Gaúcho Maldito
Banned
Exactly.I am voting for expanded options, but with that our goal would still be to get Ukraine into Union peacefully as possible
Exactly.I am voting for expanded options, but with that our goal would still be to get Ukraine into Union peacefully as possible
War is not necessary; there are chances we will reach some type of compromise. The thing is that if some things go bad, then an intervention is entirely plausible.I apologize for my lack of knowledge i am not really up to date in details about relations between russia and ukraine ITL, but why is war considered necessary here? Doesnt ukraine have russian friendly government and generally more positive image about russia as whole?
We should not project an effectively complete cultural and geopolitical climate from certain time into a place it will not necessarily fit anyways.War is not necessary; there are chances we will reach some type of compromise. The thing is that if some things go bad, then an intervention is entirely plausible.
People can have a will of their own and Ukraine is a massive country if we only encounter .05% dedicated opposition that is 22500 people for example given over 45 million live there. That and Nato and various European groups will support them.I apologize for my lack of knowledge i am not really up to date in details about relations between russia and ukraine ITL, but why is war considered necessary here? Doesnt ukraine have russian friendly government and generally more positive image about russia as whole?
Yea its quite good explained by @boredviewer1234 .I apologize for my lack of knowledge i am not really up to date in details about relations between russia and ukraine ITL, but why is war considered necessary here? Doesnt ukraine have russian friendly government and generally more positive image about russia as whole?
People can have a will of their own and Ukraine is a massive country if we only encounter .05% dedicated opposition that is 22500 people for example given over 45 million live there. That and Nato and various European groups will support them.
The Ukrainian government pretty friendly positive image of Russia does not necessarily mean they yearn to to be apart of it and as such it's a good thing to treat it the government and it's army as potentially hostile than expect them to welcome our forces with open arms if we want to well take it expect the worst and hope for the best.
In the best scenario I think a conflict after Ukraine is joined into the Union would occur and would be fairly large, adding to our counter insurgency operations we already do in the caucasus region. In the worst case this will be one of the biggest wars since 1941.
The fact that we also fairly recently had two major world war 3 scares the last two years might also alienate a few people there who hoped a closer connection with Russia would result in more security. No one from say lviv wants themselves and their family to die for Syria because the Union wants more influence in the Mediterranean.
There also is the question of timing, if the intervention takes place in say 2 years that both gives us both time to shore up our position true but also a lot more crises to negatively affect how they see the Union.
Some insurgency or small scale limited warfare is not a bad price for atleast central and eastern Ukraine.
This timeline is quite realistic there are many fics out there which are unrealistic. So , we can take some leeway here.
Absolutely, as long as the war is a quick and mostly bloodless SMO.I agree with you Kriss, what would happen after the war lets say we got entirety of Ukraine, would we restore Ukraine as entity in the Union?
I think you catch more flies with honey then with vinegar.
While I completely agree with @Kriss on that the Ukrainian people will not give up their state for nothing, nor any of their state responsibilities, I do think that the corruption and lack of opportunities of the post Soviet Ukrainian state allows for opportunities for the Ukrainian people to create a union with the much much better off then OTL Union State. Sure OTL there was no reason to do so, as OTL Russia was an equal mess if not worse then Ukraine, but now after all the reforms we did, the green energy focus, free tuition, better industry, etc etc. Plus most of the elderly in the country have (selective) fond memories about the Soviet Union. Combine that with what the young will think of the previously mentioned employment opportunities, free tuition options and the ecological push in the Union State, I can certainly see them combining to vote for a form of collaboration. Especially if there has been a positive impact on Belarus.
I do agree it will be not a singular country. I see more an EU like structure, or even slightly more of a confederation / federation state (e.g. joint defense, custom union, maybe even foreign policy and/or justice system). I think neither of those are out of the realm of possibilities.
We don't need to head to war. Economically, it isn't something that does us any good.I apologize for my lack of knowledge i am not really up to date in details about relations between russia and ukraine ITL, but why is war considered necessary here? Doesnt ukraine have russian friendly government and generally more positive image about russia as whole?
Problem with EU like structure is that we may don't even want it as we already have EEU/CIS to serve as a platform to this.
Now it's not like i don't want Ukraine to be a member state of Union State. I do but conditions for that need to be meet and integration should hopefully happen peacefully to avoid sanctions. This is why I'm in favor of gradual integration if it's possible, potentially via puppet pro Russian regime/government (let's be honest we could just have new government do opposite of decommunization laws and ban all pro Western/nationalist parties leaving only a managed pro Russian democracy in power).
As for the state structure? Honestly copy pasting old Soviet state structure isn't bad if you actually apply what is written on the paper with some modifications. We already kinda do that with our constitution.
Idea is that in order to secure equal representation for all Union republics we should have council of the nation's /republics as a part of Parliament where all three republics get to send equal numbers of delegates and Council of citizens based on an popular vote. In exchange for this new deal Belarusia who's the least populous and economically strong members gives up its vice Presidency position in favor of giving this position to Ukraine. Russia of course gets its own separate government and institutions here as having it have common Parliament with other two Union members controlling majority of votes in one part of the Parliament isn't practical. Plus having Union level institutions and government would increase the impression that this is a common state.
Generally idea is that this would secure equal representation for all three members while also securing democratic and equal representation for all citizens. Autonomy of each individual member state could be arranged etc, but generally nothing could get done without votes from other two member state's. We could technically reform Constitutional court as well and have Ukrainian, Belarusian and Russian President each appoint three Judges from their respective states to ensure that Court will be fair and just to all member state's.
Solid pair of posts.Ukrainen opinion about Union will also dependent on economic prosperity of Union. Majority of Ukrainen pre 2013 did not had any problem with Russia they just preferred Eurointegration because wages and standards of living in EU were higher. But if Russia will reach at least Italian or Spanish level of prosperity, majority of Ukrainen will prefer integration with Russia.
How exactly does the Russian-Belarus Union work again? Is it more 'governments unified into a single entity' or more 'shared laws and policy and treasury but separately government'? if it is the first we could add Observer/Prospective Member positions where they have delegates in the Union and can observe and get familiar with the going ons and process of things. A Non-Integrated Member position where they confirm they seek to join but don't fully comply with Union laws and regulations so they retain some Independence while they work on things to become Compliant. And Full Members, like Russia and Belarus are.