Consequences of an ROC Hainan?

varyar

varyar

Suppose that the Nationalists, by some stroke of luck and skill, are able to fend off the Communist assault on Hainan. Then Korea happens and the US becomes more active in the region again.

What effects will having a second Nationalist stronghold off the coast have on China and East Asia in general?

One might be tempted to say 'not much' but a difference that doesn't make a difference isn't very interesting.

Will ROC Hainan tip the scales and convince America to let the ROC get more actively involved in Vietnam? (Very unlikely but interesting idea - Hainan is the staging area for an American invasion of North Vietnam in the mid 1960s)

Does this prompt China to ramp up its naval expansion a little earlier in the 1990s? What do you, the readers at home, think?
 

Booster Gold

This actually hurts the ROC quite a bit. Hainan overstretches their defensive capabilities, is remote from their base of operations and deeply underdeveloped. Any men and materiel they move there are easily cut off, any new things they try to move there are interdicted - losses on top of losses. China meanwhile has an almost literal walkover to take it. No way in hell the ROC can hold it, even until Korea. Trying to do so, would probably just gift the CCP valuable knowledge in amphibious operations.

IMHO - if, somehow, they manage to hold Hainan for a bit, they won't hold it for long and the effort in trying might fatally weaken them
 

Deleted member 109224

Booster Gold said:
This actually hurts the ROC quite a bit. Hainan overstretches their defensive capabilities, is remote from their base of operations and deeply underdeveloped. Any men and materiel they move there are easily cut off, any new things they try to move there are interdicted - losses on top of losses. China meanwhile has an almost literal walkover to take it. No way in hell the ROC can hold it, even until Korea. Trying to do so, would probably just gift the CCP valuable knowledge in amphibious operations.

IMHO - if, somehow, they manage to hold Hainan for a bit, they won't hold it for long and the effort in trying might fatally weaken them
Click to expand...
If they hold it by Korea, the US Navy is protecting the island.
 
Lusitania

Lusitania

Donor
In a scenario that they can hold it is one that for what ever reason the PRC is weaker. The effort to take mainland China is greater and they unable to expend enough resources to take the island and then US arrives in the region.
I read that the only reason PRC not attack Taiwan was due to Mao not wanting to get entangled with US in 1949-1950.
 
Gillan1220

Gillan1220

I still find it ironic how the communists never took Kinmen Island but was able to successfully capture Hainan with the use of junks. Now back to the scenario, if the ROC manages to hold to Hainan, they would need American reinforcements to protect any communist landings. We would probably another Battle of Kinmen where in we see fortified beaches and M3 Stuarts running over the communists.
 

ComradeH

varyar said:
Will ROC Hainan tip the scales and convince America to let the ROC get more actively involved in Vietnam? (Very unlikely but interesting idea - Hainan is the staging area for an American invasion of North Vietnam in the mid 1960s)
Click to expand...

Why not go further and let Hainan island being the main base for US air, naval and commando raids into North Viet Nam? An US land invasion on northern region of Viet Nam is always possible, the question is "in what situation it does NOT turn into a full scale Hot War?"
 
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