AHC: Third Spanish Republic

Kibbutznik · Feb 23, 2018

The return of democracy to Spain, like many events in the latter 20th century, surprisingly peaceful considering the potential chaos that could have ensued following Franco's death.

The challenge that stands before you now is to determine how the Francoist regime can be replaced not by a constitutional monarchy, but by a Republic.

Extra points if Catalonia and the Basque regions emerge as sovereign nations.

A cookie if Portugal annexes Galicia, or some other third party becomes involved in the Spanish fracas.

Lalli · Feb 24, 2018

Luis Carrero Blanco is not assassinated by ETA on 1973 and him becomes all-powerful prime minister after Franco's death. Juan Carlos is still king but he is unable restore democracy. Few years later breaks out and Juan Carlos and Blanco are overthrown and third republic is founded.

Independence of Basque Country and Catalonia seems being difficult with any post civil war POD.

Portugal hadn't any intrestes over Galicia long time so this might be impossible. And I doubt that had it even capacity for this.

English Nationalist · Feb 24, 2018

Olivenza could be claimed though I doubt such a claim would be pushed. Unless a war breaks I doubt the Basque region could seperate with Catalonia being less likely. That being said a situation like last year and still ongoing could arise with the Catalans, it all depends on how this new republic behaves.

Kurt_Steiner · Feb 24, 2018

In the internal struggle for the succession, Juan Carlos may loose his position when Franco is persuaded by his wife and his daughter to replace him with his cousin, Alfonso de Borbón y Dampierre, who happened to be married with Franco's granddaughter. So, let's suppose that a Alfonso XIV goes to replace Franco and to keep Francoism into place. It may led to an eventual collapse of the regime and the discredit of the monarchy may led to a Republic.

Catalonia and the Basque Country going independent... I can see no possible way.

Bob Gump · Feb 25, 2018

IMHO, after Franco is dead: The government decides to hold a referendum over monarchy or republic, and republic option wins. I don't see Catalonia and Basque country become independent, even more if a republic is proclaimed. On the other hand, Galicians would rather become an independent nation than join to Portugal.

Kurt_Steiner · Feb 25, 2018

No way. Even without Franco, his generals and followers are not going to accept a referendum that may restore the Republic that they worked so hard to finish. For that reason there was no referendum in Spain in 1978.

Bob Gump · Feb 25, 2018

Kurt_Steiner said:
No way. Even without Franco, his generals and followers are not going to accept a referendum that may restore the Republic that they worked so hard to finish. For that reason there was no referendum in Spain in 1978.

I agree but i was thinking in a military lead republic. Lets say the hardliners don't agree with Juan Carlos or Alfonso and prefer to keep power in their hands, so an anticommie Spanish Republic backed by USA, Pinochet Styles wouldn't be feasible?

Lalli · Feb 25, 2018

They tried military coup on early 1980's and it was total failure. I can't see return of military regime after Franco's death. It is either constitutional monarchy or democratic republic.

Bob Gump · Feb 25, 2018

Lalli said:
They tried military coup on early 1980's and it was total failure. I can't see return of military regime after Franco's death. It is either constitutional monarchy or democratic republic.

The coup failed because the King was oposed to it and the army follow along. Even so, I think that the military republic wouldn't last long and would turn in a democratic republic.

Kurt_Steiner · Feb 26, 2018

Bob Gump said:
I agree but i was thinking in a military lead republic. Lets say the hardliners don't agree with Juan Carlos or Alfonso and prefer to keep power in their hands, so an anticommie Spanish Republic backed by USA, Pinochet Styles wouldn't be feasible?

It would be feasible, but it wouldn't last too long. The strikes and the social turmoil would bring havoc to that regime.

samcster94 · Feb 26, 2018

Bob Gump said:
IMHO, after Franco is dead: The government decides to hold a referendum over monarchy or republic, and republic option wins. I don't see Catalonia and Basque country become independent, even more if a republic is proclaimed. On the other hand, Galicians would rather become an independent nation than join to Portugal.

Their language is too different from Portuguese for that to really work.