Chavez wins the referendum in 2007

[Jan Gronvik]

What if president Hugo Chavez had won the referendum on the constitution in 2007? What would the effects have been on Venezuela?

 

[ZeldaOwner]

What a great scenario.

Chavez would have essentially a throne-for-life from Caracas. This would free him up to use his political capital to extend the influence of his Bolivarian Revolution further than the inroads he already made in Latin America. He'd have the ability to deflect criticism from home regarding Venezuela's inflation and shoddy economy -- there's no way he could be deposed aside from a coup, and the failed coup earlier in the decade showed that he knows how to maintain a grip on his power.

I'd imagine that, in the current Brazilian election, there would be a far left-wing candidate who could replace Lula. I'd also imagine that the far-left of Mexico could also gain strength, placing a Chavez-allied administration directly south of the US border.

 

[Jan Gronvik]

Proposed changes included:

• abolish presidential term limits, allowing for indefinite re-election of the president (not allowed for any other political post),
• expand social security benefits to workers in the informal economy,
• end the autonomy of the central bank, giving control to the president, and place the president in charge of administering the country's international reserves,
• prohibit large land estates, while "allowing the state to provisionally occupy property slated for expropriation before a court has ruled",
• reorganize the country's administrative districts and allow the president to control elected state governors and mayors by an unelected “popular power” dependent on the presidency,
• reduce the maximum working week from 44 to 36 hours and reduce the workday from eight to six hours,
• lower the voting age from 18 to 16,
• increase the presidential term from six to seven years,
• allow the president to declare an unlimited state of emergency,
• prohibit foreign funding for political associations.
• allow public funding for political associations.
• ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.
• change the name of Caracas to "Bolivar's Cradle and Queen of the Guaraira Repano" (La Cuna de Bolivar y Reina del Guaraira Repano)
• prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and health.
• establish adequate housing as a right for all Venezuelans.
• create a social security fund for Venezuelans who are self-employed or employed in the informal sector.
• mandate that all public education, up to and including university, be free of charge.
• require the penitentiary system to orient its work towards the full rehabilitation of prisoners and to respect their human rights during incarceration.

 

[Jan Gronvik]

What a great scenario.
I'd imagine that, in the current Brazilian election, there would be a far left-wing candidate who could replace Lula. I'd also imagine that the far-left of Mexico could also gain strength, placing a Chavez-allied administration directly south of the US border.

Imagine if a radicalized Mexico and Brazil would join ALBA.
That could really lead to a different political situation in Latin America.

 

[ZeldaOwner]

I just reread this and thought this was worth revisiting.

What if Mexico and Brazil did join ALBA? A far-left country allied with Chavez and a burgeoning regional power as the same?