AHC: Civil Rights Leader Elected Senator/Governor

[John Fredrick Parker]

What is the most likely scenario where a leader of the 1960's CR movement -- as senior as possible (so John Lewis or Jesse Jackson would be contenders) -- is elected to the US Senate or a Governorship? Bonus points if they also emerge as a presidential candidate at some point.

 

[Plumber]

Eliminating white-favoring runoff elections is a good starter.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Mind you, John Lewis isn't necessarily the most likely candidate here (if the scenario requires, say, a fundamental change in Georgia election law)...

 

[Ariosto]

Jesse Jackson decides to run for Senator of South Carolina every possible time from 1984 on, in the hopes of pressing African American positions into the political discourse.

He proceeds to win every Democratic Primary, but lose every General Election.
​

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

Shirley Chisholm is badly injured in a car accident in late 1967, leading to James Farmer winning a Congressional seat for the Republicans in New York? Farmer eventually defects from the Republicans and becomes an independent aligned with the Liberal Party, and is selected as the Democratic VP nominee by Jerry Brown in 1980, against President Ronald Reagan.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

<James Farmer>

Actually, while the OP is to get a leader like him into the Senate or a Governor's chair, this does give me an idea: Following RFK's assassination, just have pressure put on Rockefeller to nominate a place holder, obliged not to run for re-election in 1970; then, when the GOP is deciding who to nominate for Senate that year, Farmer (as a former congressional candidate and AS of HEW) would be a prime candidate. I'd say he'd stand a better chance against Buckley than Goodell did...

 

[Ariosto]

Actually, while the OP is to get a leader like him into the Senate or a Governor's chair, this does give me an idea: Following RFK's assassination, just have pressure put on Rockefeller to nominate a place holder, obliged not to run for re-election in 1970; then, when the GOP is deciding who to nominate for Senate that year, Farmer (as a former congressional candidate and AS of HEW) would be a prime candidate. I'd say he'd stand a better chance against Buckley than Goodell did...

At that point though your more likely to get Ottinger elected than Farmer, though a Farmer victory would may be possible if O'Dwyer were able to win the Democratic nomination again. Still, that is a lot of ground to make up against Buckley.
​

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

At that point though your more likely to get Ottinger elected than Farmer, though a Farmer victory would may be possible if O'Dwyer were able to win the Democratic nomination again. Still, that is a lot of ground to make up against Buckley.

On the Democrats, O"Dwyer would make it easier for Farmer, though I wonder if Sorenson wouldn't be even harder to get elected. Either way, Buckley is still the guy to beat, and even though Farmer's got a better chance than Goodell did, it's still going to be a fight, that's for sure.

 

[Historico]

Andrew Young came fairly close to winning the Democratic primary against Zell Miller in 1990 for the Georgia Gubernatorial race. If the Mayor and former UN Ambassador can moderate some of his position, I can see him squeeking by Isakon, on Wilderesque margins, but should be enough to get him inside the governor's mansion.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Now we're going Andrew Young getting elected in 1990 would have the interesting element of coming right on the heels of Douglas Wilder's election as Governor of Virginia, meaning 1989-90 would have the first two African Americans to be elected(*) governor of a state. That said, Young did lose by a lot OTL, so you'd need a hell of a PoD in there...

 

[JVM]

MLK Jr. survives and moves to a northern state later in life and runs for the Senate or a governorship as an older gentleman. He's not the martyr he is today, but I think if he runs in the right state and waits some time, it's possible.

 

[jack_donaghy_is_the_shado]

"In 1967 while living and studying in New York, Meredith decided to run as a Republican against the incumbent Adam Clayton Powell, Jr. in a special election for the Congressional seat in Harlem, but withdrew. Powell was re-elected.[15] Meredith said, "The Republican Party [of New York] made me an offer: full support in every way, everything." He had full access to top New York Republicans.[16]

So James Meredith doesn't withdraw and wins. Either he runs for the Senate later or Rocky could appoint him after RFK is murdered.
Meredith also ran against James Eastland in 1972, but without an act of God or an ASB...

 

[CCK]

I often wonder why Jesse Jackson after his presidential runs in 1984 and 1988 didn't run for senate. I think he definitely could have won the Illinois senate seat that Carol Mosley-Braun won in 1992. That was a Democratic year and Doug Wilder's election win in Virginia two years earlier showed a black candidate could win a state wide election.

I think 1992 would have been a perfect opportunity for Jackson to have won a seat to the U.S. senate. In the senate he could have used his seat to keep a national focus on various civil rights and poverty issues. Kept the Clinton administration's feet to the fire on those issues. He could have been another Ted Kennedy in the senate. I could just imagine the debates he'd have on the senate floor with other senators like Jesse Helms and Phil Gramm.

If he would have gotten re-elected in 1998 he would have likely been the only black member of the Congressional Black Caucus in the senate in 2000. And on January 6, 2001 members of the CBC (all House members) objected to the certification of Florida's electoral votes. They needed only one senator to co-sponsor the objection. Jackson could have been that objecting senator thus forcing an Electoral Commission. Jackson also could have been Gore's choice for a running mate in 2000. If a Gore/Jackson ticket wins in 2000, Jackson would be the front runner for the nomination in 2008.

Of course if Jackson had won that Illinois senate in 1992 and got re-elected in 1998 and 2004, that would have meant Barack Obama wouldn't have won that seat in 2004.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

MLK Jr...

Well, MLK surviving would have pretty profound butterflies in itself, and having him decide to run for office is far from a sure thing.

<James Meredith>

A somewhat interesting choice, since it's a debatable point as to whether he was a leader (or even a member) of the "Civil Rights Movement"; he, for one, didn't like the label...

<Jesse Jackson>

Now this is one of my favorite ideas so far -- actually, a 1990's TL with this and Andrew Young getting elected Governor of Georgia* could be pretty neat.

*(assuming the right PoD to get him to plausibly beat Zell Miller can be found)

 

[Dr. Waterhouse]

Now we're going Andrew Young getting elected in 1990 would have the interesting element of coming right on the heels of Douglas Wilder's election as Governor of Virginia, meaning 1989-90 would have the first two African Americans to be elected(*) governor of a state. That said, Young did lose by a lot OTL, so you'd need a hell of a PoD in there...

From what I remember reading about that race (and literally we are talking about Time Magazine articles from the time so don't hold me to this) the problem that kept Young from winning was actually black turnout. He did moderate his positions, but this cost him more net voters among his core than it won him white support.

How about we do this? Sam Nunn actually runs for President in 1988 and beats George H.W. Bush like a rented mule, leaving his Senate seat open. Zell Miller runs for that and wins in 1989, leaving Andrew Young a clear road to the Democratic nomination in 1990, although the unpopularity of the President's tax increases and wait-and-see policy in the Persian Gulf make it a tough mid-term election for Democrats.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

From what I remember reading about that race (and literally we are talking about Time Magazine articles from the time so don't hold me to this) the problem that kept Young from winning was actually black turnout. He did moderate his positions, but this cost him more net voters among his core than it won him white support.

Well if that's true, it could actually be an even less extreme PoD, and just find ways (like Young moderating less, or Miller saying something) of getting out the black vote for that primary. Then again, either way, he still has to win the general...

 

[Rich Rostrom]

I often wonder why Jesse Jackson after his presidential runs in 1984 and 1988 didn't run for senate. I think he definitely could have won the Illinois senate seat that Carol Mosley-Braun won in 1992.

Umm, no. CMB won the primary only because 3rd candidate Al Hofeld spent a good-size fortune attacking incumbent Alan Dixon. CMB was a low-profile figure - a veteran State Representive known as a "good-government" liberal Democrat from Hyde Park. She benefited from feminist rage at Dixon for voting to confirm Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court; and neither Hofeld nor Dixon did much to attack her.

Jackson would have been in a very different position. While he might have gained a bit more black support than CMB, he would not have gotten the feminist support that went to CMB as a woman. And where CMB was politically respectable, with an actual record in office, Jackson had long since been discredited in any role except posturing "activist". Hofeld and and Dixon would both dump on him. The OTL vote was CMB 38% Dixon 35%, Hofeld 27% - so it wouldn't take much of a switch for Dixon to win.

IMO, Dixon would have won, drawing about 42% to 33% for Hofeld and 25% for Jackson.

The knock-ons from this? Dixon would have won in November. He was one of the most popular Democrats in the state and the Republican candidate was a sacrificial lamb. He almost certainly wins again in 1998 and 2004, obviating the rise of Barack Obama, who might abandon politics in frustration.

With an additional Democrat Senator in 2001-2002, the Senate is under Democrat control from the start of the session. Thus there is no incentive for James Jeffords of Vermont to defect, as he can't give control to the Democrats. If Jeffords remains a Republican... he might not retire in 2006, but would probably be defeated by Bernie Sanders anyway.

 

[CCK]

Umm, no. CMB won the primary only because 3rd candidate Al Hofeld spent a good-size fortune attacking incumbent Alan Dixon. CMB was a low-profile figure - a veteran State Representive known as a "good-government" liberal Democrat from Hyde Park. She benefited from feminist rage at Dixon for voting to confirm Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court; and neither Hofeld nor Dixon did much to attack her.

Jackson would have been in a very different position. While he might have gained a bit more black support than CMB, he would not have gotten the feminist support that went to CMB as a woman. And where CMB was politically respectable, with an actual record in office, Jackson had long since been discredited in any role except posturing "activist". Hofeld and and Dixon would both dump on him. The OTL vote was CMB 38% Dixon 35%, Hofeld 27% - so it wouldn't take much of a switch for Dixon to win.

IMO, Dixon would have won, drawing about 42% to 33% for Hofeld and 25% for Jackson.

The knock-ons from this? Dixon would have won in November. He was one of the most popular Democrats in the state and the Republican candidate was a sacrificial lamb. He almost certainly wins again in 1998 and 2004, obviating the rise of Barack Obama, who might abandon politics in frustration.

With an additional Democrat Senator in 2001-2002, the Senate is under Democrat control from the start of the session. Thus there is no incentive for James Jeffords of Vermont to defect, as he can't give control to the Democrats. If Jeffords remains a Republican... he might not retire in 2006, but would probably be defeated by Bernie Sanders anyway.

Hofeld still would gave spent money attacking Dixon and Dixon's vote to confirm Clarence Thomas all still would have been factors if Jesse Jackson had ran that year instead of CM-B. Hofeld and Jackson would more than likely together gang up on the incumbent Dixon than Hofeld and Dixon ganging up on Jackson. Hofeld and Dixon had the same constituency and they would have still split the moderate/conservative Democratic vote. Leaving the liberal vote to Jackson.

Also Jackson in 1991 helped secure the release of American and British hostages being held by Saddam Hussein. So for all his "posturing," he still had political clout and was still held in high regard. Jackson had been a strong supporter of women's rights during his presidential runs. He supported the Equal Rights Amendment. He publicly compared Anita Hill to Rosa Parks after the senate hearings. He still would have gotten a large majority of the women's vote considering his positions on women's issues compared to Dixon's positions. He would have been able to raise more money than CM-B did and been able to get a higher black turnout.

Plus I doubt Dixon and Hofeld would spent a lot of time attacking Jackson, especially Dixon. Dixon would have known if he attacked Jackson too harshly that would hurt him in the general election. If Dixon had beaten Jackson in the primary by going too negative that would've suppressed the black vote in the general, especially if Jackson didn't endorse him after the primaries. Dixon knew he was already in trouble with female Democratic voters, attacking a figure like Jesse Jackson too harshly would have also hurt him with black voters. Without large support from both women and black voters, Dixon wouldn't have been able to beat the Republican in the general.

I still think Jackson could have beaten Dixon. The female vote that CM-B got still would have went to Jackson. Jackson likely would have even been able to get Rosa Parks, Coretta Scott King, and Shirley Chisholm to campaign for him (Chisholm did campaign for him during his presidential runs).

 

[Rich Rostrom]

Without large support from both women and black voters, Dixon wouldn't have been able to beat the Republican in the general.

Unless he was caught in bed with "a dead girl or or a live boy", to quote the old aphorism, Dixon would have won the general election.

Dixon was considered unbeatable by all Republicans. No one with any political experience was willing to challenge him - nor anyone with other significant credentials (tycoon, sports hero, ex-general, etc.).

The actual Republican candidate that year was a not-quite-nobody who was recruited to run so the Democrat would not be unopposed, and to ensure that some truly embarrassing figure didn't get the nomination (a LaRouchite, say).

 

[CCK]

Unless he was caught in bed with "a dead girl or or a live boy", to quote the old aphorism, Dixon would have won the general election.

Dixon was considered unbeatable by all Republicans. No one with any political experience was willing to challenge him - nor anyone with other significant credentials (tycoon, sports hero, ex-general, etc.).

The actual Republican candidate that year was a not-quite-nobody who was recruited to run so the Democrat would not be unopposed, and to ensure that some truly embarrassing figure didn't get the nomination (a LaRouchite, say).

Again the reason Dixon would have been "unbeatable" is because of his base, which was made up mostly of the traditional Democratic base (women and African-Americans). If women and African-Americans either stay home on election day or vote for Clinton but skip Dixon's name on their ballots, Dixon wouldn't have won re-election. It doesn't matter how strong or popular a candidate is, if he/she doesn't get their base to the polls they're not going to win.

There is a reason why he lost in the OTL. He angered a large segment of his base (women) with his Clarence Thomas vote. Now if he attacked Jesse Jackson or CM-B too negatively he would have lost African-American support also. NO Democrat would/is going to win state wide in Illinois without a good turnout from the Chicago area. No Democrat anywhere is going to win anything period without the support of women and African-Americans (their base) on election day.