AHC: Building the Hong Kong Defense Force

[M. A. Dickens]

Depending on the outcome of this discussion I may/may not write a TL out of it...

The year is 2016. Hong Kong has achieved independence, with AUSCANNZUKUS/NATO backing. PRC is very pissed off, and has vowed to retake the city-state at all costs. The new HK government is very concerned.

Now, a Hong Kong Defense Force capable of fending off any hostile incursions, and to (possibly) contribute to international peacekeeping missions, must be created.

Things to cover: Order of Battle for land force, air force, naval force, and special force, as well as equipments they will use
Budget: (almost) unlimited - you're allowed to pull a Lend-Lease if you have to
Limits: all weapons proposed must be existing equipments in service or stuffs that would (hopefully) enter service by 2016

Oh, and I'll admit the premise of Hong Kong going independent in 2016 is ASB, but the point of this challenge is merely to build HKDF - how we got there doesn't matter.

Thanks for the help!

Marc A

P.S. Caveat: TTL Hong Kong Disneyland was NOT built, meaning you can do what you want with that patch of ground...

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Light bump for attention.

Marc A

 

[EternalCynic]

First order of business will be to resolve the 70% unemployment rate and chronic shortages of power and water, before you can even think of building a military.

 

[Kome]

First order of business will be to resolve the 70% unemployment rate and chronic shortages of power and water, before you can even think of building a military.

Does the second part of your comment answer the first problem?

Anyways i'll make a post tomorrow (assuming other people havnt completely blown me out of the water by then).

 

[Life In Black]

Your best bet would probably be to look at the way Singapore's military is set up, or that of Japan. Would it stop China from invading if China was serious about it? No, but it would be enough to exhaust China's offensive and allow the United States military to counter-attack.

 

[Jukra]

Limits: all weapons proposed must be existing equipments in service or stuffs that would (hopefully) enter service by 2016

Six modern SSBN's. Only a credible nuclear deterrent would keep China from invading Hong Kong.

 

[Aozhouhuaren]

Let me guess, no PRC Military Garrison nearby?

An obvious move would be National Service for all men and women over 18 years old. No exemptions, only permitted delays for university students studying courses deemed essential by the central government.

I unfortunately think that Hong Kong will have to accept an American base or two in Hong Kong. How appropriate would it be that it be built on the land that was set aside for OTL Disneyland?

Importing weapons from the ROC, maybe from the US too.

Military exercises with the Canada, Australia and the ROC.

I don't know about these last three options, I'm not well versed on Sino-American relations in your TL.

 

[EternalCynic]

Your best bet would probably be to look at the way Singapore's military is set up, or that of Japan. Would it stop China from invading if China was serious about it? No, but it would be enough to exhaust China's offensive and allow the United States military to counter-attack.

Perhaps, but China won't have to land a single boot on Hong Kong to influence it. They'd just terminate Hong Kong's role as a logistic and financial hub for China and mobilize the billionaire tycoons who owe them favors to influence the government. The Hong Kong government would quickly become Chinese puppets regardless who was elected, and China will work hard to make the old Hong Kong government be blamed for the economic troubles. It's Sun Tzu raising his head again.

So yep, this thread belongs in ASB.

 

[Aozhouhuaren]

Reading this thread again and giving it more thought. I must say that I'm inclined to agree with everyone in the thread, unfortunately. I don't know the details of what's happening on the Mainland but I find the idea of raising a competent decently sized defense force, unfeasible close to impossible. Again I don't really know the circumstances outlined in your TL, perhaps you could give more context.

A military that can repel or at least fight on until help arrives, doesn't spring up over night. You might have to consider to inevitability of Western (Canada, Australia, US, other NATO nations etc) occupation until a defense force is established and trained. As uncomfortable as that might make you feel.

Then there's the issues of food, water and power. I doubt Hong Kong can grow enough for 8 million people on few untouched sq km it has left. Then again, Hong Kong could import all of it's food needs, but I'm very sure that if China was willing to go to war over Hong Kong, it would blockade Hong Kong and starve it until it surrenders.

The only successful independent city state I can think of that broke out of a federation/union, was Singapore. And even Singapore kept good relations (though strained at times) with the UK and Malaysia.

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Thanks for the interest!

I realize the way I set it up is a bit vague, and that's because I can't give away the plot line for NSIO.

I'll reply with more detail in the morning when I got my shit together (just came back from a party woot ).

Marc A

 

[M. A. Dickens]

First order of business will be to resolve the 70% unemployment rate and chronic shortages of power and water, before you can even think of building a military.

Hong Kong's not that dependent on PRC for power and water, although you are correct that unemployment would be a problem...

Does the second part of your comment answer the first problem?

Anyways i'll make a post tomorrow (assuming other people havnt completely blown me out of the water by then).

Eagerly awaits your post.

Your best bet would probably be to look at the way Singapore's military is set up, or that of Japan. Would it stop China from invading if China was serious about it? No, but it would be enough to exhaust China's offensive and allow the United States military to counter-attack.

I'm leaning towards that direction.

Six modern SSBN's. Only a credible nuclear deterrent would keep China from invading Hong Kong.

Wouldn't that be awesome? But no, I don't think anyone would be in a hrry to give Hong Kong nukes. Also, I'm trying to keep WMDs out of the challenge.

Perhaps, but China won't have to land a single boot on Hong Kong to influence it. They'd just terminate Hong Kong's role as a logistic and financial hub for China and mobilize the billionaire tycoons who owe them favors to influence the government. The Hong Kong government would quickly become Chinese puppets regardless who was elected, and China will work hard to make the old Hong Kong government be blamed for the economic troubles. It's Sun Tzu raising his head again.

So yep, this thread belongs in ASB.

Like I said at the beginning, this challenge is more finding the right equipment for the HKDF (small arms, vehicles, planes etc.). How Hong Kong achieves independence, what happens after independence, and whether the whole thing is ASB or not, doesn't matter.

Marc A

 

[M. A. Dickens]

Reading this thread again and giving it more thought. I must say that I'm inclined to agree with everyone in the thread, unfortunately. I don't know the details of what's happening on the Mainland but I find the idea of raising a competent decently sized defense force, unfeasible close to impossible. Again I don't really know the circumstances outlined in your TL, perhaps you could give more context.

A military that can repel or at least fight on until help arrives, doesn't spring up over night. You might have to consider to inevitability of Western (Canada, Australia, US, other NATO nations etc) occupation until a defense force is established and trained. As uncomfortable as that might make you feel.

Then there's the issues of food, water and power. I doubt Hong Kong can grow enough for 8 million people on few untouched sq km it has left. Then again, Hong Kong could import all of it's food needs, but I'm very sure that if China was willing to go to war over Hong Kong, it would blockade Hong Kong and starve it until it surrenders.

The only successful independent city state I can think of that broke out of a federation/union, was Singapore. And even Singapore kept good relations (though strained at times) with the UK and Malaysia.

I fully realize there's no way Hong Kong can grow a military out of nowhere - which is why I posted this challenge, to find ways to build one.

To address your points...

1. Food: there are unused farmlands in the New Territories that can be used to grow foodstuff. Not enough to feed 8 mil people, but it can help. A potential blockade would indeed be a problem, but for now assume US and allies actively protect lines of communication

2. Water: I always operated under the assumption that Hong Kong would be fucked without water from Dongjiang River. Turns out the reservoirs are getting so much water they had to dump it into the sea. [1]

3. Power: if this were to be taken at face value I think it won't be much of a concern.

And yes, there will be a Military Assistance Command - Hong Kong (MACH), and UN Observer Force Far East (UNOFFE), made up of troops from a multitude of nations. It's not an occupation force, though - think USFK on a smaller scale. [2]

I'll have to PM you my other thoughts, as they contain spoilers.



[1] Interesting story: in 2009 Guangdong experienced a drought. Hong Kong's government offered to reduce water imports and help with the situation - a suggestion declined by Guangdong's government. It is believed that Guangdong makes quite a lot of money from selling Dongjiang River water to Hong Kong

[2] Trust me, if the option is western protectorate/puppet or Chinese occupation, 85% of Hong Kongers would choose the former...

Marc A

 

[mcdo]

Hmm, a tough problem. I think the key factor is that the HKDF will *always* be outnumbered. Therefore, Hong Kong should obtain as many force multipliers as possible--air support (including close air support, possibly via UAVs), artillery, everything. The other big factor is that we know Hong Kong will be on the defensive. If there is time to prepare, HK should fortify every available inch of the island, and be prepared to defend in depth. If at all possible, preparations should be made to either evacuate the civilian population, or hide them in shelters underground. HK probably can't keep the PLA out of the city, but they can make them fight for every floor of every building.

If HK prepares and fights properly, they can force several Chinese deaths for each Hong Konger killed. Who knows, if HK can make it clear that taking the city would bleed the Chinese army white, perhaps the Chinese leadership will think twice before invading. If not, they can at least foist a Stalingrad on the enemy, and perhaps even hold out until help arrives.

The other option is to adopt Taiwan-style missiles--make it clear that if China invades, HK can strike back, and the damage won't be confined to the area around HK. I am unsure about this, however. It risks escalating the conflict. In the end, HK would probably be better served by spending their missile funds putting SAM and anti-missile batteries on top of every single building.

 

[superjames1992]

The Defense Force would need a modern air force capable of achieving air superiority. Lots of SAMs and AA guns, of course. Frankly, though, unless Hong Kong has nukes, the Chinese are going to be able to take the city without too much difficulty if they really want it.

By the way, a timeline on this would be awesome!

 

[Life In Black]

An idea, any chance of Hong Kong in TTL making deals with South Korean arms manufacturers? Most of South Korea's weapons systems would probably be ideal for Hong Kong in this scenario.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Republic_of_Korea_Army

 

[Ariosto]

The United States would arm, and effectively have to fund, the military of this Hong Kong Republic for some time until their Economy is able to come back from the lack of access to the Mainland that they have grown accustomed too. The PRC will be hurting too, but they are more capable to taking that kind of blow.
​

 

[M. A. Dickens]

By the way, a timeline on this would be awesome!

Follow NSIO (link in sig ) and you will find out.

Marc A

 

[CalBear]

Walks like a game, quacks like a game.

Games go to Shared Worlds.

 

[Life In Black]

Walks like a game, quacks like a game.

Games go to Shared Worlds.

How is this a game? I don't see it as being any different than any other speculation thread on the board, especially considering it was asked so as to aid in an active story on the board, not merely for one's personal enjoyment.

Anyway, give me a little time marcus_aurelius, and I'll try putting together a potential TOE for you.

 

[M. A. Dickens]

How is this a game? I don't see it as being any different than any other speculation thread on the board, especially considering it was asked so as to aid in an active story on the board, not merely for one's personal enjoyment.

Anyway, give me a little time marcus_aurelius, and I'll try putting together a potential TOE for you.

Thanks for the support, LIB! I've also PMed CalBear to appeal the case. Hope it'll work.

Marc A