Cuauhtémoc escapes Tenochtitlan, leads a rebellion against Spain?

[Vinization]

The last tlatoani of the Aztec Triple Alliance, Cuauhtémoc, attempted to leave Tenochtitlan in a canoe right as the city was about to fall to the Spanish conquistadors and their numerous native allies. However, he was caught by a Spanish vessel and, after spending four years as a de facto prisoner, was executed on Hernán Cortés' orders in 1525.

But what if he escaped unharmed? Could Cuauhtémoc lead a rebellion against the conquistadors, similar to the one led by Manco Inca Yupanqui in the Andes, which almost recaptured Cusco? Most of the local states despised the Aztecs, of course, but could a few years of Spanish (mis)rule convince them that the new boss is even worse than the old one?

Could the Tarascans support this hypothetical rebellion, perhaps as a way to take over the Valley of Mexico through puppets?

 

[Vinization]

Could Cuauhtémoc set up an "Aztec Vilcabamba" somewhere in the Sierra Madre, or would he have to spend the rest of his life as a refugee if he's unable to defeat the Spanish?

 

[Vinization]

@EMT @GameBawesome

 

[GameBawesome]

Okay, so realistically, this Aztec Rumpstate isn’t going to survive very long. It’s at the doorstep of a newly formed New Spain, and Spanish conquistadors would probably end this rumpstate, just like they did with Inca Vilcabama. I’d give it a decade or so

 

[EMT]

I can't speak much for the situation on the ground in Mexico at the time as it isn't my forte, but I can at least offer a contrasting point with how it'd differ from the Inca rebellion.

With the Inca, you've got to consider the context through which Atahualpa was captured while Cuzco did nothing. Atahualpa had just fought a harsh civil war with a clear north-south divide and hadn't gotten an opportunity to even step foot in Cuzco before the Spanish showed up. Huascar had just been beaten on the field of battle and captured, but there was no 'clean up'. When Huascar was captured by Atahualpa and then Atahualpa captured by the Spanish, as far as Cuzco was concerned this was just more of the ongoing civil war shenanigans with a new player on the board. The true nature of the Spanish wouldn't be on full display to the Inca until they were in control of Cuzco, at which point you get a more organized response that had widespread support from the local people, considering the numbers the Inca were running around with. Unfortunately for them, the siege equipment and supplies needed to sustain themselves for the capture of Cuzco was either not accessible to them or had been severely depleted via the freshly concluded civil war wrecking the Inca's traditional supply cache system. It's no exaggeration to say that what most hindered the Inca revolt was how ridiculous a citadel Cuzco was to crack without gunpowder.

Again, can't speak on the Aztec situation but you've got the imminent issue that the Aztecs weren't exactly falling apart at the seams when Cortez showed up and it was the widespread defection of their subjects that helped the Spanish overcome the numbers hurdle. The Inca had defectors too, don't get me wrong, but it's nowhere near close to what the Aztecs have got boiling under the lid. You're not going to get widespread defections from Spain to the Aztecs willingly. The Inca are a more cohesive state with fewer subject groups able to defect or even organize themselves considering their habits of forced deportation and assimilation. Part of the Inca's stability compared to their peers across the entire world at this time was how the Andes isolates people and makes them dependent on the state, especially post-deportation. Those types of institutions falling apart (probably) played a factor in the response against the Spanish in the Andes vs. a potential response in Mesoamerica