Hitler intended the war with Poland to be only limited and didn't plan for a general war until 1942 or so. He honestly thought that the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact would cause the British to back down from their guarantee to Poland and was shocked when they didn't.
However, after occupying Czechoslovakia in 1939, the British and French were determined to not give in any more. The next time Hitler acts, it's going to be war.
One possibility is that Hitler does not listen to Ribbentrop in late 1939 and agrees with those in the Reich that Britain intends to honor its guarantee. Hitler might hold off going to war in 1939 until Germany completes its rearmament plan in 1941/1942.
The problem with that is that Germany is beginning to experience a lot of economic problems by late 1939. It "solved" those problems by plundering the countries they invaded. By not going to war in 1939, Germany will experience problems. It simply can't afford the level of its rearmament program and pay for needed raw materials not available in Germany itself. But this could possibly be overcome until after 1941. It's very debateable.
I don't think Hitler can come into power by 1936. 1933 was going to be his highwater mark. Economy had started to improve by then, and if he couldn't become Chancellor in 1933, he couldn't do it by 1936.
If the war is delayed until 1941, FDR won't be US President. But the US will also not be joining any European war. Isolationist feelings are just too entrenched. If someone like Robert Taft is elected, the US won't even take the steps FDR did in 1940-1941.
I wouldn't classify US actions towards Japan in 1941 as being provocative unless you feel that someone witnessing a rape/assault on the streets and calling for help is also "provoking" the rapist/assaulter to attack him as well. It pushes the burden of aggression off Japan which completely deserves it.
