AHC: Independent Mesoamerican native state survives to the present day

[SunKing105]

Whoever survives this period of colonialism and conquest, it ain't the Aztecs. They were more of a rickety tributary empire than anything, they might defeat Cortes, but they can't hold off the Spanish forever, as seems to be the consensus on the forum. Others however, seem to have a better chance. The Tarascans perhaps, or the Maya states in the Peten basin, which in OTL held out until 1697. Heck, even the Miskito count. With any POD you please, have an independent Mesoamerican state survive and be fully sovereign over their territory by the present day. Do this without using a domestication or agricultural POD, or any POD that seriously alters the society, structure, and demographics of the Pre-Columbian Americas.

EDIT: I probably should've clarified. What I mean by Mesoamerica is the area including modern-day Mexico and Central America. It does not include South America at all. And bonus points if it's an unbroken line from Pre-Columbian times to today

 

[Analytical Engine]

If the Miskito count, then either (A) the US do not demand that the UK end its protectorate over the Mosquito Coast, or (B) the UK refuses to accept this demand.

Decolonisation results in an independent Miskito nation.

Or does the state have to avoid any form of colonisation (including protectorate status) entirely?

 

[Miguel Lanius]

The Inca are the best chance, Pizarro came right after they finished a civil war and they kinda bungled it. It could have ended very very badly for the Spanish.

 

[SunKing105]

If the Miskito count, then either (A) the US do not demand that the UK end its protectorate over the Mosquito Coast, or (B) the UK refuses to accept this demand.

Decolonisation results in an independent Miskito nation.

Or does the state have to avoid any form of colonisation (including protectorate status) entirely?

The surviving polity only needs to be independent and sovereign over it's nation state in the present day.

 

[SunKing105]

The Inca are the best chance, Pizarro came right after they finished a civil war and they kinda bungled it. It could have ended very very badly for the Spanish.

I said Mesoamerican. The Inca are not from Mesoamerica, they are from the Andes.

 

[Analytical Engine]

The surviving polity only needs to be independent and sovereign over it's nation state in the present day.

How about a breakaway Maya state in Quintana Roo?

Chan Santa Cruz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Would a Bolivia-style explicitly plurinational state work?

Alternatively, would some kind of Mesoamerican cultural revival breakaway state in southern Mexico, or a Zapotec-dominated (or Zapotec/Mixtec-dominated) independent Oaxaca, be ok?

 

[SunKing105]

How about a breakaway Maya state in Quintana Roo?

Chan Santa Cruz - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Would a Bolivia-style explicitly plurinational state work?

Alternatively, would some kind of Mesoamerican cultural revival breakaway state in southern Mexico, or a Zapotec-dominated (or Zapotec/Mixtec-dominated) independent Oaxaca, be ok?

Sure, those options would work, though I am looking for an explicitly native-dominated state.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Sure, those options would work, though I am looking for an explicitly native-dominated state.

IDK how likely this is, but maybe the Spaniards go "ah, screw it" and decide outright conquering the Maya to be not worth the effort? Eventually, the Maya form their own state, which is a de jure Spanish protectorate.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

I said Mesoamerican. The Inca are not from Mesoamerica, they are from the Andes.

Oh right, sorry, I think my brain just saw "native state" and went there.

 

[FleetMac]

I'm not sure how plausible this would be, but besides the aforementioned Mayan/Miskito/Tarascan* options I can't help but also think of Oaxaca as a non-conquered tributary of Spain that lasts till present day. The Isthmus of Tehuantepec is pretty isolated and laden with some formidable terrain, and while the Mixe rebellion petered out by the 1570s a lot of that was due to the other peoples of Oaxaca opting to voluntarily pay tribute to Spain (which post-epidemics left them primed for direct control, rather than dependency-status). A particularly doltish initial overture by the Spaniards, or a more convincing local demagogue, might allow for a different status that might survive to contemporary times.

 

[pa_dutch]

If it isn't necessary for the state to be directly continuous with a Pre-Columbian entity, than the easiest answer is the Maya Cruzob Free State of Chan Santa Cruz, bolstered and supported by the British. A weak and balkanized Mexico with an independent Yucatan Republic probably helps out a lot.

The Miskito Kingdom is easy, too, being both culturally Native American and geographically Mesoamerican, although the natives are not actually from Mesoamerica but transplants from the Caribbean.

Maybe if the Tlaxcalans play their cards right, they might be able to work out protectorate status with Spain somewhat like Bhutan or Tonga did with the British Empire and end up as an independent enclave - A Mesoamerican equivalent to eSwatini, Lesotho, Bhutan, San Marino, Vatican City, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Luxembourg, Monaco, etc.

The last option is to have the independence period play out differently - Instead of embracing mestizaje, Mexico adopts Nahuatl and indigenous heritage as its post-independence national identity, with mestizos remaining a minority or even being re-assimilated into a mainstream, indigenous-oriented "Mexican" nationality. Perhaps the break-up from Spain is a bit messier and Mexican nationalists begin to actively reject Spanish language as a vestige of Spanish colonialism. Indigenous languages were dominant in Mexico as late as 1820 (spoken by 60% of the population) - This probably included a large number of distinct languages from various families, but no doubt Nahuatl was the largest.

This last idea isn't without precedent - Nahuatl was actually promoted by the Spanish monarchy in the 16th and 17th Centuries, and the promotion of Guarani in Paraguay has made that the dominant language there to this day. Bonus points if Central American countries also embrace Nahuatl or a Mayan language.

 

[Vinization]

Could the Tarascan State survive? From what little I've read about them, they were more centralized than the Aztecs, and the border they shared was fortified, which should help slow the spread of European diseases for a while. Thing is, Cortez would likely have to fail at first, while the Triple Alliance collapses thanks to famine and smallpox.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Could the Tarascan State survive? From what little I've read about them, they were more centralized than the Aztecs, and the border they shared was fortified, which should help slow the spread of European diseases for a while. Thing is, Cortez would likely have to fail at first, while the Triple Alliance collapses thanks to famine and smallpox.

Maybe some Jesuits manage to convert the Tarascan ruling class to Catholicism early on? IDK how realistic that is, though.

 

[Vinization]

Maybe some Jesuits manage to convert the Tarascan ruling class to Catholicism early on? IDK how realistic that is, though.

I don't know if that would be enough. Some overambitious a-hole might say they're false converts and conquer the place in search of more gold. My idea would be for the Aztecs to defeat Cortez at the Noche Triste, since by then the Spaniards had reached Tenochtitlan and their existance (as well as their diseases) was undeniable.

 

[FleetMac]

SNIPPAGE

The last option is to have the independence period play out differently - Instead of embracing mestizaje, Mexico adopts Nahuatl and indigenous heritage as its post-independence national identity, with mestizos remaining a minority or even being re-assimilated into a mainstream, indigenous-oriented "Mexican" nationality. Perhaps the break-up from Spain is a bit messier and Mexican nationalists begin to actively reject Spanish language as a vestige of Spanish colonialism. Indigenous languages were dominant in Mexico as late as 1820 (spoken by 60% of the population) - This probably included a large number of distinct languages from various families, but no doubt Nahuatl was the largest.

This last idea isn't without precedent - Nahuatl was actually promoted by the Spanish monarchy in the 16th and 17th Centuries, and the promotion of Guarani in Paraguay has made that the dominant language there to this day. Bonus points if Central American countries also embrace Nahuatl or a Mayan language.

Emphasis mine; in addition to the points made here, ISTR studies over the last decade or so pointing out that many (if not most, again I'm paraphrasing) Mexicans who self-identify as mestizo actually aren't, ethnically speaking, but rather almost-entirely-Native American in genetic makeup whose ancestors had consistently Hispanized for multiple generations. Thus, even if Spanish wasn't pushed as the new tongue of the land and/or obliging Indigenous Mexicans to Hispanize*, a different line of thought during the period of romantic nationalism could see a pre-Columbian identity adopted as a cornerstone of national pride.

*For example, maybe Chucky the Second (a notoriously sickly and POD-vulnerable dude, BTW) doesn't get around to displacing Nahuatl, which since Phillip II's rule was pushed as a prestige tongue in New Spain...hell, one need only take a look at modern Nahuatl's spelling to see that its orthography is heavily Spanish-influenced, due to its use as a language of administration and court from 1570 to 1696.

 

[SunKing105]

Could the Tarascan State survive? From what little I've read about them, they were more centralized than the Aztecs, and the border they shared was fortified, which should help slow the spread of European diseases for a while. Thing is, Cortez would likely have to fail at first, while the Triple Alliance collapses thanks to famine and smallpox.

Alternatively, the Tarascans capture Tenochtitlan and break up the Aztec empire, and the Spanish will have to go through a bunch of Altepetls just to reach them. I'm not sure how advanced Mesoamerican siege tech was, and Tenochtitlan is on an island in a lake, but that would disintegrate the Aztecs pretty considerably and lead to a different political landscape in Mesoamerica, allowing for a native state to possibly survive or reemerge.

 

[Hawkeye]

Maybe instead of swearing fealty to the Spanish crown, the Conquistadors decide to break away and govern Mesoamerica as an independent empire rather then a colony? From what I understand, they didn't change how the Aztecs ruled by much except for putting themselves at the top of the pyramid.

 

[Vinization]

I don't know if that would be enough. Some overambitious a-hole might say they're false converts and conquer the place in search of more gold. My idea would be for the Aztecs to defeat Cortez at the Noche Triste, since by then the Spaniards had reached Tenochtitlan and their existance (as well as their diseases) was undeniable.

Alternatively, the Tarascans capture Tenochtitlan and break up the Aztec empire, and the Spanish will have to go through a bunch of Altepetls just to reach them. I'm not sure how advanced Mesoamerican siege tech was, and Tenochtitlan is on an island in a lake, but that would disintegrate the Aztecs pretty considerably and lead to a different political landscape in Mesoamerica, allowing for a native state to possibly survive or reemerge.

Could this be enough? Cortez was an outlaw, so maybe official authorities would try to trade with the natives instead of conquering them in one go. Diseases would still be an issue, but maybe without the conquistadors around the death toll could be less severe.

 

[SunKing105]

Maybe instead of swearing fealty to the Spanish crown, the Conquistadors decide to break away and govern Mesoamerica as an independent empire rather then a colony? From what I understand, they didn't change how the Aztecs ruled by much except for putting themselves at the top of the pyramid.

That could work, but Cortes wasn't interested in secession. You would probably need a POD around 1500, involving different characters.

 

[Vinization]

That could work, but Cortes wasn't interested in secession. You would probably need a POD around 1500, involving different characters.

There was a TL made by a now banned poster where Cortes became emperor of the Nahuatl thanks to a series of misunderstandings. I forgot the name, sadly.