Challenge: Irish Labour as major party.

[Turquoise Blue]

We all know what Irish Labour is now...

However, the challenge for this is to make Irish Labour rise to a major party, displacing either Fianna Fáil or Cumann na nGaedheal/Fine Gael.

Don't say they have done it in 2011, I clearly want a PoD far earlier than that!

 

[deathscompanion1]

Kill de Valera.

That almost always works for any positive change to modern Irish political history.

Not sure how it would work but I guarantee you it would.

I'm only half joking.

 

[sparky42]

Kill de Valera.

That almost always works for any positive change to modern Irish political history.

Not sure how it would work but I guarantee you it would.

I'm only half joking.

Is it wrong that I'm laughing my arse off at that.( and more than half agreeing)

In my opinion there's many issues against labour bring a dominate party and even more against displacing either of the two Civil War parties. Pre Independence you have only a limited urban/industrialised area that which would be the traditional Labour areas.

Not standing in the 1918 election didn't help matters either, there's also the catholic church influence and the centralist nature of the Irish voters.

And finally the Tribal loyalty of the Irish Voter, of the 3 big parties Labour is always the one that has the least amount of support.

 

[deathscompanion1]

Is it wrong that I'm laughing my arse off at that.( and more than half agreeing)

In my opinion there's many issues against labour bring a dominate party and even more against displacing either of the two Civil War parties. Pre Independence you have only a limited urban/industrialised area that which would be the traditional Labour areas.

Not standing in the 1918 election didn't help matters either, there's also the catholic church influence and the centralist nature of the Irish voters.

And finally the Tribal loyalty of the Irish Voter, of the 3 big parties Labour is always the one that has the least amount of support.

Not at all.

To think I used to admire that man.

Ireland doesn't really seem to suit a strong labour movement at the time that the main parties were cementing themselves.

Actually come to think of it. de Valera was pretty much the party which lead to the pretty much two party domination while he was alive... perhaps killing him would split Irish politics in more directions than pro and anti de Valera.

 

[sparky42]

Not at all.

To think I used to admire that man.

Ireland doesn't really seem to suit a strong labour movement at the time that the main parties were cementing themselves.

Actually come to think of it. de Valera was pretty much the party which lead to the pretty much two party domination while he was alive... perhaps killing him would split Irish politics in more directions than pro and anti de Valera.

The echos of the Civil war (which most likely would have happened even without him) are still to strong. I know area in the West where the two sides are still virtually unchanged since the 20's. That's the problem once you get a minor right and minor left divide between FG and FF or whatever they are called.

 

[frlmerrin]

Connolly not slain as a terrorist by British for leading Easter rising OR
Larkin does not offski to the USA after the great lockout OR
Larkin and O'Brien don't have a mutual hissy fit and split the party OR
Ireland grants Trotsky asylum and he becomes a driving figure in the Labour party.

 

[sparky42]

Connolly not slain as a terrorist by British for leading Easter rising OR
Larkin does not offski to the USA after the great lockout OR
Larkin and O'Brien don't have a mutual hissy fit and split the party OR
Ireland grants Trotsky asylum and he becomes a driving figure in the Labour party.

None of which would grow the party to supplant the children of SF. The results of the elections would show that.

 

[theirishdreamer]

yeah

If anything killing Larkin might be the best bet, around the time of the Lockout. He did more harm than good for Labour in the 20's than anything else, get him as socialist marytr or get Labour involved in the War of Independence.
But realistically your not going to get a socialist party dominant in Ireland in the 1920's - 1950's.

 

[frlmerrin]

None of which would grow the party to supplant the children of SF. The results of the elections would show that.

ALL of which would grow the party to epic proportions. However, rather than turn this into a simple statement of opposing opinions why don't you explain your reasoning.

Obviously Connolly surviving and banged up for a few years give us our (even greater than he is in OTL) Socialist hero and you can see the ICA becoming a larger organisation than it was in OTL large enough to moderate or negate the worst excesses of the Treaty war in the urban area.

Larkin staying in Ireland after the Lockout potentially gives the Easter rising a far greater Socialist political input and you could even see a situation where the dumb arsed nationalist blood sacrificial lambs get cast as Socialist heros just as the ICA were cast as nationalist for most of C20 'Connolly and hearts and shamrocks and so on' especially if Larkin stays on the side lines egging them on rather than being directly involved.

The benefits of no split in the party are obvious.

Uncle Leon getting involved in Socialist/Labour politics in Ireland is just sooo full of potential you just have to decide where you want it to go.

Your turn.

 

[frlmerrin]

I like the idea of killing Larkin it might be a route for feeding IWW/Socialist money from the USA to Ireland but he really needs to kick the bucket back in Ireland between 1916 and 18 for that to work. If we just want him dead any time up to well 1930 would do.

 

[Pangur]

The simple version of it is that there is not a hope in Hades unless you can create

1: A far larger industrial base that covers all the large cities and towns
2: No Unionist movement or at least make it of no significance

With out the above the political space won't exist for the large Labour party in Ireland.

 

[theirishdreamer]

basically

Pangur's essentially correct - you can create a situation where a party named "Labour" are politically dominant. To do that though itd have to shed the very things that makes it socialist.

 

[SlideAway]

Would a 2010 POD work?

If Irish Labour sat out the government, and instead allowed Fine Gael to govern as a minority government (one likely getting support for their program externally from Fianna Faìl and Labour on various bills), they'd be the official opposition. Might that have been enough for them to eclipse Fianna and become the main opposition?

 

[sparky42]

If Irish Labour sat out the government, and instead allowed Fine Gael to govern as a minority government (one likely getting support for their program externally from Fianna Faìl and Labour on various bills), they'd be the official opposition. Might that have been enough for them to eclipse Fianna and become the main opposition?

I don't see them doing that given the situation that Ireland was/is in by the 2011 general election. The potential risk of political instability of a minority FG trying to continue with the needed adjustments would be in the minds of the labour leadership.

The day Cowen had to admit to the IMF bailout was the most solemn behaviour of the dail in my knowledge and showed the need for stability for the government.

Potentially if you had FG wining enough seats to be a majority government ( with a slim margin) then I could see labour being the official opposition but that's hard as the bounce was pretty maxed out by FG in that election

 

[Enigmajones]

The only reason I cant see the Labour party gaining more power is that Fianna Fail was essentially the party of the Republican left, which is obviously a bit more friendly to the church, then your average leftist movement would generally be. Also, Ireland has always been a very conservative country, and urbanization is not that common, given the small number of coastal commerce centers, which have always been a big base for the Labour movements.

I also dont think killing Dev would have done a thing to affect Labour at all. In fact, without Dev, the Republican Left might actually get a leftist agenda representing them.

 

[Pangur]

Not so sure

The labour party in Ireland don't have any where near a big enough a natural base of support and equally you cant underestimate the effect of the Civil War. The RC are a best a marginal reason for them being a minor party. The then loose yet again in the modern era by being associated with the past.

 

[BELFAST]

Ideology in politics is not popular in Ireland.
Most parties are do not rock the boat / populists parties.
Politics in Ireland is about personalties more than Ideology right or left wing.
there were too many farmers and other land owners in Ireland for a socialist party to become popular in Ireland.
Politicians in Ireland win election by building person votes. This is done by running
TD - Clinics

Constituents go there to speak with their TD or local representative, who can raise their questions or concerns in the Oireachtas or at national level (not all correspondence has to happen within the Oireachtas chamber, of course)

There is also a perception, which is not always justified, that the politician holds sway with a Government department, or a local government body, and may make a more effective representation on behalf of the constituent than the constituent himself.

In some cases, TDs are only too happy to encourage constituents, whom they know have specific entitlements, to let the TD intervene when of course if the constituent had merely go into the relevant body himself or herself, they could have secured their own entitlements. The amount of times that pretty bog standard social welfare or community welfare claims are raised whilst out canvassing is pretty significant, and politicians do take advantage of this.

Emigration in Ireland was also a big factor. A lot of the young people who could have driven change in politics on the right or left had emigrated for work, leave people in the country who saw no need to change things.

 

[Pangur]

Ideology in politics is not popular in Ireland.
Most parties are do not rock the boat / populists parties.
Politics in Ireland is about personalties more than Ideology right or left wing.
there were too many farmers and other land owners in Ireland for a socialist party to become popular in Ireland.
Politicians in Ireland win election by building person votes. This is done by running
TD - Clinics


Emigration in Ireland was also a big factor. A lot of the young people who could have driven change in politics on the right or left had emigrated for work, leave people in the country who saw no need to change things.

These are all the very most important points for people to remember when it comes to Irish politics

 

[Enigmajones]

These are all the very most important points for people to remember when it comes to Irish politics

Yeah, at the end of the day Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have only been split on a few issues.