As the title says. Make the United States a third-world country with a post-1900 POD, and keep them that way for at the very least 50 years. And not as a result of continuing foreign occupation.
AHC: Make the US permanently a third world country
- Thread starter Alternate History Geek
- Start date
RamscoopRaider
Donor
What definition of third world, the original one (pretty much impossible by definition), the modern one (merely really really difficult), or an ATL one?
You'd have to raise the living standards for a few dozen countries or half a billion people if we grade by the curve.
Worse great depression.
After that... Successful coup'de etat, civil war, unstable & corrupt military dictatorships; occasionally Stalinist policies...
Implausible, but theoretically possible...
You probably underestimate what truly incompetent governments can do.
However, do you consider Latin America to be a part of "third world" ? Because that level of poverty is more easily obtainable than African one
After that... Successful coup'de etat, civil war, unstable & corrupt military dictatorships; occasionally Stalinist policies...
Implausible, but theoretically possible...
You probably underestimate what truly incompetent governments can do.
However, do you consider Latin America to be a part of "third world" ? Because that level of poverty is more easily obtainable than African one
Last edited:
the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts, the Big One hits CA and everything west of the San Andreas Fault falls into the ocean, and a fair sized meteor slams into the Atlantic just off our coast and huge tidal waves scour the port cities. All on the same day.
Would that do it?
Would that do it?
The Anglo-German alliance negotiations succeed following Victoria's death in 1901. OTL, the Kaiser visited London while Victoria was dying, and uncharacteristically impressed the British royal family and political leadership with his behaviour as a loving, dutiful, and supportive grandson. This good will overcame a lot of the existing British resentment towards the Kaiser and helped restart alliance negotiations, which fell through over a combination of a deadlock over fleet ratios and scandal over the Kaiser giving an inflammatory interview to a British newspaper that his Chancellor approved for publication without reading. ITTL, the Chancellor reads the draft interview and vetoes it, and the Kaiser is persuaded that an alliance is worth a smaller fleet.
France and Russia respond by courting an American alliance. They don't outright succeed before *WW1 breaks out, but they generate a fair amount of rapport. America declares war a few months in, on grounds of freedom of the seas and outrage over several incidents during the Anglo-German blockade of France.
Britain and Germany blockade the American coasts and bombard coastal cities. After France is knocked out of the war, they launch a full scale invasion through Canada and Mexico and attempt to capture New York, Boston, and DC through amphibious assault. The landings fail, but ruin the cities in the process. The land invasions succeed enough to force the US to accept a ruinous peace settlement: the Southwest annexed to Mexico; Alaska and the American portion of Rupert's Land annexed to Canada; the Phillipines, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Guam annexed to Germany; and crippling reparations.
Then the dust bowl hits a decade or so earlier than IOTL. Combined with the ruin of war, the disruption of losing the southwest, and the burden of reparations, it leads to a much worse depression than IOTL, featuring hyperinflation and starvation.
Huey Long is elected President in 1928 or 1932, and proceeds to pack the courts, bully Congress, and generally ignore the constitution. The conservative faction in Congress persuades MacArthur to lead a coup, which initially succeeds. Smedley Butler leads a counter-coup, which fails to capture the Capital but succeeds in attracting enough support to lead to a civil war between two rival military governments.
The civil war is settled and a revanchist government winds up in charge (not sure who the best leader for this would be). America re-arms as best it can and declares war on Mexico to recover lost territory, and gets curbstomped when Britain and Germany intervene. The terms imposed on American this time resemble those proposed for Germany in the OTL Morgenthau Plan: partition, systematic and permanent deindustrialization, and the razing of all major industrial cities.
There's a lot of very unlikely steps in this TL, but it's a very difficult AHC. There's a lot of ruin in a nation, especially one as big and institutionally robust as the US.
France and Russia respond by courting an American alliance. They don't outright succeed before *WW1 breaks out, but they generate a fair amount of rapport. America declares war a few months in, on grounds of freedom of the seas and outrage over several incidents during the Anglo-German blockade of France.
Britain and Germany blockade the American coasts and bombard coastal cities. After France is knocked out of the war, they launch a full scale invasion through Canada and Mexico and attempt to capture New York, Boston, and DC through amphibious assault. The landings fail, but ruin the cities in the process. The land invasions succeed enough to force the US to accept a ruinous peace settlement: the Southwest annexed to Mexico; Alaska and the American portion of Rupert's Land annexed to Canada; the Phillipines, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Guam annexed to Germany; and crippling reparations.
Then the dust bowl hits a decade or so earlier than IOTL. Combined with the ruin of war, the disruption of losing the southwest, and the burden of reparations, it leads to a much worse depression than IOTL, featuring hyperinflation and starvation.
Huey Long is elected President in 1928 or 1932, and proceeds to pack the courts, bully Congress, and generally ignore the constitution. The conservative faction in Congress persuades MacArthur to lead a coup, which initially succeeds. Smedley Butler leads a counter-coup, which fails to capture the Capital but succeeds in attracting enough support to lead to a civil war between two rival military governments.
The civil war is settled and a revanchist government winds up in charge (not sure who the best leader for this would be). America re-arms as best it can and declares war on Mexico to recover lost territory, and gets curbstomped when Britain and Germany intervene. The terms imposed on American this time resemble those proposed for Germany in the OTL Morgenthau Plan: partition, systematic and permanent deindustrialization, and the razing of all major industrial cities.
There's a lot of very unlikely steps in this TL, but it's a very difficult AHC. There's a lot of ruin in a nation, especially one as big and institutionally robust as the US.
Last edited:
ManintheField
Banned
The issue there is that a massive land invasion of the US leading to huge loss of territory is essentially impossible anytime after the Civil War. By 1913, it is in rough parity with both in terms of both population and gross output. I'm having trouble finding precise figures, but I believe it beats both put together in steel production, also. The Haber Process has already been invented so whatever early naval advantage the Anglo-Germans enjoy can't be used to prevent gunpowder by cutting off nitrate imports. The USN, while heavily outnumbered initially, could be heavily augmented and relatively quickly.
The issue with AHCs like this is that the US has such absurdly favorable geographic, demographic, technological, and other conditions that it's extremely hard to permanently make Americans third world poor. Everything that can go wrong has to go wrong for an extended period of time. You have write an America-screw that tempts the ASBs to get even close.
The issue with AHCs like this is that the US has such absurdly favorable geographic, demographic, technological, and other conditions that it's extremely hard to permanently make Americans third world poor. Everything that can go wrong has to go wrong for an extended period of time. You have write an America-screw that tempts the ASBs to get even close.
That could work, except for the part about the west coast sliding into the Pacific (that's not how the San Andreas fault operates).
But in these kinds of scenarios, it's more likely that the US will bear much more resemblance to Latin America than to Africa or continental Asia.
Mass immigration results in a dilution of the American national identity i.e. the only thing holding it together is money. Then have the US construct an unaffordable welfare system while at the same time trying to be the world police. Eventually the US dollar looses reserve currency status so that the US government must dramatically cut spending. People used to a cushy life start rioting and the federal government losses all authority as various regions of the country start to break away as the Feds can no longer bribe or threaten then since they don't have any money to pay the military. Basically while all this is going on living standards drop dramatically.
GDP per person in US 1990 dollars
1901
USA
4 464
1933 (Great Depression)
USA
4 777
2008
USA
31 178
2008
Mexico
7 979
2008
Peru
5 388
(data according to prof. Maddison, Groningen University)
If we can froze development at 1930'levels, this will be sufficient.
American GDP actually don't need to be lowered (1932 USA WAS third world nation by 2013 standards); it need to GROW MUCH MORE SLOWLY.
Maybe catastrophes are not needed, but incompetent economic policy are.
OTL Argentina had quite strong economy before Great Depression, but after Depression; low growth rates under Peronist regime...
1901
USA
4 464
1933 (Great Depression)
USA
4 777
2008
USA
31 178
2008
Mexico
7 979
2008
Peru
5 388
(data according to prof. Maddison, Groningen University)
If we can froze development at 1930'levels, this will be sufficient.
American GDP actually don't need to be lowered (1932 USA WAS third world nation by 2013 standards); it need to GROW MUCH MORE SLOWLY.
Maybe catastrophes are not needed, but incompetent economic policy are.
OTL Argentina had quite strong economy before Great Depression, but after Depression; low growth rates under Peronist regime...
Last edited:
-Worse panic of 1901
-Worse panic of 1907 causes total collapse of banking system
-European companies buy out American conglomerates, America becomes economic battleground for European interests
-Socialism rocks the country following brutal repression of miner's strikes and the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory incident, mass elections popularize the idea of Socialism and even Communism
-By 1916 America stays out of World War I for social and political reasons, Eugene V Debs elected president by over 15% margin
-Intelligensia and ultra-wealthy begin moving money out of the country to Europe and South America, European wars result in more migration to South America and southern Africa as America is perceived as unstable and increasingly violent
-Europe fights itself to a standstill with Treaty of Versailles causing Status Quo Antebellum except for German colonies outside of Tanzania and Kamerun going to UK and France
-Europe decides its conglomerates can help pay for reconstruction, new era of dirty politics and class warfare in USA. Prohibition comes into power in the USA
-By 1925 Socialists are in firm control without question, policies of nationalization and welfare spread rapidly as infrastructure develops. Most of the country is electrified by 1929, but USA must take out massive loans on a payback system to pay for it all
-European speculation causes Great Depression which has unexpectedly causes loans to be called in early. Massive failure of commerce across the USA in 1930 causes job loss and anarchy. Robberies and illegal alcohol are daily sightings in most of the country. Police are ineffective or more often bought/paid for. Socialists create state-backed Monopolies to more efficiently manage production and distribution, with predictable effects on quality and innovation.
-National Office of Homeland Security ("Nohos", or derogative "No Homes") set up to tackle problem and given vast authority to "restore order and keep the peace". Its leader J Edgar Hoover becomes one of the most feared and powerful men in history, able to arrest individuals and hold them without trial.
-By 1935 Hoover has broken the backs of the largest mobs in the country and alcohol is legalized again, but civil rights are all but a memory. Suspected "lawbreakers" can be held, beaten, and even robbed at will by the Nohos.
-European warfare to settle the problems not worked out before erupts, but the USA is in no shape to participate as its economy is still fractured. Massive "drafted" labor campaigns are enacted to prop up infrastructure, but with the socialization of industry there are fewer automobiles, trucks, or modern construction equipment to aid in the task. Chain gangs are a common sight especially in the South and Midwest.
-US gains some money from international trade during the war (ends in late 1940s) but not enough to embark on full welfare state agenda. Many people grow up without usable skillsets and turn to crime, those who can try to escape somewhere with opportunity like Mexico, Japan, or Brazil. Only the best and brightest are taken to Europe or the USSR for educational purposes, and even then many are driven to stay by family or "mob job" offers. A Splendid Isolation policy is put into effect with massive tariffs on foreign goods to promote domestic industry/monopolies.
-US continues to be unable to compete internationally as state standardized production of all but the most rudimentary equipment and consumer items leads to continued economic stagnation. Productivity is minimal and public health declines as nutrition/agriculture does the same following the Dust Bowl years, it never truly recovers as few farmers can afford the newer fertilizers or hybrid seeds being used elsewhere.
-Religious organizers begin to rally and challenge the Socialists after a generation of promises without deliveries. They control about 45% of the government by the end of 1950s.
-By the 1960s the US has a population growth rate of 4% per year, an economic growth rate barely noticeable, and an unemployment rate of 10-12%. Average high school education is about equal to OTL 9th grade except in some very religious schools or enclaves of connected citizens. Few people trust Washington and regional economies based on the black market begin to form.
-1970s oil shocks and breakup of state monopolies fares badly as foreign investors scoop up much of the old state assets for pennies on the dollar. End of Splendid Isolation. Manufacturing rises, especially in the South and West, where unions are all but unheard of as people take whatever jobs they can get.
-1980s continue to see American decline but by the end of the decade there are regional factions openly trying to secede and break away from "big (atheist) government" and its oppressive role in daily life. The resulting 6-year civil war sees a much less tolerant coalition government out of Chicago take over but with over 25% of the national manufacturing capacity destroyed and the nation barely able to feed itself. Most of the roads and rails that remain have not seen maintenance in the better part of a decade or two and there is no interstate highway system.
-By 2005 the United States has the highest birth mortality rate and lowest literacy rate of any nation in North America and is among the worst outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Its populace is trapped in the midst of a cruel dictatorship which made the Socialist government of the 1930s seem like libertarians. Immigration is prohibited and the government in power looks to turn inward, for those who do learn from the past are damned to repeat it.
-Worse panic of 1907 causes total collapse of banking system
-European companies buy out American conglomerates, America becomes economic battleground for European interests
-Socialism rocks the country following brutal repression of miner's strikes and the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory incident, mass elections popularize the idea of Socialism and even Communism
-By 1916 America stays out of World War I for social and political reasons, Eugene V Debs elected president by over 15% margin
-Intelligensia and ultra-wealthy begin moving money out of the country to Europe and South America, European wars result in more migration to South America and southern Africa as America is perceived as unstable and increasingly violent
-Europe fights itself to a standstill with Treaty of Versailles causing Status Quo Antebellum except for German colonies outside of Tanzania and Kamerun going to UK and France
-Europe decides its conglomerates can help pay for reconstruction, new era of dirty politics and class warfare in USA. Prohibition comes into power in the USA
-By 1925 Socialists are in firm control without question, policies of nationalization and welfare spread rapidly as infrastructure develops. Most of the country is electrified by 1929, but USA must take out massive loans on a payback system to pay for it all
-European speculation causes Great Depression which has unexpectedly causes loans to be called in early. Massive failure of commerce across the USA in 1930 causes job loss and anarchy. Robberies and illegal alcohol are daily sightings in most of the country. Police are ineffective or more often bought/paid for. Socialists create state-backed Monopolies to more efficiently manage production and distribution, with predictable effects on quality and innovation.
-National Office of Homeland Security ("Nohos", or derogative "No Homes") set up to tackle problem and given vast authority to "restore order and keep the peace". Its leader J Edgar Hoover becomes one of the most feared and powerful men in history, able to arrest individuals and hold them without trial.
-By 1935 Hoover has broken the backs of the largest mobs in the country and alcohol is legalized again, but civil rights are all but a memory. Suspected "lawbreakers" can be held, beaten, and even robbed at will by the Nohos.
-European warfare to settle the problems not worked out before erupts, but the USA is in no shape to participate as its economy is still fractured. Massive "drafted" labor campaigns are enacted to prop up infrastructure, but with the socialization of industry there are fewer automobiles, trucks, or modern construction equipment to aid in the task. Chain gangs are a common sight especially in the South and Midwest.
-US gains some money from international trade during the war (ends in late 1940s) but not enough to embark on full welfare state agenda. Many people grow up without usable skillsets and turn to crime, those who can try to escape somewhere with opportunity like Mexico, Japan, or Brazil. Only the best and brightest are taken to Europe or the USSR for educational purposes, and even then many are driven to stay by family or "mob job" offers. A Splendid Isolation policy is put into effect with massive tariffs on foreign goods to promote domestic industry/monopolies.
-US continues to be unable to compete internationally as state standardized production of all but the most rudimentary equipment and consumer items leads to continued economic stagnation. Productivity is minimal and public health declines as nutrition/agriculture does the same following the Dust Bowl years, it never truly recovers as few farmers can afford the newer fertilizers or hybrid seeds being used elsewhere.
-Religious organizers begin to rally and challenge the Socialists after a generation of promises without deliveries. They control about 45% of the government by the end of 1950s.
-By the 1960s the US has a population growth rate of 4% per year, an economic growth rate barely noticeable, and an unemployment rate of 10-12%. Average high school education is about equal to OTL 9th grade except in some very religious schools or enclaves of connected citizens. Few people trust Washington and regional economies based on the black market begin to form.
-1970s oil shocks and breakup of state monopolies fares badly as foreign investors scoop up much of the old state assets for pennies on the dollar. End of Splendid Isolation. Manufacturing rises, especially in the South and West, where unions are all but unheard of as people take whatever jobs they can get.
-1980s continue to see American decline but by the end of the decade there are regional factions openly trying to secede and break away from "big (atheist) government" and its oppressive role in daily life. The resulting 6-year civil war sees a much less tolerant coalition government out of Chicago take over but with over 25% of the national manufacturing capacity destroyed and the nation barely able to feed itself. Most of the roads and rails that remain have not seen maintenance in the better part of a decade or two and there is no interstate highway system.
-By 2005 the United States has the highest birth mortality rate and lowest literacy rate of any nation in North America and is among the worst outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Its populace is trapped in the midst of a cruel dictatorship which made the Socialist government of the 1930s seem like libertarians. Immigration is prohibited and the government in power looks to turn inward, for those who do learn from the past are damned to repeat it.
Last edited:
ManintheField
Banned
You can't quote figures from the trough of the Great Depression and compare them to anything else. GDP per capita began recovering IMMEDIATELY after that and little wonder: The US was immensely capital rich by this point and declining GDP was a problem of utilization, not accumulation.
Argentina is not a third world country. It has a GDP per capita comparable to a country like Hungary. It just not as wealthy as the US, which is absurdly wealthy.
Anyway, 80 years of policy driven stagnation is kind of what I mean when I say 'everything that can go wrong does go wrong, for an extended period of time'. Even then you probably won't end up with a third world United States.
Argentina is not a third world country. It has a GDP per capita comparable to a country like Hungary. It just not as wealthy as the US, which is absurdly wealthy.
Anyway, 80 years of policy driven stagnation is kind of what I mean when I say 'everything that can go wrong does go wrong, for an extended period of time'. Even then you probably won't end up with a third world United States.
Comments like this start flame wars. Just don't bring up stuff like this, the mods might mistake it for trolling.
Back to the OP. I'm going to be honest, over such a short period for a nation to fall into a third world status, you are probably going to need to start earlier than the great depression. It would take so much going wrong for the US to stagnate this much and I think it would divide and break up into various other nations before reaching such a point. It's almost too big to fail. Would a plague or something work? I mean the other obvious answer is nuclear war but I'm guessing that's not what you had in mind.
Last edited: