What if the Byzantine Empire lasted longer?

[Nuraghe]

If you really want and desire the Byzantine empire to survive longer, how about making sure that Justianian ignores taking back the land which belonged under the Roman Empire, and focuses on making sure the plague does not ravage through Byzantine land, and that Persia does not invade Byzantine provinces. You have a nice pod, of course, but you see, the Fourth Crusade was mainly called on Byzantium because of differences between the Greek Orthodox and the Roman Catholic branches of Christianity, and because of Venetian greed.

In reality it could also be fine, a Roman Empire post the Justinian reconquests, especially if Justin II and Tiberius II manage to obtain an earlier peace with Persia compared to Otl, allowing Maurice to have much better state finances and perhaps with Chosroes II still indebted to him, to concentrate again on the western front ( Italy and the Balkans first and foremost, with the fights against the Moors immediately following ) with the right calm, even if I would just make a small change, that is, immediately form an alliance with the kings Merovingians, in function anti-Lombard, Visigoth and Avar ( since they are common enemies of both Rome and the Franks ) but also the mere fact of making the Gothic wars less devastating and expensive, decreeing a single commander in office instead of the chaos of Otl, not separating Sicily and Sardinia from the Italian province as has historically happened ( a terrible choice, which weakened the Roman position in the region especially after the arrival of the Lombards ) it should allow the Empire to be in a better situation than in Otl

certainly avoiding the 4th crusade would be a possible solution, but it would not solve the problems that grip Byzantium : the internal ones which are the deep internal divisions, with pushes for independence ( as in Cyprus, Trebizond and Bulgaria, all crises occurred well before the fateful 1204 ) the economic weakness resulting from the competition of Italian traders ( who are clearly superior to their Rhomanois counterparts ) is finally the deep hatred that is forming between the Latins and Byzantium, after a century of hostile cross-propaganda, profound xenophobia on the part of the aristocracy and clergy of Constantinople, and hostile acts on both sides parts ( the massacre of the Latins of 1182 and the numerous Norman-Roman wars and the skirmishes during the various crusades ) therefore it would be quite complicated to resolve or mitigate these problems, even with a Pod that allows Manuel I to live a few more years, so to allow Alexios II to come of age and then succeed his father

 

[Silver01]

If you really want and desire the Byzantine empire to survive longer, how about making sure that Justianian ignores taking back the land which belonged under the Roman Empire, and focuses on making sure the plague does not ravage through Byzantine land,

he cant the plague likely was so bad because of climatic change of the winter of 536 and 540 because of geological issues that caused the late antique ice age justinian cant prevent the plague nor can he focus on stopping it

and that Persia does not invade Byzantine provinces.

this is imo is quite plausible just fully support Khosrow I when kavad died and he got in to a civil war and do not provoke him, in otl by all our sources Khosrow II did see Maurice as his friend maybe it would not be to that extend but if Justinian thorws his full support for khosrow I against this brother, he migth see justinian in similar way

 

[Silver01]

In reality it could also be fine, a Roman Empire post the Justinian reconquests, especially if Justin II and Tiberius II manage to obtain an earlier peace with Persia compared to Otl, allowing Maurice to have much better state finances and perhaps with Chosroes II still indebted to him, to concentrate again on the western front

really the only thing you have to do is keep Justin II alive insane but alive since Tiberius did really spend money like no tomorrow with justin II still alive sophia would limit tiberius spending

( Italy and the Balkans first and foremost, with the fights against the Moors immediately following ) with the right calm, even if I would just make a small change, that is, immediately form an alliance with the kings Merovingians, in function anti-Lombard, Visigoth and Avar ( since they are common enemies of both Rome and the Franks ) but also the mere fact of making the Gothic wars less devastating and expensive, decreeing a single commander in office instead of the chaos of Otl, not separating Sicily and Sardinia from the Italian province as has historically happened ( a terrible choice, which weakened the Roman position in the region especially after the arrival of the Lombards ) it should allow the Empire to be in a better situation than in Otl

by 600 ad the avar khagante suffered a series of defeats that it never fully recovered from so the balkans were already secured but i dont know how well maurice idea giving africa and italy to his second oldest son would have ended like

 

[Nuraghe]

really the only thing you have to do is keep Justin II alive insane but alive since Tiberius did really spend money like no tomorrow with justin II still alive sophia would limit tiberius spending

by 600 ad the avar khagante suffered a series of defeats that it never fully recovered from so the balkans were already secured but i dont know how well maurice idea giving africa and italy to his second oldest son would have ended like

As regards the idea of assigning Maurice's second son to Caesar of the West, it depends on how the Italian situation develops in the previous decades, whether as Otl with the Exarchate ( or province of Italy ) limited only to the Pentapolis ( the only area where the direct power of the exarch is quite present in Otl ), Roman duchy ( provided that the policies of Constantinople do not antagonize the Pope ) and the Apennine corridor, then the situation remains very bad, not to say disastrous, but otherwise with a Italian province that can immediately count on the resources of the islands ( Sardinia and especially Sicily ) then I believe that the situation is not irrecoverable, it would certainly be complicated, but being able to maintain control of Benevento ( so as to facilitate communications between Calabria and Puglia, Naples, Rome and Ravenna ) could be quite feasible (without forgetting that technically even Genoa ( fell into the hands of the Lombards in 625s ) would be easy to defend thanks to the navy which can be raised more than in Otl, now if these changes were made immediately after the end of the Gothic wars ( as well as carrying out maintenance work on the fortresses of the limes of the Julian Alps ), there is a good chance of seeing the Roman position in Italy not so disastrous

 

[Silver01]

that can immediately count on the resources of the islands ( Sardinia and especially Sicily ) then I believe that the situation is not irrecoverable,

well the younger brothers were supposed to be little cesars if we go by an interpretation of Theophylact Simocatta but you cant take his word for it and its just as likely the split was intented to be just east west so tiberius would be getting all of the west including africa

 

[Nuraghe]

well the younger brothers were supposed to be little cesars if we go by an interpretation of Theophylact Simocatta but you cant take his word for it and its just as likely the split was intented to be just east west so tiberius would be getting all of the west including africa

In fact we know ( unfortunately ) very little about the plans that Maurice had for this division of the empire, but if we consider that the alleged Caesar would have all the western possessions at his disposal ( which in addition to Africa and Italy, also included southern Spain ) then it is likely that this resurrected WRE would be forced to become a thalassocracy in order to defend and govern its dominions, furthermore if I am not mistaken, Maurice had not toyed with the idea of taking advantage of a civil war in Frankia to create an exarchate of Gaul ( which I think would have been a mistake, because it would have antagonized the Romans' only possible ally in Western Europe ) but in the end I discard the whole idea as a useless waste of resources

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Justinian reconquering Italy made sense; look at how the Normans went from an annoyance to an existential threat in the 11th century.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Justinian reconquering Italy made sense; look at how the Normans went from an annoyance to an existential threat in the 11th century.

Retaining Southern Italy is enough to prevent the Normans' rise (or retaining a lot of influence), there is no reason to fight for Northern Italy with all of its contenders for no reason.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

Retaining Southern Italy is enough to prevent the Normans' rise (or retaining a lot of influence), there is no reason to fight for Northern Italy with all of its contenders for no reason.

True, but during Justinian's time north Italy was still worth having and within their ability to get and keep.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

True, but during Justinian's time north Italy was still worth having and within their ability to get and keep.

However due to the empire being overstretched they couldn't keep it for long, in the end their conquest of Italy only brought constant warfare with the Ostrogoths and later the Lombards, removing it would help the empire significantly.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

However due to the empire being overstretched they couldn't keep it for long, in the end their conquest of Italy only brought constant warfare with the Ostrogoths and later the Lombards, removing it would help the empire significantly.

It's entirely possible to avoid the widespread war that devastated Italy while still conquering it entirely, or at least most of it. Perhaps Belisarius listens to Justinian and cuts a deal with the Ostrogoths, leaving a rump Ostrogothic state north of the Po river as a buffer.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

It's entirely possible to avoid the widespread war that devastated Italy while still conquering it entirely, or at least most of it. Perhaps Belisarius listens to Justinian and cuts a deal with the Ostrogoths, leaving a rump Ostrogothic state north of the Po river as a buffer.

AFAIK Justinian never asked Belisarius to cut a deal with the Ostrogoths and even if he did and it had been accepted (a big if) I doubt the Ostrogoths wouldn't try to rebel later like they did IOTL.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

AFAIK Justinian never asked Belisarius to cut a deal with the Ostrogoths and even if he did and it had been accepted (a big if) I doubt the Ostrogoths wouldn't try to rebel later like they did IOTL.

I'll have to track down the source for it, since I just heard someone say it.

 

[Nuraghe]

It's entirely possible to avoid the widespread war that devastated Italy while still conquering it entirely, or at least most of it. Perhaps Belisarius listens to Justinian and cuts a deal with the Ostrogoths, leaving a rump Ostrogothic state north of the Po river as a buffer.

In reality it would be enough to allow Belisarius to have a free hand in the management of the army during his Italian campaign ( instead of having the command contested by rival generals ) in practice it would be necessary for Justinian not to listen to Theodora in political matters this time, this fact alone would allow a complete submission of the Goths 2 decades earlier than OTL, also avoiding the Gothic counter-offensive with Totila, which was one of the major causes that prolonged the conflict in the peninsula and devastated the region tremendously ( in particular the cities of Milan, Naples and Rome, who suffered enormously ) this would allow Rome to easily repay the costs of the war in the coming decades ( especially if the fortifications of the Alpine Limes are not damaged by the war and then not renovated like Otl, which could facilitate the defense of Italy )

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

In reality it would be enough to allow Belisarius to have a free hand in the management of the army during his Italian campaign ( instead of having the command contested by rival generals ) in practice it would be necessary for Justinian not to listen to Theodora in political matters this time, this fact alone would allow a complete submission of the Goths 2 decades earlier than OTL, also avoiding the Gothic counter-offensive with Totila, which was one of the major causes that prolonged the conflict in the peninsula and devastated the region tremendously ( in particular the cities of Milan, Naples and Rome, who suffered enormously ) this would allow Rome to easily repay the costs of the war in the coming decades ( especially if the fortifications of the Alpine Limes are not damaged by the war and then not renovated like Otl, which could facilitate the defense of Italy )

Oh I fully agree with that, but I also heard somewhere that Justinian was trying to negotiate with the Ostrogoths to give them a rump kingdom north of the Po river, but Belisarius just went ahead and conquered them anyway, and then he got sent east without pacifying Italy.

 

[Nuraghe]

In reality it would be enough to allow Belisarius to have a free hand in the management of the army during his Italian campaign ( instead of having the command contested by rival generals ) in practice it would be necessary for Justinian not to listen to Theodora in political matters this time, this fact alone would allow a complete submission of the Goths 2 decades earlier than OTL, also avoiding the Gothic counter-offensive with Totila, which was one of the major causes that prolonged the conflict in the peninsula and devastated the region tremendously ( in particular the cities of Milan, Naples and Rome, who suffered enormously ) this would allow Rome to easily repay the costs of the war in the coming decades ( especially if the fortifications of the Alpine Limes are not damaged by the war and then not renovated like Otl, which could facilitate the defense of Italy )

in reality I think that also avoiding the last Roman - Sassanid war, caused by the dynastic chaos resulting from the death of Maurice or the anarchy of the 20 years could slightly improve the overall position of the Empire compared to OTL, so there are many scenarios that allow Rome to find itself in a less dramatic situation, even after Justinian's conquests, after all, the Romans have always demonstrated a capacity for resilience bordering on the absurd, so it is not unlikely to see a new expansionist era, once the internal political situation has been re-established

 

[Silver01]

Justinian reconquering Italy made sense; look at how the Normans went from an annoyance to an existential threat in the 11th century.

It's just the way he did it was terrible tho I

 

[Nuraghe]

It's just the way he did it was terrible tho I

There are two of us who think so, that campaign was truly poorly managed, particularly in the final stages of the conflict and in the following decades, which resulted in convincing a large portion of the locals to prefer the "barbarian" government to the Roman one, or to support the Pope's aspirations for independence from Constantinople, given that he was the only imperial actor who actually did something to help the population and was also present on site