and opportunity in the face of an intransigent conservative opposition.”

As the campaign season resumed and headed into the hot days of the summer, the respective strategies of the candidates began to unfold. The President’s campaign mirrored the neo-populism of his effort in 2000. Gore attacked McCain for standing in the way of middle class tax cuts and joining with Republicans to “beat the war drum” for Iraq and oppose expanded social programs. He campaigned largely in the Rust Belt, targeting Reagan Democrats who may have been attracted to McCain’s background and hawkish views. Gore emphasized his support for tougher trading standards with China, tax cuts for middle class families, and an expansion of healthcare to cover more children and seniors. These views played well. He also defended his foreign policy record, claiming that “bin Laden is on the run and Afghanistan is on its way to becoming a democracy. We’ve taught any nation that might harbor terrorists a lesson: If you aide our enemies, you will face the consequences.” The McCain campaign was also on the attack. The Senator attacked the President for “leading from behind” on foreign policy and doing too little to pressure state sponsors of terrorism around the world. He also lambasted Gore for twice vetoing tax cuts that “would put more money in the pockets of every American and grow our struggling economy.” The back-and-forth race was deeply polarizing despite the fact that both candidates held relatively moderate ideologies. Social issues and foreign policy drove many voters to hold more staunch views towards the candidates, especially in comparison to 2000. As the conventions neared, the polls showed a dead-heat, with Gore holding a lead within the margin of error. It was on July 21st that the next dramatic turning point came. Senator McCain, after meeting with members of his campaign and various candidates, selected former Michigan Governor John Engler as his running mate. The choice was praised by conservatives and moderates alike, and gave McCain added strength in the Midwest. As the candidates turned the corner and headed for the final stretch, the election was anyone’s game.
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Historico

Awesome latest installment HC, I think you hit the argument that why Santorum would still end up being the last man standing from the Social Conservative wing in the party? I noticed that you had Rick loose Michigan ITTL as he did IOTL, but I wonder what was your rationale about that. I remember that he led the most polls in the state before his "JFK" Comments hit the web and downplayed his catholic voter support. But If Rick doesn't do that, and has the same amount of momentum, he could still pick up the state(he only lost by 3% of the vote). I think your right that he doesn't have the staying power to go all the distance with McCain, but I think it would have more to do McCain;s ability to rack up an early lead in states one, because we would be back to dealing with winner-take-all Delegate allocation ITTL 2004 primary.

So I think it would have been interesting for the narrative sake and diverge us alittle bit from OTL's primaries for Santorum to have won Michigan, build up a seemingly rational argument that he's winning key states that the GOP will need to knock out Gore in the fall. Just a thought, eventhough I really just want to see an old-school Ohio Super Tuesday fight, and have Santorum last long enough to were he's smashed in his home state by the time late April rolls around:D
 
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THE OBSERVER

Cool. Looks like Michael Moore damaged himself with most, if not all, of the "Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party" to quote Wellstone. So much for Sicko, which turned me on to being active in political campaigns and initiatives, such as health care reform. Hcallega, who do you think should've been McCain's running mate if he won the nomination in 2000?
 
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Cylon_Number_14

LOL called it with Engler. I learned of him from PelligrinoShot's Zhirinovsky TL. Engler was high on the shortlist for VP in 2000 and remained popular in a state that went less than 50% to Gore. And as a governor he's got that balance of DC Outsider yet Mainstream.
 

Unknown

Hcallega, I was just going over the Day of Fire post, and I noticed something:

Gore was in Montana on 9/11. It's mentioned that he gave his speech at 9:00 in the morning. Is that Mountain (Montana is in the Mountain time zone) or Eastern (which would make it 7:00 in Montana) time, hcallega?

Because, if it's Mountain, that makes it about 11:00 a.m. in New York and DC, meaning more people die in the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.

Good update so far.
 
DTanza

DTanza

Banned
As long as McCain doesn't pull his crazy "ohmygodiwannabepresidentsobad" rants during the debates, this'll be a close one. Still hoping Gore pulls through though.
 
Stolengood

Stolengood

Banned
If I may ask... who the hell is Engler? :confused:

Also, you'll forgive me for saying this, but with two alternate early-2000s Presidential TLs running at the same time (the second being A Bridge to the 21st Century, by SLCer), and me following both, I kind of got confused when I started re-reading the latest update... especially since both TLs are now on the same year. :eek:
 

THE OBSERVER

Unknown said:
Hcallega, I was just going over the Day of Fire post, and I noticed something:

Gore was in Montana on 9/11. It's mentioned that he gave his speech at 9:00 in the morning. Is that Mountain (Montana is in the Mountain time zone) or Eastern (which would make it 7:00 in Montana) time, hcallega?

Because, if it's Mountain, that makes it about 11:00 a.m. in New York and DC, meaning more people die in the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.

Good update so far.
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I think it's 9 AM Eastern time!
 
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