I just got done reading the Sino-Soviet War thread, with the various angles of analysis. I want to take the Sino-Soviet border clashes and what-if war a step further and try and find a possible path to Chinese victory. Here is what I have so far...
Most predictions hinge on China's use of massed numbers in battle, but through the 1930s and WWII, if every one remembers, the Communists were extensively involved in guerilla warfare. Mao was no Napoleon, but he had commanded troops and was smart enough to see the lop-sidedness in training, equipment, and preparation. Even with massed numbers, it is still going to be a slaughter, which leaves them with nothing close to a guarantee of victory. Preemptive guerrilla warfare can level the playing field; forward-deploying commando teams across the border for sabotage and striking at targets of opportunity, particularly the trans-Siberian rail system, could paralyze a Soviet advance and make the massed waves of Chinese a withering force.
Of course the Russians possess Spetsnaz and the home turf advantage, particularly in the area of arctic warfare. The Chinese need outside help.
Of course, there aren't many nations that they can turn to that would help them like that. What nation is experienced enough, politically independent enough, has the cajones, and could possible have a vested interest? Israel, of course.
Think about it: They are surrounded by hostile regimes who are friendly with or supported by the Soviets. They are in a particularly stressful period of political instability, having just recently fought the 1967 War. In a best case scenario, a Sino-Soviet war would horrendously scar both countries and cause the Soviets to severely cut back on material support, shifting the balance of power to Israel's favor in the long term. And, it would leave the Chinese with out the ability to betray the Israelis in some fashion, if they achieved victory. Win-win.
The one snag in this is the US, but, the logic is simple: China is, at this point, the lesser of the two threats and will be far less of one after a war. Greater still are the potential opportunities it opens up, like the liberation of Eastern Europe and the re-unification of Germany. So, they agree, coordinating with the Israelis to the play the two countries off each other, as the US cooperates with the Soviet Union.
So, the Israelis gather ten volunteers from the Sayeret Matkal, tasked with training thirty men a piece. Mao chooses three hundred guerrilla veterans.
The Chinese cross through NK in a staggered schedule of groups of ten boarding unmarked ships, heading for Okinawa. They are supplied with SK uniforms, arrive in Okinawa, and then board military transports to Alaska, which will be the chosen meeting site between the Sayeret Matkal advisors and the Chinese. Officially, with the cooperation of the SK government (the US alluded to potential re-unification), the Chinese troops are officially SK, with SK going so far as to generate false units and soldiers on paper.
They undergo a year of training, including basic training, officer and NCO training, and then special operations training. The US even by convincing a handful of Inuit WWII US Army Vets to act as instructors the Chinese in arctic warfare (ideal, because they otherwise have little outside contact that could compromise the operation), but otherwise keep the effort at arms length.
Once trained, they go back to China to each train thirty handpicked troops a piece for a year. What's left is are 9,000 elite arctic troops, supplied with Soviet weapons collected from Vietnam, re-furbished, with any unique markings removed to eliminate any chance of tracing them.
Still further, they are supplied with American intelligence, filtered through the Mossad and NK intelligence, gathered from satellite photos, giving them the locations of key junctures in the trans-Siberian rail system, nuclear sites, and classified facilities, with detailed lay outs.
So, 28 months after the operation began, against the backdrop of massing troops and ever more brutal border skirmishes, 1,500 six-man teams cross the border and begin a six month process of laying explosives and weapons caches, in a Tet Offensive-style preemptive strike. Simultaneously, with in a few hours of each other, the teams launch a final strike.
The rail system is shattered. Missile silos become inoperative. Ammo and fuel dumps go up in fireballs. Patrols disappear. Twelve hours later, the PLA makes a strategic bum rush across the border...
So, any comments?
Most predictions hinge on China's use of massed numbers in battle, but through the 1930s and WWII, if every one remembers, the Communists were extensively involved in guerilla warfare. Mao was no Napoleon, but he had commanded troops and was smart enough to see the lop-sidedness in training, equipment, and preparation. Even with massed numbers, it is still going to be a slaughter, which leaves them with nothing close to a guarantee of victory. Preemptive guerrilla warfare can level the playing field; forward-deploying commando teams across the border for sabotage and striking at targets of opportunity, particularly the trans-Siberian rail system, could paralyze a Soviet advance and make the massed waves of Chinese a withering force.
Of course the Russians possess Spetsnaz and the home turf advantage, particularly in the area of arctic warfare. The Chinese need outside help.
Of course, there aren't many nations that they can turn to that would help them like that. What nation is experienced enough, politically independent enough, has the cajones, and could possible have a vested interest? Israel, of course.
Think about it: They are surrounded by hostile regimes who are friendly with or supported by the Soviets. They are in a particularly stressful period of political instability, having just recently fought the 1967 War. In a best case scenario, a Sino-Soviet war would horrendously scar both countries and cause the Soviets to severely cut back on material support, shifting the balance of power to Israel's favor in the long term. And, it would leave the Chinese with out the ability to betray the Israelis in some fashion, if they achieved victory. Win-win.
The one snag in this is the US, but, the logic is simple: China is, at this point, the lesser of the two threats and will be far less of one after a war. Greater still are the potential opportunities it opens up, like the liberation of Eastern Europe and the re-unification of Germany. So, they agree, coordinating with the Israelis to the play the two countries off each other, as the US cooperates with the Soviet Union.
So, the Israelis gather ten volunteers from the Sayeret Matkal, tasked with training thirty men a piece. Mao chooses three hundred guerrilla veterans.
The Chinese cross through NK in a staggered schedule of groups of ten boarding unmarked ships, heading for Okinawa. They are supplied with SK uniforms, arrive in Okinawa, and then board military transports to Alaska, which will be the chosen meeting site between the Sayeret Matkal advisors and the Chinese. Officially, with the cooperation of the SK government (the US alluded to potential re-unification), the Chinese troops are officially SK, with SK going so far as to generate false units and soldiers on paper.
They undergo a year of training, including basic training, officer and NCO training, and then special operations training. The US even by convincing a handful of Inuit WWII US Army Vets to act as instructors the Chinese in arctic warfare (ideal, because they otherwise have little outside contact that could compromise the operation), but otherwise keep the effort at arms length.
Once trained, they go back to China to each train thirty handpicked troops a piece for a year. What's left is are 9,000 elite arctic troops, supplied with Soviet weapons collected from Vietnam, re-furbished, with any unique markings removed to eliminate any chance of tracing them.
Still further, they are supplied with American intelligence, filtered through the Mossad and NK intelligence, gathered from satellite photos, giving them the locations of key junctures in the trans-Siberian rail system, nuclear sites, and classified facilities, with detailed lay outs.
So, 28 months after the operation began, against the backdrop of massing troops and ever more brutal border skirmishes, 1,500 six-man teams cross the border and begin a six month process of laying explosives and weapons caches, in a Tet Offensive-style preemptive strike. Simultaneously, with in a few hours of each other, the teams launch a final strike.
The rail system is shattered. Missile silos become inoperative. Ammo and fuel dumps go up in fireballs. Patrols disappear. Twelve hours later, the PLA makes a strategic bum rush across the border...
So, any comments?