A 'Greater' Northern War

[MagicalPhantom345]

I got inspired by this threads central topic: Link

So apparently King Frederick William 1(The Soldier King) of Prussia was intended to marry Queen Ulrika Elenora of Sweden at the start of 1700, but on the verge of certification Charles XII pulled the plug on these plans for reasons unknown. Going on to bring about his own death and start Swedens decline because of military blunders.

So it got me wondering that if he allowed the marriage to come about, would Augustus the Strong declare war on Prussia like threatened to in OTL for The Great Elector being elevated to King. If so how would Prussia joining Sweden's war effort affect the course of the war against Peter I of Russia, Augustus II of Saxony- Poland-Lithuania, and Frederich IV of Denmark-Norway
Would other nations of Europe get involved?
How would the Peace treaty look at the end of it?
And If Charles dies like in OTL, how will Sweden fare under the Soldier King and his descendants?

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

For one thing, Prussia would be a significant contributor to the war against Saxony and Poland-Lithuania. Sweden could use this to focus on Russia, and could follow up on Narva. Basically, Russia gets its butt kicked. After that, who knows. Swedish-Prussian union with alt-Frederick the Great as king anyone? The sheer army quality would be off the charts...

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

but on the verge of certification Charles XII pulled the plug on these plans for reasons unknown.

Carl XII didn't pull the plug, Friedrich Wilhelm refused the marriage by bribing the ambassador to say negative things about Ulrike

 

[Wendell]

Carl XII didn't pull the plug, Friedrich Wilhelm refused the marriage by bribing the ambassador to say negative things about Ulrike

Why?

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

Why?

Because while Frederich William I was a phenomenal administrator and social reformer. He was equally an abusive asshole to everyone around him because of his temper.
Honestly I think that while he will make few friends in Sweden, will at least be respected for his military achievements against Saxony, Denmark-Norway, and Poland.
Not to mention being even more beloved in Prussia doubling it's territory alongside revolutionary reforms

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Why?

because he was in love with his OTL wife and wanted his father to agree to the match (the old man didn't particularly like the idea of a Hannoverian match). So he bribed the Prussian ambassadors to say negative things about the other three candidates they'd been sent to vet, in order to force his dad to agree.

Not to mention being even more beloved in Prussia doubling it's territory alongside revolutionary reforms

uh what? From everything I've read about him, even the Berliners hated him and his dreaded cane that he used to beat the most random person with if they annoyed him. And this is from a biographer who is willing to concede that had it not been for him, Frederick the Great would never achieved the successes he did. Mostly thanks to his dad building up the army (including the ridiculous Giants' Regiments) and leaving him a full treasury (Prussia was pretty much the only major German state which could say as much at the outbreak of the WotAS)

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

PS: given the fact that Ulrike exploited her jenny-on-the-spot advantage to be declared her brother's heir, I personally regard it as more likely that the Swedish government will uphold Carl XII's original intent of the duke of Holstein as heir rather than agreeing to a PU. But I could be wrong.

@Atterdag @Archduke @BlueFlowwer

 

[Archduke]

Because while Frederich William I was a phenomenal administrator and social reformer. He was equally an abusive asshole to everyone around him because of his temper.
Honestly I think that while he will make few friends in Sweden, will at least be respected for his military achievements against Saxony, Denmark-Norway, and Poland.
Not to mention being even more beloved in Prussia doubling it's territory alongside revolutionary reforms

i don’t feel like Frederick William could get away with treating Ulrike like Sophia. Even though Sophia’s family became even more important than Ulrike’s, the family dynamics among the Hanoverians were far less forgiving than among the Swedes. If Ulrike were to complain then there would be an issue, evause Karl XII is not going to tolerate the same type of behavior that George I and George II did.

PS: given the fact that Ulrike exploited her jenny-on-the-spot advantage to be declared her brother's heir, I personally regard it as more likely that the Swedish government will uphold Carl XII's original intent of the duke of Holstein as heir rather than agreeing to a PU. But I could be wrong.

@Atterdag @Archduke @BlueFlowwer

I imagine that you’re correct. The Swedes were not fans of becoming someone else’s satellite. In OTL, they were a little worried that they’d become sub-servient to Holstein’s Baltic interests. Although they weren’t necessarily opposed to Sweden’s, Holstein did have its own ideas and Sweden did not like that. They also did not like the idea of a monarch as “strong” as Karl XII (and especially his father Karl XI). In OTL, the Hessian who has zero Baltic interests was preferable to the 18-year old Holsteiner, who sounded dangerously like his uncle. In TTL, that’s not the same.

That is of course assuming the same events unfold. I think there’s every possibility of Karl XII avoiding his OTL death and living long enough to either make sure Charles Frederick is his heir or to have an heir of his own.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

i don’t feel like Frederick William could get away with treating Ulrike like Sophia. Even though Sophia’s family became even more important than Ulrike’s, the family dynamics among the Hanoverians were far less forgiving than among the Swedes. If Ulrike were to complain then there would be an issue, evause Karl XII is not going to tolerate the same type of behavior that George I and George II did.

Since you have written timelines from around this period, do you believe that Prussia would be able to make any meaningful contributions to Sweden's War effort?
As this was before any of the real reforms turned Prussia into a military power house

 

[von Adler]

i don’t feel like Frederick William could get away with treating Ulrike like Sophia. Even though Sophia’s family became even more important than Ulrike’s, the family dynamics among the Hanoverians were far less forgiving than among the Swedes. If Ulrike were to complain then there would be an issue, evause Karl XII is not going to tolerate the same type of behavior that George I and George II did.


I imagine that you’re correct. The Swedes were not fans of becoming someone else’s satellite. In OTL, they were a little worried that they’d become sub-servient to Holstein’s Baltic interests. Although they weren’t necessarily opposed to Sweden’s, Holstein did have its own ideas and Sweden did not like that. They also did not like the idea of a monarch as “strong” as Karl XII (and especially his father Karl XI). In OTL, the Hessian who has zero Baltic interests was preferable to the 18-year old Holsteiner, who sounded dangerously like his uncle. In TTL, that’s not the same.

That is of course assuming the same events unfold. I think there’s every possibility of Karl XII avoiding his OTL death and living long enough to either make sure Charles Frederick is his heir or to have an heir of his own.

There's several aspects of Sweden in this era - in general, yes, the Swedes did not care to be under a foreign King, or at least one that did not rule from Stockholm. Parts of the nobility would love a weak monarch that did not impede their rule. Other parts, and in particular the peasant estate absolutely wanted a powerful monarch to reign in the nobility and ensure there's little corruption and self-serving at the top of the government. These were the forces that battled back and forth during the entire Liberty Era, starting with Ulrika Eleonora's abdication and the final dissolution of the Carolean absolutism 1720 and the coup attempt 1756 and the successful coup of 1772.

The Holsteins were not the same threat - Sweden was the larger, richer, more powerful and more prestigeous title. Just like the Hessians OTL ruled from Stockholm, so would the Holsteins (pretty much like the Hannovers in Britain).

If Ulrika Eleonora marries Frederik Wilhelm and there's an allianced between Brandenburg-Prussia and Sweden, it might mean that the Great Northern War does not break out, or that the support of Brandenburg-Prussia in western Poland and against Saxony means that Saxony is knocked out of the war much earlier. It might mean that Frederik of Holstein-Gottorp does not die in 1702 and that some kind of peace is concluded early enough for Karl XII to marry and have his own heir. If not, Karl Fredrik of Holstein-Gottorp would be a suitable candidate - certainly preferable to a personal union with Brandenburg-Prussia, which is rich, powerful and prestigous enough to actually be the primary throne of the holder, depending on the preference of the monarch.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

You can also be assured that if Ulrika becomes empress, he will do all in his power to incorporate the Swedish holdings in Germany into Prussia, alongside regaining Little Prussia from Poland.

Could Prussia invade Denmark-Norway if they knock Saxony out early enough?
Plus wouldn't Habsburg Emperor Leopold I get involved since he allowed Prussia to become a Kingdom?

 

[Madhukar_Shah]

Plus wouldn't Habsburg Emperor Leopold I get involved since he allowed Prussia to become a Kingdom?

Prussia is not a kingdom yet- Leopold allowed use of the title king in Prussia, the Hohenzollerns wouldn’t use the title king of Prussia until the partitions of Poland.

If not, Karl Fredrik of Holstein-Gottorp would be a suitable candidate - certainly preferable to a personal union with Brandenburg-Prussia, which is rich, powerful and prestigous enough to actually be the primary throne of the holder, depending on the preference of the monarch.

I don’t think Brandenburg-Prussia at this stage would really stand a chance of being the centre of the monarchy. Far from being primary throne it doesn’t really even have a throne, it doesn’t have any sort of empire, it hasn’t pulled off any impressive conquests. In the event of a personal union, the monarch would rule from Stockholm, but they’d probably bring with them a bunch of nobles from Prussia that would be difficult to integrate into the Swedish nobility.

 

[von Adler]

Prussia is not a kingdom yet- Leopold allowed use of the title king in Prussia, the Hohenzollerns wouldn’t use the title king of Prussia until the partitions of Poland.



I don’t think Brandenburg-Prussia at this stage would really stand a chance of being the centre of the monarchy. Far from being primary throne it doesn’t really even have a throne, it doesn’t have any sort of empire, it hasn’t pulled off any impressive conquests. In the event of a personal union, the monarch would rule from Stockholm, but they’d probably bring with them a bunch of nobles from Prussia that would be difficult to integrate into the Swedish nobility.

Brandenburg has recently inherited Prussia and declared itself a Kingdom ("in Prussia" rather than "of Prussia" and outside the Holy Roman Empire, but still). A Brandenburg-Prussian monarch (Fredrik Wilhelm or his son with Ulrika Eleonora) is bound to have been brought up in Brandenburg, speak German as his primary language, be used to serfdom and no representation for the peasant estate. He'll be concerned more with Brandenburg's ambitions than with Sweden's.

While Holstein would be decently contenct with being second fiddle (just like Pfalz was to Sweden), neither Brandenburg nor Sweden would. A personal union will not work well.

 

[Georg von Frundsberg]

Could Prussia invade Denmark-Norway if they knock Saxony out early enough?
Plus wouldn't Habsburg Emperor Leopold I get involved since he allowed Prussia to become a Kingdom?

There is another consideration which is the War of the Spanish Succession. Frederick was named 'King' because he promised to help Emperor Leopold in the war. The Prussian army was fighting France under the command of Eugene of Savoy at that time so I doubt Frederick would just withdraw his troops and invade Poland/Denmark instead.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

There is another consideration which is the War of the Spanish Succession. Frederick was named 'King' because he promised to help Emperor Leopold in the war. The Prussian army was fighting France under the command of Eugene of Savoy at that time so I doubt Frederick would just withdraw his troops and invade Poland/Denmark instead.

This, if Prussia somehow decides that they have more to gain in Poland, it removes power from the Anti French coalition which could alter the result of the war in the favor of the French

 

[kham_coc]

This, if Prussia somehow decides that they have more to gain in Poland, it removes power from the Anti French coalition which could alter the result of the war in the favor of the French

I think one has to consider the timelines then, as this might be a reason for the war starting as OTL, as Prussia is 'busy' and once it's clear that Sweden is winning, Prussia might find itself a lot less busy when there is nice Saxon real estate to be had.

 

[Archduke]

You can also be assured that if Ulrika becomes empress, he will do all in his power to incorporate the Swedish holdings in Germany into Prussia, alongside regaining Little Prussia from Poland.

Could Prussia invade Denmark-Norway if they knock Saxony out early enough?
Plus wouldn't Habsburg Emperor Leopold I get involved since he allowed Prussia to become a Kingdom?

There is another consideration which is the War of the Spanish Succession. Frederick was named 'King' because he promised to help Emperor Leopold in the war. The Prussian army was fighting France under the command of Eugene of Savoy at that time so I doubt Frederick would just withdraw his troops and invade Poland/Denmark instead.

This, if Prussia somehow decides that they have more to gain in Poland, it removes power from the Anti French coalition which could alter the result of the war in the favor of the French

I think one has to consider the timelines then, as this might be a reason for the war starting as OTL, as Prussia is 'busy' and once it's clear that Sweden is winning, Prussia might find itself a lot less busy when there is nice Saxon real estate to be had.

It’s important to point out that the War of the Spanish Succession started after the Great Northern War. Even though both wars are commonly dated to 1700, that dating is inaccurate. Carlos II only died in November 1700, barely a few weeks before the Battle of Narva and after Denmark-Norway had already been forced to exit the war. So for Prussia to get entangled in a Northern War before they can even get involved in the Spanish Succession, is very possible. In which case, Prussia isn’t going to get it’s kingship.

The other thing I want to remind people of is that although Brandenburg is definitely stronger than Saxony, Saxony was by no means a slouch. In the Thirty Years War we saw Saxony raise as many as 36,000 men. Later they were raising more than 10,000 for the wars of the 1680s-90s. Eventually Saxony bogged down the Swedes for a bit before being totally defeated. So Brandenburg can certainly help Sweden in overcoming Saxony, but it’s not going to be the walkover that the 1756 invasion was.

 

[Georg von Frundsberg]

I wonder if the war eventually went against Sweden like in OTL, could Prussia again 'pull a Wehlau' (Treaty of Wehlau) with Poland? Like in the Second Northern War, Prussia, allied to Sweden, could seize Ermland (or right-bank Vistula if more ambitious), and switch sides at the right moment to offer Poland military assistance in exchange for recognition of its conquests.

If Prussia joined the war early on, could Hanover also participate? I see that Karl XII could offer Hanover Bremen-Verden (this will be compensated with gains from Poland and Russia assuming they win the war) as a condition.

 

[MagicalPhantom345]

If Prussia joined the war early on, could Hanover also participate? I see that Karl XII could offer Hanover Bremen-Verden (this will be compensated with gains from Poland and Russia assuming they win the war) as a condition.

And by extension, bring the belligerents Spanish War of Succession into the Great Northern War. Probably combining into another great European war

 

[von Adler]

I wonder if the war eventually went against Sweden like in OTL, could Prussia again 'pull a Wehlau' (Treaty of Wehlau) with Poland? Like in the Second Northern War, Prussia, allied to Sweden, could seize Ermland (or right-bank Vistula if more ambitious), and switch sides at the right moment to offer Poland military assistance in exchange for recognition of its conquests.

If Prussia joined the war early on, could Hanover also participate? I see that Karl XII could offer Hanover Bremen-Verden (this will be compensated with gains from Poland and Russia assuming they win the war) as a condition.

Bremen and the tolls on the Weser river was the primary cash cow of the Swedish German provinces - while Pommerania never turned a profit, Bremen did from day one. Bremen paid for the fortification construction in Pommerania and for the German garrisons of ~8 000 men. There is no way Sweden is giving that up to get some provinces with entitled nobility, serfs they can't rely on and a whole bunch of angry catholics.