AHCWI: Make Peru A Great Power

Peru is a relatively small player in the world today. Given the Amazon to the east. The Andes to the south, and fairly powerful nations surrounding it, geographically, Peru isn't exactly in the best spot. But given that the Inca Empire once held what could conservatively be called a large part of South America. it is clear a great power can arise in the region. Your goal is for Peru to be a major geopolitical force in the Americas and in the outer world after independence from spain
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The Incas vs Peru
 
Probably best from start is find way keep Peru and Bolivia united and keep the country politically stable.
 
Keep Peru and Bolivia together, then they can hold onto the southern Pacific coast ie Arica (which in OTL was lost to Chile).

Beat up Chile and take their rare minerals.
 
I know there is a sizable minority of Japanese ancestry in Peru. Along with expanding borders, could we get even more Japanese and also many Chinese and Koreans to come? If American hostility in the mid to late 1800s can be coupled with Peruvian incentives we could get a good number of industrious people who can help to develop it. Who are some notable Asian Americans in the late eighteen hundreds and early 1900s who could go to Peru instead?
 
Peru needs to end the power of the landowning oligarchical elite and instead create an industrial society where wealth is shared more evenly in the population.

So how about a world where after independence, Peru avoids most of it's political coups and pointless wars with neighbours. No instability or wars is kinda ASB for the time and region, but let's say they're more limited.

So let's say by 1850 an Agricultural Society is created which purposefully works to modernise agriculture in Peru. This is done by sending a few dozen people to Europe a year while also experimenting with indigenous farming methods to increase yields. The Mezzandria system employed where workers use land, but ideally have more of a partnership with the landlords than a fuedal or semi fuedal system. In parts of Italy this worked well enough. With direct efforts from the state to modernise agriculture, Peru should do well and experience a population boom.

Meanwhile between 1880 and 1930, have industrialisation occur. This can be focused on 'light industry', mostly the packaging and management of agricultural goods to be shipped to Europe, but it should be there. Also, have a Argentine method take place as the local elites encourage cheap labour through mass immigration from Europe, with some gaining land. In the early 1900s, the local oligarchical rule can be replaced by more democracy based around the major industrial cities and towns. Have this liberal government enact land reform to allow people to buy the land for a set price from the landowners. This, combined with millions of arrivals from Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Russia, China, Japan, Korea and the Philipines, This will eventually shift power to a social democracy which expands workers rights and modernisation.

The problem is, Peru becoming a wealthy social democracy would defy all trends for Latin America and even all of Southern Europe. I think more realistically, Peru could by 2020 have a population of around 55 million and a GDP per capita of around $20,000. However if they remain very pro immigrant like Canada, Australia and New Zealand, by 2020 they could reach 85 million people I think and a GDP per capita of $50,000, similar to Scandinavia. That would make them the world's 4th largest military and they would be Latin America's greatest power, and could have population growth rates of 1.5% yearly. This would be helped by having a series of culturally similar countries nearby for cheap labour.
 
As @Wendell mentioned, a really surefire way to make Peru a major power would be to make it keep its initial massive size:

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With that being said, a Peru with these borders is by no means guaranteed to be extremely powerful (obviously the resources and size it would have ITTL would mean it would be a force to be reckoned with no matter what), as both the Empire of Brazil and Russian Empire in OTL failed to be really influential or major powers due to not possessing very industrialized economies. But if this Peru could keep up with technological developments ITTL, it would have the potential to be a global superpower, especially if nothing akin to the US rises ITTL to compete for control over the New World. It also helps that this Peru would have access to the Atlantic and Pacific as well as control over Panama to connect the two of it felt like it.
 
Peru as in post-independence Peru, or Peru the entity that can claim descent from the Viceroyalty of Peru, or Peru a post-Spanish state centered in what's OTL Peru that happens to share overlapping borders with OTL Peru?

If you want a legitimate Great Power some time during the era of Great Powers(so up until the world is unipolar or bipolar like post-WW2) then I think you have to go back way before independence. Speaking as a Peruvian: OTL Peru's lands at post-independence simply aren't suited for a Great Power IMO, no matter what type of hyper-effective government you set up there. I'm going to highlight a few of the imminent problems that Peru faces at independence between it and being considered a Great Power and this is while also ignoring governance entirely; this is all about the facts on the ground:

* Poor resources for traditional industrial development: no coal of note, steel needs to be imported. Limited resources for electrical power
* Timber resources are sparse outside of the jungles which have notable difficulties for access and transportation
* Land is owned by oligarchs and focused on money crops. Food is not plentiful for most of the populace despite the availability of land for farming, which hampers demographic growth
* Continuing the above, many lands remain underutilized or depopulated; for example the northern Andes have been a shadow of their former selves since the times of Atahualpa and have never recovered their productivity even to today
* No soft power to speak of; Peru went from being the center of Spanish power in South America to losing the ability to govern the vast majority of the old lands of the Inca. Lost Bolivia despite shared sentiments for unification due to mismanagement. Chile broke away despite being demographically dwarfed for most of its history because of an inability to properly govern or appease the locals
* No naval tradition worth speaking of; trade restrictions by the Spanish for most of Peru's history meant that trade between different colonies was controlled by foreign countries

There's two options really, a PoD before the conquest, and a PoD after the conquest. I'm going to tackle a pre-conquest PoD because that's my bread and butter at this point.

I think a better start would be a slightly delayed Spanish conquest of the Inca; instead of arriving the day after the end of the Inca Civil War, they're delayed by several months to the point that Atahualpa has stepped foot into Cusco and brought the Inca nobility in line, dealt with the traitorous vassal states such as the Chachapoya, etc. So come the Spanish, the Inca are able to raise a (relatively) fresh army to face the Spanish and instead of an outright conquest, only a coastal strip is seized and the Inca are effectively reduced to a Spanish tributary as it's deemed unfeasible to overrun the Inca; they're too homogeneous, too unified. Unlike the Aztec the Inca did an extremely good job of crushing dissenters and colonizing their lands with Quechuas. There's no traitorous Cuzcan nobles bitter from the Civil War, no Chachapoya to side with the Spanish. Quito is still 'Incan' but effectively ran by the Spanish conquistadors and later Spanish traders.

Over the coming decades the Inca are turned into a Spanish economic puppet such that while the Sapa Inca is considered untouchable(now that he's converted to Catholicism and all) the Spanish are essentially usurping Inca institutions of governance to suit Spanish interests rather than the entire system being toppled. Think of the end results essentially being the Inca version of the Japanese Shogunate. The (unofficially) Divine Emperor who's all but powerless at the head of a state that's being run by a Spaniard Shogun(the Viceroy of the Inca). No Peru here, as the Inca state isn't formally partitioned and the bureaucracy still nominally runs most everything except for Quito and OTL's Lima/Callao. It's just that the bureaucracy also has a sizable number of Spaniards with disproportionate influence.

Potosi, rather than simply being pumped for silver, is trading the silver for Spanish goods. The Spanish have plenty that the Inca want, and the Inca have plenty that the Spanish want so the trade is profitable and suits the Spanish just fine in the end. To fulfill demand for these trade goods the Spanish aren't just producing goods in Spain, they're producing them in nearby colonies such as Mexico and Colombia too.

I'm not going to go into this more because at this point, I've written five variations of the same idea in the past and they're there for anyone that wants to read them from my post history. Mestizo state at independence that has the Inca's soft power and the legitimacy of 400 years of continuous governance. Tl;dr is that an eventual Great Power arises due to this state keeping relative technological parity with the West and remaining a part of its cultural sphere, while having the demographic weight to shift a lot of trade to the South Atlantic and Southeastern Pacific, making the entire region more prosperous as a collective. Lots of soft power due to having a distinct culture that's been heavily involved with Western intelligentsia and has partaken or even innovated its own artistic and ideological movements. Quechua is a prestige language even if heavily local to OTL's Latin America plus some parts of the Pacific. Eventually developed a decent naval tradition and has a sphere of influence over a decent chunk of Oceania and the western seaboard of the Americas. This state is most definitely NOT Peru however, just ATL analogue that fills the same spot on a map but has a completely different role.

So there's that approach. The other approach is to have PoD after the conquest but before the independence because I'll stand by what I said earlier; Peru at independence couldn't possibly hope to be anything more than a regional power.

So let's imagine ATL Bourbon Reforms that instead of setting up independent Viceroyalties, decided to dissolve the Viceroyalty of Peru from being a top-managed operation to a large number of regional administrative units. These regional administrators all report to the Viceroy of Peru, with Peru being understood to be a supranational term that while yes, applied roughly to the area in the Central Andes where Lima and Cuzco were in, also applied to the entirety of Spanish South America. The Viceroy of Peru is not the Governor of Lima, and is strictly responsible for governing the entirety of the Viceroyalty of Peru as a collective. These administrators send representatives to the Viceroy which act as a cross between a parliament and a cabinet to the Viceroy. Down the line a particularly liberal Viceroy decides to formalize the powers of the governor's representatives into a legislature with limited rights.

Governorships would be centered around singular cities and their surrounding hinterland. For example Peru; you can chop up Peru(bar the jungle provinces) into six or so governoships centered on Lima, Cuzco, Arequipa, Trujillo, Chiclayo, and Piura(you can probably squish the last three into two on some form of division). You can split Ecuador into two governorships centered on Guayaquil and Quito. You can split Bolivia into governorships centered on La Paz, Cochabamba + Oruro, Santa Cruz, Sucre + Potosi, and Tarija, etc. I'm also presuming that this butterflies the Tupac Amaru rebellion, leaving most of the Inca nobility intact.

End goal, you get some degree of familiarity with most of South America being governed by Lima. Now I'm not expecting this to last. I'd expect Colombia + Venezuela, and Buenos Aires + Montevideo to break away. What I would expect however, is for areas like Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, and most of Argentina to stick along post-independence in a federal state of sorts called Peru, assuming decent amounts of competence from the leading independence figures. Chile, Ecuador and Bolivia would be well-entwined with OTL Peru and each other at this point and unlikely to seek to break away barring incredible incompetence and overbearing entitlement from the Peruvians in trying to throw away the established system for a Peruvian-dominated unitary state or something along those lines.

Without the Tupac Amaru rebellion of OTL, then the prestige of many native institutions and families is maintained, and the Inca Empire's legacy is fresher on the minds of many of the leaders of independence. There'd be a soft pressure to conform with the borders of the old Inca Empire with most of its component regions already marginally federalized from pre-independence. There'd also be valid candidates for the more romanticist monarchists to present an Inca claimant should the state become a monarchy, as OTL Argentina considered. Anyways. The long and the short of it is that there'd be a lot of push to keep the whole thing united versus OTL, and the end result would be a state that would dominate South America, have dipped its toes into representative government, and presumably be accustomed and successful in tackling economic problems(OTL's original purpose of the Bourbon Reforms).

As to how most of Argentina goes along for the ride, when your choices are loose federalism from Lima which already exercised a soft touch versus rule from Buenos Aires where it seeks to dominate the state, the choice is pretty straightforward. Sure there's some benefit of hindsight here but I don't think the local notables would be blind to what breaking away with Buenos Aires would result in and what they'd be giving up. Meanwhile, the lack of support for independence in the rest of OTL Argentina might actually cow Buenos Aires into sticking with this ATL Peruvian Confederation. Hell, you could even have individual regions from OTL's countries decide to stick with the Confederation anyways, like perhaps Panama and Andean Colombia in a best-case scenario because they're tied more closely economically to the rest of Latin America.

End result, 'Peru' ends up looking like the Spanish equivalent of Brazil with few of the individual colonies going their own way and has the demographic base, internal stability, and (most) of the natural resources to succeed. Is it not really Peru as outlined by the OP? Yep. But I'll stand on this hill, Peru at independence, even united with Bolivia, couldn't hope to be more than a regional power.
 
What I find interesting is that an article for population estimates I saw online a while back claimed that Peru had a population of 2.5 million in 1825. Around that time, Colombia had a population of 2.5 million, though was comprised of what is modern-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. Flash forward to 1939, and a Wiki page (I know not the best source) for population estimates worldwide has Colombia at almost 9 million and the other former countries added formed a population of about 15-16 million, while Peru was just at 6.5 million and even if you factor in the Peru-Bolivia union, the population is still smaller. Now Colombia currently has a population of 51 million and Peru is around 32 million.

I wonder what lead to this decline? Peru was arguably the "star" of Hispanic South America (correct me if I'm wrong), and as mentioned, had a possible total population equal to Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama around the time of its independence! Were neighboring countries like Colombia/Venezuela/Argentina/Brazil/etc just far more attractive to immigrants from Europe and even Asia? The vast majority of Peruvians (around 7/8) are either Mestizos or Amerindian, with similar numbers in neighboring countries Ecuador and Bolivia.

Peru will need much more better land than what it has right now, perhaps find a way to hold on to Bolivia and try to get parts of Argentina and Chile, maybe even hold on to Ecuador?
I know there is a sizable minority of Japanese ancestry in Peru. Along with expanding borders, could we get even more Japanese and also many Chinese and Koreans to come? If American hostility in the mid to late 1800s can be coupled with Peruvian incentives we could get a good number of industrious people who can help to develop it. Who are some notable Asian Americans in the late eighteen hundreds and early 1900s who could go to Peru instead?
Yep. The two biggest Asian backgrounds in Peru are Chinese and Japanese .

I know my answers a few months late, but whatever. Many usually associate "Asian" with East Asians, but West Asians/Levantine people are still in "Asia" and unlike neighboring Brazil, Colombia, Chile or even farther away Mexico and Venezuela, I don't think Peru has a sizable Arab/West Asian population. Perhaps there could be a way to get many of the Levantine/West Asians (Lebanese/Syrians/Palestinains/etc for example) to go to Peru and not Brazil/Colombia/Chile/etc.
 
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What I find interesting is that an article for population estimates I saw online a while back claimed that Peru had a population of 2.5 million in 1825. Around that time, Colombia had a population of 2.5 million, though was comprised of what is modern-day Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama. Flash forward to 1939, and a Wiki page (I know not the best source) for population estimates worldwide has Colombia at almost 9 million and the other former countries added formed a population of about 15-16 million, while Peru was just at 6.5 million and even if you factor in the Peru-Bolivia union, the population is still smaller. Now Colombia currently has a population of 51 million and Peru is around 32 million.

I wonder what lead to this decline? Peru was arguably the "star" of Hispanic South America (correct me if I'm wrong), and as mentioned, had a possible total population equal to Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador and Panama around the time of its independence! Were neighboring countries like Colombia/Venezuela/Argentina/Brazil/etc just far more attractive to immigrants from Europe and even Asia? The vast majority of Peruvians (around 7/8) are either Mestizos or Amerindian, with similar numbers in neighboring countries Ecuador and Bolivia.

Peru will need much more better land than what it has right now, perhaps find a way to hold on to Bolivia and try to get parts of Argentina and Chile, maybe even hold on to Ecuador?

Yep. The two biggest Asian backgrounds in Peru are Chinese and Japanese .

I know my answers a few months late, but whatever. Many usually associate "Asian" with East Asians, but West Asians/Levantine people are still in "Asia" and unlike neighboring Brazil, Colombia, Chile or even farther away Mexico and Venezuela, I don't think Peru has a sizable Arab/West Asian population. Perhaps there could be a way to get many of the Levantine/West Asians (Lebanese/Syrians/Palestinains/etc for example) to go to Peru and not Brazil/Colombia/Chile/etc.

Peru(and Bolivia) were the demographic heavyweights of Spanish South America for most of the colonial period but its lands were underdeveloped agriculturally and its populace centered on mining for Spanish overlords; skewing to mineral extraction over agriculture naturally led to the less rich but more agriculturally inclined colonies to slowly match it demographically. Pre-Spanish agriculture never recovered, basically, and the Quechua population didn't do as much growing as it could have.

As for immigration, Peru wasn't unattractive per se and it saw regular immigration, just not to the same extent as the biggest immigration magnets in the New World. But it's geography also makes it a less economical destination when it's cheaper to sail just about anywhere else in the New World. Peru has to be more economically attractive than its peers to leverage comparable immigration by pure geography alone.

ATL colonization/governance to resolve this demographic mismatch is IMO the best way to fix this early; Great Power Peru seems unfeasible to me unless it leverages the native Quechua populace to provide the demographics needed to hang as a Great Power. Short of kneecapping the United States into a nativist, fragmented set of banana republics and OTL's Latin American instability being dialed up everywhere sans Peru, I don't see a route to Peruvian Great Power status that's founded on a criollo state.

West/South Asian immigration has a similar issue to immigration in general to Peru; it's difficult as hell to get people there versus all other possible options and I don't see that being enough to build a Great Power out of what existed at independence.

I'll double down on PODs centered on administration and demographics being the key element here over any sort of change to immigration patterns, geopolitics, or ATL colonial overlords inherently mixing things up. There are a few specific things that could alter OTL's trajectory or make the situation better on the ground:

- Bartolomeo de Las Casas manages to win big on his plans for governance of Spanish America leading to aggressive settlement in the New World drawing from all of the Hapsburg crowns from Austria to Castille and from Holland to Naples. Peru, being one of the two crown jewels and being associated with the most famed one, Potosi, draws the majority of the settlers, reigniting its agricultural sector and placing the heart of the colony square in the central Andes around Potosi where light manufacturing begins to develop thanks to the immigrants to the colony. Centralization along the Altiplano's rim from Potosi to Cuzco begins, and the peripheries(the Pampas, Lima, the Llanos de Moxos, Atacama Desert, etc.) are considered integral parts of the Peru colony due to economic interdependence with these regions feeding the economic core.

-Manilla treasure fleets are tasked with recruiting immigrants for the New World when Christianity faces a severe backlash in East Asia. Religious refugees, economic immigrants, and political exiles use the Spanish to leave East Asia and settle in the New World, primarily Peru, colloquially regarded as the Land of Silver. Demographic boon as they exploit Peru's actual over-the-top bonanza of coastal fishing resources earlier.

-As posted above, ATL Bourbon reforms. Say that the British leverage American manpower early to, say, conquer Cuba in a big shock to the Spanish. The Spanish attempt to mobilize their empire but fall flat on their face, leading to reforms centered around maximizing the advantages of their massive empire in terms of manpower and military might in the New World so land reform comes much earlier.
 
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