AHC: Have the Whites winning the Russian Civil War result in something far worse than the Soviet Union

[Wesley_Lewt]

How is this a challenge?

The state they create is monstrous in a million ways, including full scale anti-jewish genocide, but that isnt what matters.

What matters is they don't rapidly industrialise like the USSR. So when revanchist-militarist Germany - in whatever form it takes in this TL - comes from them, they lose. Hard.

Generalplan Ost is implemented.

 

[kham_coc]

How is this a challenge?

The state they create is monstrous in a million ways, including full scale anti-jewish genocide, but that isnt what matters.

What matters is they don't rapidly industrialise like the USSR. So when revanchist-militarist Germany - in whatever form it takes in this TL - comes from them, they lose. Hard.

Generalplan Ost is implemented.

But Generalplan ost is intrinsically tied to the Nazis, and made no sense whatsoever to anyone not a Nazi.
They might come in conflict over say, Ukraine, but if the Russian state is a right wing nationalist authoritarian one, that's busy ethnically cleansing it's territory of jews and muslims, anyone perceived to be a potential traitor, then Western Ukraine isn't a part of Russia. After that, the Wherstat isn't going to be remotely interested in some sort of colonial plantation adventure in Russia propper, and that's presupposing they just don't feel full after 'integrating' Poland.
And the only way to get them to make war against Russia is fear of russian resurgence - Which either isn't happening in this TL, or, if it is, they aren't in a position to do anything about - And that's presupposing the alt!germany is in roughly the same position as OTL, pre-barbarossa.

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

But Generalplan ost is intrinsically tied to the Nazis, and made no sense whatsoever to anyone not a Nazi.
They might come in conflict over say, Ukraine, but if the Russian state is a right wing nationalist authoritarian one, that's busy ethnically cleansing it's territory of jews and muslims, anyone perceived to be a potential traitor, then Western Ukraine isn't a part of Russia. After that, the Wherstat isn't going to be remotely interested in some sort of colonial plantation adventure in Russia propper, and that's presupposing they just don't feel full after 'integrating' Poland.
And the only way to get them to make war against Russia is fear of russian resurgence - Which either isn't happening in this TL, or, if it is, they aren't in a position to do anything about - And that's presupposing the alt!germany is in roughly the same position as OTL, pre-barbarossa.

To my knowledge paranoia about "living space" and wanting to expand further east was there in certain sections of German society before the Nazis, so I don't think it's entirely impossible that another faction of far-right nuts could desire something similar to OTL Generalplan Ost.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

But Generalplan ost is intrinsically tied to the Nazis, and made no sense whatsoever to anyone not a Nazi.
They might come in conflict over say, Ukraine, but if the Russian state is a right wing nationalist authoritarian one, that's busy ethnically cleansing it's territory of jews and muslims, anyone perceived to be a potential traitor, then Western Ukraine isn't a part of Russia. After that, the Wherstat isn't going to be remotely interested in some sort of colonial plantation adventure in Russia propper, and that's presupposing they just don't feel full after 'integrating' Poland.
And the only way to get them to make war against Russia is fear of russian resurgence - Which either isn't happening in this TL, or, if it is, they aren't in a position to do anything about - And that's presupposing the alt!germany is in roughly the same position as OTL, pre-barbarossa.

So... Germany at war with the United States and/or Britain is cut off from the world market. Which means short of food and oil. They intended to get it from Russia/Ukraine.

Feeding a Germany and a German occupied western europe cut off from the world market, by war with the serious naval powers, required starving eastern europe. Poland has no oil, nor can it supply enough food.

Hunger Plan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This prominent historian argues GeneralPlan Ost was driven by economic necessity - the racial stuff was more a way to justify it rather than the prime motivation.

The Wages of Destruction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[kham_coc]

To my knowledge paranoia about "living space" and wanting to expand further east in certain sections of German society predates the Nazis, so I don't think it's entirely impossible that another faction of far-right nuts could desire something similar to OTL Generalplan Ost.

Okay, General plan ost called for the genocide of a hundred million, and a german reich stretching to the Urals, lebensraum as an idea prior to the Nazis, was the baltics, poland, and maybe, western Ukraine - Absent (intentional, I mean in actual practice i can't see how it wouldn't mean a lot of poles dying, though everyone else would probably be 'okay' as long as one ignores the lack of political sovereignty) ethnic cleansing.

So... Germany at war with the United States and/or Britain is cut off from the world market. Which means short of food and oil. They intended to get it from Russia/Ukraine.

Absent the messianic desire to end Judeo-Bolshevism, there is nothing wrong with just trading with Russia.

Feeding a Germany and a German occupied western europe cut off from the world market, by war with the serious naval powers, required starving eastern europe.

Sure - This Wherstat alt!Germany would certainly choose to not feed say, the Poles if there wasn't enough food.

This prominent historian argues GeneralPlan Ost was driven by economic necessity - the racial stuff was more a way to justify it rather than the prime motivation.

But it wasn't. Going by OTL, all they had to do was Demob and devote industrial capacity to fixing the logistics of France (where food rotted in the absence of transportation). Again, absent the pre-ordained showdown with the USSR, there is no way that Alt!Germany starts a war with Russia.

 

[HelloThere]

But it wasn't. Going by OTL, all they had to do was Demob and devote industrial capacity to fixing the logistics of France (where food rotted in the absence of transportation). Again, absent the pre-ordained showdown with the USSR, there is no way that Alt!Germany starts a war with Russia.

From a German perspective it certainly was necessary. Every year you trade with the USSR it get's stronger while you are getting sucked into it's economic orbit. Nothing german politicians desired.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Absent the messianic desire to end Judeo-Bolshevism, there is nothing wrong with just trading with Russia.

Russia doesn't produce enough food for both Western Europe and Russia.

If it did, The Nazis would not have planned to completely destroy the cities of the USSR, exterminating their entire population. Instead they would have gnerally aimed to capture industry and put to use for their war effort.

This is straight up what the Nazi plans say.

TTL Russia will not trade enough food to German occupied western europe to starve itself. Also there is the possibility TTL Russia would militarily align against Germany meaning no traded food. Since conquest would be easy (because Russia does not to fast paced industrialisation) Revanchist-Militarist Germany would go with conquest.

 

[Garrison]

So... Germany at war with the United States and/or Britain is cut off from the world market. Which means short of food and oil. They intended to get it from Russia/Ukraine.

Feeding a Germany and a German occupied western europe cut off from the world market, by war with the serious naval powers, required starving eastern europe. Poland has no oil, nor can it supply enough food.

Hunger Plan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This prominent historian argues GeneralPlan Ost was driven by economic necessity - the racial stuff was more a way to justify it rather than the prime motivation.

The Wages of Destruction - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Adam Tooze's book is pretty much the go to reference when discussing the Nazi economy and a lot of posters like myself have a copy close to hand for whenever these arguments come up . And a minor point, I believe his training is as an economist rather than a historian. His argument is that the food question was simply one strand in the reasoning of Hitler's actions in the east, being thoroughly intertwined with matters of Nazi racial policy and the need to keep their slave labour alive long enough to get useful work out of them.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Adam Tooze's book is pretty much the go to reference when discussing the Nazi economy and a lot of posters like myself have a copy close to hand for whenever these arguments come up . And a minor point, I believe his training is as an economist rather than a historian. His argument is that the food question was simply one strand in the reasoning of Hitler's actions in the east, being thoroughly intertwined with matters of Nazi racial policy and the need to keep their slave labour alive long enough to get useful work out of them.

It still states (as do the Nazi plans) that Germany didnt have remotely enough food and had to take enough from the east to cause mass starvation in the east in order to keep Western Europe fed and the Nazi economy running.

 

[Garrison]

It still states (as do the Nazi plans) that Germany didnt have remotely enough food and had to take enough from the east to cause mass starvation in the east in order to keep Western Europe fed and the Nazi economy running.

Yes I know, what it definitely doe not say is that the 'racial stuff' was an excuse for the invasion of the USSR. Hitler's desire to destroy Bolshevism and seize Lebensraum was driving the decision to go east well before the Hunger Plan was developed.

 

[kham_coc]

From a German perspective it certainly was necessary. Every year you trade with the USSR it get's stronger while you are getting sucked into it's economic orbit. Nothing german politicians desired.

But that's strategic necessity, and built on the belief in the pre-ordained showdown. Or put another way, if we wave a magic wand and place Baku in Silesia, and Make Posen produce enough food to feed all of Europe, they would still a) Want to attack, and B), Attack.

Russia doesn't produce enough food for both Western Europe and Russia.

Europe can produce enough food to feed itself, when millions of men aren't mobilised, hundreds of thousands of horses aren't requisitioned, and when kilometers of rolling stock and thousands of lorries is used to transport food instead of troops - Also, Russia can be used to bypass the blockade.

If it did, The Nazis would not have planned to completely destroy the cities of the USSR, exterminating their entire population. Instead they would have gnerally aimed to capture industry and put to use for their war effort.

Well firstly, the plan was to kill everyone regardless, second, the industry had been relocated, and thirdly, see prior point.

This is straight up what the Nazi plans say.

The US 'nazi' plan would have been to use Nukes on the USSR in 1947 - The nazi plans might have been perfectly rational to the alt!german Wherstat that doesn't mean that still doesn't mean they would do them.

TTL Russia will not trade enough food to German occupied western europe to starve itself.

If it can't, the period between 1940-41 is what?

Also there is the possibility TTL Russia would militarily align against Germany

Why? This Russia would have no ties to France and the UK, perceiving them as abusive traitors.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Europe can produce enough food to feed itself, when millions of men aren't mobilised, hundreds of thousands of horses aren't requisitioned, and when kilometers of rolling stock and thousands of lorries is used to transport food instead of troops - Also, Russia can be used to bypass the blockade.

No, it can't. Europe in the early 20th century mass imports food from the colonies and focuses on manufacturing, high tech etc. This cannot abruptly change in a few years and even if it did (which it couldn't) this would severely damage war production and the German war with US/UK.

The mobilisation and invasion of the USSR helped re German and German occupied europe's food insecurity because all the soldiers and horses invading the USSR were being fed from captured territory.

Showdown is preordained because Germany has such a strong militarist tradition, the treaty of versailles was so humiliating and this can only end in a general european war. When this happens, Britain will cut Germany off from the world market to starve them into submission just like WW1.

Also, Russia can be used to bypass the blockade.

Nope, Russian transportation infrastructure was no way near good enough. The Nazis planned to move loads of people east because they could not move enough food west. And Russian transportation infrastructure will be much poorer without the high speed industrialisation with terrible human consequences practiced by the USSR.

Well firstly, the plan was to kill everyone regardless, second, the industry had been relocated, and thirdly, see prior point.

No, there were precise percentage quota's for racial categories to be killed. Not everyone just the number percieved as surplus mouths with targeting decided by racist ideology.

Some industry was relocated. Not most. It couldn't be for the same reason as food.

If it can't, the period between 1940-41 is what?

Is massive rationing in all Nazi occupied europe and massive death by starvation in German occupied Poland.

Why? This Russia would have no ties to France and the UK, perceiving them as abusive traitors.

Because if a militaristic German european hegemon makes peace with the US/UK/France and is reopened to the world market it will be so much more powerful than Russia. Why would it not attack? Best security is alliances.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Soviet Union came perilously close to joining the Axis at one point in 1940...

I think that there were some serious soviet policy makers that would be open to such an alliance, but the Axis would never accept it. Specifically the Germans and to a much smaller extent, the Japanese. It was the anti-comintern pact after all. Besides, Hitlers goal was to build an Empire by conquering much of Eastern Europe. Most of that land is a Russian. A war between Germany and the U.S.S.R. Was inevitable as long as Hitler is in charge.

 

[Garrison]

Honestly if there's no USSR I think the history of the 20s and 30s in Europe is likely to be so radically different that I think its extremely unlikely you will see anything like the circumstances that led to WWII.

 

[trinity]

Needless to say, just about any White faction at the time would have ruled Russia better than Lenin or Stalin ever did.

And that isn't even saying much about them, considering that the bars that I have set for them are so ridiculously low.

 

[kham_coc]

No, it can't. Europe in the early 20th century mass imports food from the colonies and focuses on manufacturing, high tech etc. This cannot abruptly change in a few years and even if it did (which it couldn't) this would severely damage war production and the German war with US/UK.

That's the UK - France and Italy were both exporters of food, and again, you are handwaving the enormous impact of mobilising millions of men, and logistical resources to invade the USSR, and it's impact on food production.

The mobilisation and invasion of the USSR helped re German and German occupied europe's food insecurity because all the soldiers and horses invading the USSR were being fed from captured territory.

Well no, they weren't, outside of one year, it always needed food supplies. And again, we are ignoring the massive fall in production due to the invasion.

Showdown is preordained because Germany has such a strong militarist tradition,

And French and UK Empires are what?

the treaty of versailles was so humiliating and this can only end in a general european war.

Against France, Poland, and the UK, sure. Russia, not so much - It was, and would in this TL too, be just as revisionist as Germany.

When this happens, Britain will cut Germany off from the world market to starve them into submission just like WW1.

And if we give alt!Germany France it doesn't matter, Both because with France and Spain, the UK can't fully blockade, and because there isn't a front.
Germany won't surrender because the blockade is performing a genocide on non-germans.

Nope, Russian transportation infrastructure was no way near good enough. The Nazis planned to move loads of people east because they could not move enough food west. And Russian transportation infrastructure will be much poorer without the high speed industrialisation with terrible human consequences practiced by the USSR.

Yes, but if they don't have anything to sell, there isn't anything to transport. Or put another way, there will be transport capacity.

Is massive rationing in all Nazi occupied europe and massive death by starvation in German occupied Poland.

Not my point - My point is if Alt!Russia can't supply them, they aren't in a position to start the war.

Because if a militaristic German european hegemon makes peace with the US/UK/France and is reopened to the world market it will be so much more powerful than Russia. Why would it not attack? Best security is alliances.

Because last time around, it fought Germany, and lost everything, and France and the UK exploited them as a punching bag.
They won't give two shits about Germany dismantling France.

 

[HelloThere]

But that's strategic necessity, and built on the belief in the pre-ordained showdown. Or put another way, if we wave a magic wand and place Baku in Silesia, and Make Posen produce enough food to feed all of Europe, they would still a) Want to attack, and B), Attack.

No it isn't. Every politician in every nation state will try to avoid getting sucked into being a client state of another nation state. The longer Nazi Germany trades with the USSR, the bigger Stalin's power gets.

 

[kham_coc]

No it isn't. Every politician in every nation state will try to avoid getting sucked into being a client state of another nation state. The longer Nazi Germany trades with the USSR, the bigger Stalin's power gets.

As a long term scenario its certainly intolerable, but it's certainly tolerable until the uk is forced to give up, the economical and political costs of the blockade isn't negligible, and absent an Eastern front, there is no way towards victory. And again, with no eastern front, the food issues can be resolved, and oil consumption isn't critical.

 

[Deleted member 107125]

Do you consider Nestor Makhno and Symon Petliura to be anti-Communist? If so, I believe that they would be the faction most suited to making Russia a worse place to live than the Stalinist USSR (this is assuming that either of them can conquer Russia ITTL as opposed to staying based in Ukraine like IOTL). Petliura was a Ukrainian ultra-nationalist who was responsible for a large number of deadly pogroms against Jews, with more Jews being killed under Petliura's rule than under any other Russian faction. It's not too much of a stretch to assume that he could be responsible for a nationwide Holocaust-style mass pogrom against the Russian Jewish population at some point down the line, and this would be a genocide of Holocaust-level proportions (there were about 5 million Jews in the Russian Empire at this time). Nestor Makhno would be even worse: his Anarchists were anti-Semites who engaged in bloody pogroms against Jews (just like Petliura's men), and the man himself was a drunkard who frequently engaged in sexual crimes against women. His anarcho-communism, however, would prove to be the real killer here, seeing as history has shown us that the more radical and the more revolutionary an ideological regime is, the more bloody will be its reign. I thus have no doubt that the Makhnovshchina, if extended to include all of Russia, would lead to the deaths of many millions of innocent individuals as the anarcho-communist system consumes and destroys itself from within.

You really cannot call Petliura an ultranationalist or an anti-semite, he advocated for Jewish liberation, but he was a spineless man who endorsed genocide.

Moreover, Petliura didn't have any interest in conquering all of Russia, whereas a man like Denikin would almost certainly enforce an anti-Semitic policy against Jews - which would probably be a tad worse than "normal" Tsarist antisemitism and could be even worse if guided by ideologues like Purishkievich.

 

[suul'ken]

Would Kaissereich setting count?
In it the White win the Russian civil war and resulting right wing national populist Russia can potentially be worse than the soviets on meany issues.
In worse case scenario I think it can basically end up as a Russian version of the Nazies.