Sweden doesn't enter the Thirty Years' War, so what do the Habsburgs and their allies do?

[Derek Pullem]

title is:

Sweden doesn't enter the Thirty Years' War,​

are the Swedes in or out?

They don't enter the Thirty Years War as IOTL pre-1630. Doesn't mean the threat of them entering doesn't exist.

Brandenburg is neutral at this time as well. If the Swedes don't intervene it may suit the Imperials t leave the North German fringe alone.

If the PoD is that Sweden will never intervene and the Imperials know that then most of Germany and mainland Denmark is overrun. But that is unknowable for the Imperials

 

[Jürgen]

We really need oversight of what will happen, because just because Sweden doesn’t intervene doesn’t mean the Catholics have won and can kill or expel all the Protestants. The emperor still need to deal with the Protestant princes and large Protestant populations. We also have to discuss what happens outside the HRE, Swedish intervention pushed Denmark into an alliance with the emperor and the destructive war with Sweden (1643-45). Sweden got a lot riches and a big head out of the conflict, which likely played a role in their later conflict with Poland.

So we need foremost to look at what will happen in the empire, and next we need to look effects on the rest of Europe.

 

[Math]

@Nuraghe

 

[raharris1973]

They don't enter the Thirty Years War as IOTL pre-1630. Doesn't mean the threat of them entering doesn't exist.

Brandenburg is neutral at this time as well. If the Swedes don't intervene it may suit the Imperials t leave the North German fringe alone.

If the PoD is that Sweden will never intervene and the Imperials know that then most of Germany and mainland Denmark is overrun. But that is unknowable for the Imperials

Brandenburg was neutral? Had it been neutral an unravaged in all earlier phases of the war, only getting wrecked *after*Swedish intervention- I’ve seen maps showing Brandenburg and Mecklenburg being particularly hard hit in the 30YW with population losses. If Brandenburg is neutral in the wars and Imperials win bigger in points south, Brandenburg might get wanked up by gathering in more Protestant refugees

Though @Jurgen is correct, the devil is in the details. Catholic/Imperial victory, even restitutions of many Church properties, does not necessarily mean broad scale Protestant expulsions or outmigrations.

 

[Nuraghe]

For a variety of reasons, Gustavus II Adolphus decided not to go to war with the Holy Roman Empire in 1630: Richelieu might fail to establish peace between Moscow and Stockholm, or Gustavus II Adolphus might die prematurely.
With Denmark defeated and the French having no other adversary to finance, the Imperials find themselves having won the war within the Empire.

In this situation, how was the Edict of Restitution applied in the north of the Empire? Ferdinand II seemed more than motivated to bring back Church property secularized during the 16th century. However, he risked alienating the Protestant princes of the north. But what could the latter do without Sweden or other foreign support? How is the Habsburg/Imperial/Catholic presence evolving in the north of the Empire?

What becomes of Wallenstein in this situation? At this time, he was administering Mecklenburg and was still more than loyal to the Emperor. Although not very popular at court, his opponents did nothing to disgrace him, since he was still the undefeated soldier who had brought victory to the northern part of the Empire. But his disproportionate armies could still terrify the Emperor and the other minor princes, and his lack of political skill could yet cost him his position.

How is the conflict between Spain and the United Provinces developing? With most Protestant princes crushed, the Emperor could help his cousins in the Netherlands. Although victory could be costly, with most of their enemies already out of the picture the Habsburgs might be greedy and not seek to negotiate but rather to obliterate. Is a total Spanish victory after such a late period still possible, or is it a mirage? What impact would an early demise of the United Provinces and its trading empire have on Europe and the world?

What is the France of Louis XIII and Richelieu doing in this situation? Their support for Denmark was unsuccessful, and Sweden was not interested in intervening in the Holy Empire. The Habsburgs seem undefeated, and Richelieu has long hesitated to intervene directly. But with a possible defeat of the United Provinces and Spain also on the verge of triumph, the danger of being encircled and next in line is serious.

What about the rest of Europe? Poland-Lithuania and Russia with Sweden, the Ottomans in Hungary and England?

With so many lives spared in Europe in a thirty-year war that ended early, what impact will this have on European demographics?

I've only skimmed the surface of the vast questions all this raises, but I'm ready to discuss them with you in greater detail.

@alexmilman @Nuraghe @Emperor Constantine

excuse me if I'm only now arriving in this discussion, but unfortunately today was busy, I note that the topic has many points that would have favored the realization of an ambitious project that had been circulating in the Habsburg courts since the 1st Schmalkand War, and that in the early stages of the 30YW was revived, now to quote myself :

in practice, while in Vienna there was discussion with Ferdinand II on the most correct way to achieve peace with the princes in 1627 ( note the year, exactly coinciding with the idealization of the restoration edict ) the possibility of further developing the system was resurrected confessional that was created in the Peace of Augsburg, a massive territorial and religious reorganization was envisaged, with the formation of a duchy/kingdom in the North of the Reich, exclusively for the Lutherans of the empire ( where they would be free to practice their faith with blessing of the Emperor himself, in practice they wanted to relegate them to a limited area, which would act as a possible buffer against Denmark and Sweden ) furthermore the princely office of that specific region would be elective ( so as to encourage in the principles of the corpus evangelicum greater competition for obtain imperial favor and fuel hostility between them, given that in the plans devised in Vienna, this election would have been recognized only through the approval of the Emperor ) another particular point of this ( crazy ) idea had already been suggested previously by James I, in one of his peace proposals, where he proposed the formation of a duchy exclusively for the Calvinists ( around Otl Hesse and the Palatinate ) for his nephews (1) clearly anti-French function, this project as well as various small changes in the minor episcopal principalities and in Swabia, this was also a way, according to them , to strengthen imperial power within the HRE administration, as well as limit the feeling of hostility of the Protestant minorities ( by showing leniency towards them ), towards a victorious Vienna, so this would obviously be followed by a reform of the law constituent laws, including the Golden Bull ) but Ferdinand strangely rejected it, unfortunately considering it impracticable in its current state


1) technically also suggested the creation of a buffer state for a Stuart cadet that would divide the Habsburg possessions from France, provided that he became Catholic ( which was a requirement imposed by the Habsburgs and Rome, in order to take this proposal seriously )

 

[Jürgen]

Brandenburg was neutral? Had it been neutral an unravaged in all earlier phases of the war, only getting wrecked *after*Swedish intervention- I’ve seen maps showing Brandenburg and Mecklenburg being particularly hard hit in the 30YW with population losses. If Brandenburg is neutral in the wars and Imperials win bigger in points south, Brandenburg might get wanked up by gathering in more Protestant refugees

Though @Jurgen is correct, the devil is in the details. Catholic/Imperial victory, even restitutions of many Church properties, does not necessarily mean broad scale Protestant expulsions or outmigrations.

Brandenburg, Mecklenburg and Pomerania are believed to have lost 2/3 of their population. Interesting while these states was overwhelming German at the time, this was likely when most of the last Wendish population ended up going into a spiral toward extinction.

In case of Brandenburg, there’s also some interesting aspects, the Pomeranian ducal line is going to go extinct and Brandenburg had a good claim on it. Of course Denmark had a claim to principality of Rügen (the post-Great Northen War Swedish Pomerania) and if we look at familiar inheritance the minor House of Croÿ had the best claim. So it raise the question will the emperor decides to support the claim of Brandenburg, Croÿ or Denmark (unlikely), or will he push for the duchy being divided. To make this worse Prussia is also in a succession conflict over Jülich-Berg-Cleve where they have a clear best claim.

So if the emperor support the Brandenburg claim he risk creating a Brandenburgian powerhouse, the sole member of the Pomeranian branch of Croÿ in OTL didn’t put up much of a fight and sold his possessions and claims to the Hohenzollern and spend the rest of his life governor of different Hohenzollern domains. While it’s bad to create Brandenburgian powerhouse, it may be worse to give Danes a stronger position in the empire. So the last solution could simply be to divide Pomerania.

 

[raharris1973]

Brandenburg, Mecklenburg and Pomerania are believed to have lost 2/3 of their population.

So were the people in this area all killed post 1630 and in the wake of Gustavus Adolphus's intervention?

Did the Swedes *eat* them all?

Mein Gott!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ein Berliner, Zwei Berliner, Drei Berliner.

Ein Lubecker, Zwei Lubecker.......

Ein Rostocker, Funf Rostocker.... yum, yum

 

[Jürgen]

So were the people in this area all killed post 1630 and in the wake of Gustavus Adolphus's intervention?

Did the Swedes *eat* them all?

Mein Gott!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ein Berliner, Zwei Berliner, Drei Berliner.

Ein Lubecker, Zwei Lubecker.......

Ein Rostocker, Funf Rostocker.... yum, yum

Armies lived of the land in this period, which was why they were so destructive for the civilian population.

 

[Derek Pullem]

So were the people in this area all killed post 1630 and in the wake of Gustavus Adolphus's intervention?

Did the Swedes *eat* them all?

Mein Gott!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ein Berliner, Zwei Berliner, Drei Berliner.

Ein Lubecker, Zwei Lubecker.......

Ein Rostocker, Funf Rostocker.... yum, yum

Brandenburg was "neutral" in 1630 (actually it was more like "please leave me alone"). Brandenburg had been neutral earlier but Wallenstein and the Imperials overran it anyway and compelled Brandenburg to align with the Emperor. The Swedes then appeared and to avoid being ransacked again the Brandenburgers claimed neutrality only for the the Swedes to insist on first access and then an alliance which forced the Brandenburgers back into the war. Towards the end of the war Brandenburg again tried to go neutral and mostly succeeded.

So it's not just the Swedes that caused the devastation - Brandenburg was doing a fair impression of Belgium during the Thirty Years War i.e. everyone's favourite motorway service station.

Without the direct Swedish intervention but with a Swedish presence the 1627 treaty with the Imperials is likely to be observed by both sides - Imperial garrisons billeted in Brandenburg. If the Swedes don't go to Pomerania then there is no reason for Wallenstein to withdraw his garrisons unless there are revolts elsewhere (always possible) or the French intervene. So no Swedes is slightly better for Brandenburg but not much.

 

[raharris1973]

Brandenburg was "neutral" in 1630 (actually it was more like "please leave me alone"). Brandenburg had been neutral earlier but Wallenstein and the Imperials overran it anyway and compelled Brandenburg to align with the Emperor. The Swedes then appeared and to avoid being ransacked again the Brandenburgers claimed neutrality only for the the Swedes to insist on first access and then an alliance which forced the Brandenburgers back into the war. Towards the end of the war Brandenburg again tried to go neutral and mostly succeeded.

So it's not just the Swedes that caused the devastation - Brandenburg was doing a fair impression of Belgium during the Thirty Years War i.e. everyone's favourite motorway service station.

Without the direct Swedish intervention but with a Swedish presence the 1627 treaty with the Imperials is likely to be observed by both sides - Imperial garrisons billeted in Brandenburg. If the Swedes don't go to Pomerania then there is no reason for Wallenstein to withdraw his garrisons unless there are revolts elsewhere (always possible) or the French intervene. So no Swedes is slightly better for Brandenburg but not much.

OK, so the Brandenburgers were getting looted , pillaged, and infected by lousy and sickly and rapey soldiers for some years before 1630 and the Swedes joined in.

 

[alexmilman]

Brandenburg was neutral? Had it been neutral an unravaged in all earlier phases of the war, only getting wrecked *after*Swedish intervention- I’ve seen maps showing Brandenburg and Mecklenburg being particularly hard hit in the 30YW with population losses. If Brandenburg is neutral in the wars and Imperials win bigger in points south, Brandenburg might get wanked up by gathering in more Protestant refugees

Though @Jurgen is correct, the devil is in the details. Catholic/Imperial victory, even restitutions of many Church properties, does not necessarily mean broad scale Protestant expulsions or outmigrations.

Of course. And if the things proceed along the OTL lines (minus Sweden), the imperial side has its own problem called “army”. After dismissal W transferred command to Tilly but he obviously did not have intention to supply him with the funds (which were not Emperor’s money) so the whole system started crumbling and deteriorating to the looting. Sack of Magdeburg would not happen due to the absence of the Swedish factors but W’s financing system is gone and the newly-created imperial army will most probably start disintegrating due to the lack of pay.
With Mecklenburg still administered by W, Brandenburg is neutral and ambitious naval plans dead, there is no reason for emperor to even look at that corner. The territories in question could do just fine even without a massive immigration.

 

[Hastings]

Yeah, and also frankly the Swedes seem to have been especially bad occupiers just in general. The Swedish phase of the 30 years war was the worst part. Similarly they were the worst part of the Deluge especially adjusted for time/forces used. Then then Great Northern War was probably the last European war pre-French Revolution with a civilian death toll >1 million. Pretty much everything within a few hundred miles of the Baltic to its south and east saw a major depopulation event 1630-1721. The parts of these conflicts that can fairly attributed to Sweden equal a death toll a couple times higher than the Swedish Empire's population at peak. They were impressive in how they punched above their weight, but they weren't exactly improving the neigborhood...

 

[Jürgen]

Yeah, and also frankly the Swedes seem to have been especially bad occupiers just in general. The Swedish phase of the 30 years war was the worst part. Similarly they were the worst part of the Deluge especially adjusted for time/forces used. Then then Great Northern War was probably the last European war pre-French Revolution with a civilian death toll >1 million. Pretty much everything within a few hundred miles of the Baltic to its south and east saw a major depopulation event 1630-1721. The parts of these conflicts that can fairly attributed to Sweden equal a death toll a couple times higher than the Swedish Empire's population at peak. They were impressive in how they punched above their weight, but they weren't exactly improving the neigborhood...

They created a bunch centralized states, mostly because their neighbors rose up to oppose them, Prussia would likely never have turned into the Prussia we know and love without the Brandenburgian elector having to centralize the state to oppose the Swedes. Denmark would not have become one of the most centralized and autocratic states without them and I suspect that Russia would also have developed differently without them. Sweden was simply a forge which either harden or shattered their neighbors.

I suspect that without Sweden Prussia would simply have turned into a Protestant version of Bavaria, important but lacking the might to become a great power. Denmark would a followed the standard road toward absolutism one which would have left a stronger nobility which would pretty much rule their own land as petty princes, but it would also be bigger Denmark which didn’t see OTL depopulation.

 

[alexmilman]

They created a bunch centralized states, mostly because their neighbors rose up to oppose them, Prussia would likely never have turned into the Prussia we know and love without the Brandenburgian elector having to centralize the state to oppose the Swedes. Denmark would not have become one of the most centralized and autocratic states without them and I suspect that Russia would also have developed differently without them.

This is a very tricky issue. As a centralized absolutist state Tsardom developed without them. It even started massive reforms without them being triggered by the Time of Troubles and the following wars with the PLC. Strictly speaking, in the GNW Sweden was formally a victim of the attack, not an aggressor. But specifics of the Russian development during and immediately after the GNW were, of course, strongly impacted by this event. General inefficiency of Peter’s mobilization and conduct of the war was costly in people and money and simultaneously going expensive and inefficient (as everything Peter was doing) civilian projects cut Russian population by something like 20% (AFAIK, nobody can tell for sure) and put country into a fiscal crisis.

Of course, it can be argued that nobody forced Peter to go into the war to which he was completely unprepared or to run massive projects by the worst case scenarios, etc. And it also can be argued that most of the devastation in the Baltic Provinces had been caused by the Russian troops.

However, we can easily blame GA for the future disasters because, for the purely fiscal reasons (to get the custom dues) he cut off Tsardom’s access to the Baltic Sea forcing it to use the Swedish-held ports (on quite reasonable conditions) for imports/exports. Of course, to that a counter-argument would be that Novgorod and then Tsardom had such an access for centuries never bothering to build a port there (wisdom of Peter’s choice of a specific marshy and regularly flooded spot for his port’s site is irrelevant). Anyway, before they were using others’ ports on their free will and after GA had been forced to use them, which made a lot of a difference, at least morally. 😂😂

But GA and his immediate followers were, indeed, quite destructive.