2000 election: McCain wins SC primary...

[clintonforever]

South Carolina was George W Bush's big comeback after losing NH to McCain. Suppose McCain had won big in SC plus a few more upsets....would it look more like the 2008 close Democratic nomination race between Obama and Hillary?

Supposing Bush still gets the nomination.....more pressure to choose McCain as VP?

 

[RogueBeaver]

Well, if McCain can win a few more close races, he can break the Bush spell and win the GOP nomination. Since McCain would never pick Bush as VP, IMO a good Veep could be George Voinovich. That would put Gore on the defensive among blue-collars and swing Ohio and make the industrial states more competitive than OTL. Perhaps Gore chooses Ann Richards as VP?

P.S.: Yes, a shameless plug for my Turtledove-nominated Cradling Camelot.

 

[Orville_third]

Actually, a few people have already suggested this. One person even had a brief timeline as a result. (I have yet to start on my timeline...)

Bush could try and stay in for the long haul, but a win by McCain in SC would help shore up McCain's ties to the Religious Right and give him an aura of inevitability. (After all, since it began in 1980, the winner of the SC Republican Primary has won the Republican nomination.) (Of course, if Bush and Rove bring up what else the SC primary is known for, it could sink McCain.)

 

[usertron2020]

McCain could never beat Karl Rove

Actually, a few people have already suggested this. One person even had a brief timeline as a result. (I have yet to start on my timeline...)

Bush could try and stay in for the long haul, but a win by McCain in SC would help shore up McCain's ties to the Religious Right and give him an aura of inevitability. (After all, since it began in 1980, the winner of the SC Republican Primary has won the Republican nomination.) (Of course, if Bush and Rove bring up what else the SC primary is known for, it could sink McCain.)

McCain was far too honorable a man to be able to respond to turd blossom's attacks in kind. Lies circle the world twice before the truth can get it's shoes on. Remember, Rove was a member of Nixon's Plumber Squad while he was still in college! You could expect robo-calls telling republicans that McCain was working for the NVA in North Vietnam, he was pro-late term abortion, pro-gay rights, anti-gun, anti-tobacco, liberal, wasn't really a citizen(canal zone birth), and most importantly, between McCain and Bush, Bush was the one you most wanted to have a beer with.

You can expect ITTL, as OTL, the mega-dittoheads who make up the Republican primary voting base will swallow it all, hook line and sinker, rod reel and pole.

 

[RogueBeaver]

This is from my own Cradling Camelot. While the POD is somewhat different, McCain still wins the nomination and two terms in the White House.

South Carolina primary (R), Feb. 19

“Early results show a landslide for Governor Bush; however results from Columbia and its surrounding suburbs have not yet reached the CNN studio. We’ll keep you updated as the night progresses. What we see now is McCain’s strength among independents, crossover Democrats and urban voters, while Bush is winning among rural and conservative Republican voters. The Thurmond endorsement may turn out a mixed blessing for Governor Bush…”



Sen. John McCain: 52.4%
Gov. George Bush: 47.6%

 

[usertron2020]

South Carolina, South Carolina, Uber Alles!

This is from my own Cradling Camelot. While the POD is somewhat different, McCain still wins the nomination and two terms in the White House.

South Carolina primary (R), Feb. 19

“Early results show a landslide for Governor Bush; however results from Columbia and its surrounding suburbs have not yet reached the CNN studio. We’ll keep you updated as the night progresses. What we see now is McCain’s strength among independents, crossover Democrats and urban voters, while Bush is winning among rural and conservative Republican voters. The Thurmond endorsement may turn out a mixed blessing for Governor Bush…”



Sen. John McCain: 52.4%
Gov. George Bush: 47.6%

Uh, ahem. RogueBeaver, I know you are a Canadian who is very knowledgeable about America and its' politics. But after all, nobody is perfect. The South Carolina Primary is Republicans Only! No Independents, no crossover Democrats. That's why South Carolina, the most conservative state in the union, with the most rightwing of all state republican parties, is so influential in gravitating to the most extreme but viable candidate. Sorry.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Urban voters made the difference in these GOTV efforts.

 

[usertron2020]

This are South Carolina Republican Voters We're Talking About!

Urban voters made the difference in these GOTV efforts.

Except the urban voters you refer to will be overwhelmingly registered Democrats (Black voters). They want that party affiliation to enable them to select the Mayors and state reps that they want. The primary will still be decided by the MOST rightwing electorate in the USA.

 

[Orville_third]

True, McCain wouldn't go truly negative against Bush. But, Bush would be hypocritical against him. Were McCain to win in 2000, you can bet that Bush would be hyping the poll closings up and accusing McCain (as he did IOTL) of going negative. (In OTL, he called a mailing comparing their positions on Social Security an "attack ad".)

As for the SC primary, most of what has been said is spot-on. However, it worth noting two things. First, SC's primary isn't closed. In OTL McCain called on Democrats, Republicans and Vegetarians to vote for him in the primary. (Bush attacked him for it...and it galled me when he praised the Democratic Governor of NC.) Second, while SC rewards candidates who go to the right, it most certainly does not reward the far right. David Duke faired poorly in SC in 1992. Buchanan lost to Dole in 1996. Alan Keyes finished third in 2000. The only exceptions I can think of are Huckabee and Paul in 2008. They lost to McCain, but they trounced Guliani.

 

[Workable Goblin]

I remember another TL where McCain beat Bush in SC (since Rove died in the '90s). So far, Boston's been nuked

 

[statichaos]

The simple solution would be to have someone else hire Rove. Even McCain. Doesn't mean that he needs to take Rove's advice. He just needs to recall LBJ saying that he'd rather have hoover "Inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in."

 

[Atreus]

You can expect ITTL, as OTL, the mega-dittoheads who make up the Republican primary voting base will swallow it all, hook line and sinker, rod reel and pole.

Careful. I don't think that I'm going to report this, but this is completely uncalled for and very provocative.

And a mcCain win in SC almost seals the deal. Can he sling mud with Karl Rove? No. But winning South Carolina builds his momentum even further, and puts him squarely in command. Bush may hang around, but to stay relevant he is going to have to be even more aggressive. And these sorts of tactics get dangerous; a perception may very well build of Bush as a desperate, fear-mongering candidate. This has undone more than a few aggressive campaigns, and if this is all that Bush and Rove have to work with, they've lost the campaign.

 

[MerryPrankster]

There's actually a McCain-wins-SC TL on this board where McCain does something resembling Nixon's "Checkers" speech and addresses all of Rove's claims, particularly the illegitimate black child part, and then rips Rove a new one.

He ends up winning SC.

 

[usertron2020]

My Bad

True, McCain wouldn't go truly negative against Bush. But, Bush would be hypocritical against him. Were McCain to win in 2000, you can bet that Bush would be hyping the poll closings up and accusing McCain (as he did IOTL) of going negative. (In OTL, he called a mailing comparing their positions on Social Security an "attack ad".)

As for the SC primary, most of what has been said is spot-on. However, it worth noting two things. First, SC's primary isn't closed. In OTL McCain called on Democrats, Republicans and Vegetarians to vote for him in the primary. (Bush attacked him for it...and it galled me when he praised the Democratic Governor of NC.) Second, while SC rewards candidates who go to the right, it most certainly does not reward the far right. David Duke faired poorly in SC in 1992. Buchanan lost to Dole in 1996. Alan Keyes finished third in 2000. The only exceptions I can think of are Huckabee and Paul in 2008. They lost to McCain, but they trounced Guliani.

You're right about SC's primary. My bad. I said viable candidates. Buchanan's year was 1992. He wasn't going to bottle lightening twice. All the other candidates you listed were also-rans. Even Guiliani. He had this foolish plan of not even running until Florida. Didn't work. But thanks for filling me in about SC. I guess it just shows how wacked out rightwing that state is when you have these kind of results even WITH an open primary.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Not "whacked out", but rather McCain failed to respond quickly enough to Mr. Rove. The religious right was aiming for McCain ever since he called Jerry and Pat "agents of intolerance" (understatement of the year).

 

[usertron2020]

"Fair and Balanced"-Barf.

Not "whacked out", but rather McCain failed to respond quickly enough to Mr. Rove. The religious right was aiming for McCain ever since he called Jerry and Pat "agents of intolerance" (understatement of the year).

Impossible to keep up with Rove, esp. with hate radio and an entire 24/7 cable news network dedicated to your destruction. No, I don't mean C-SPAN!

 

[MerryPrankster]

Impossible to keep up with Rove, esp. with hate radio and an entire 24/7 cable news network dedicated to your destruction. No, I don't mean C-SPAN!

"Hate radio"? Do you all really believe that?

Father Coughlin was genuine hate radio. Rush Limbaugh, Neal Boortz, etc. aren't.

Hell, Boortz doesn't really like the Religious Right very much and they return the favor.

And had Fox taken sides at this point? Furthermore, even if they had, what's to stop them from switching if McCain wins SC and Bush looks like a has-been?

Honestly, Rove is not some omnipotent evil god.

 

[Orville_third]

There's actually a McCain-wins-SC TL on this board where McCain does something resembling Nixon's "Checkers" speech and addresses all of Rove's claims, particularly the illegitimate black child part, and then rips Rove a new one.

He ends up winning SC.

I'm working on one where McCain compares Bush to Clinton. Bush issues an ad in response (which allegedly turned the campaign around in OTL...though not from my POV)...but the ad never airs. Why? You'll just have to read my timeline when I finally get around to it!

(Alternatively, you can read the 2000 election review issue of Newsweek or Stuart Stevens's "The Big Enchilada" for what happened in OTL that nearly prevented the commercial from airing.)

 

[Orville_third]

Not "whacked out", but rather McCain failed to respond quickly enough to Mr. Rove. The religious right was aiming for McCain ever since he called Jerry and Pat "agents of intolerance" (understatement of the year).

Actually, he said that AFTER the SC primary. (I fully agree with him.)

 

[NKVD]

If Karl Rove were to, say, have a heart attack or get run over by a truck, McCain could not only win SC, but the entire primary. That little fuck was the whole reason he lost the nomination.