Iran-Contra and the Fall of Ronald Reagan

From ABC News raw footage from Penonome, Panama, 4:30PM EST, January 3rd, 1990


Beth Nissen, ABC News: We're here in Penonome on anonymous tip we received while our crew was on location in Santiago. They said to meet here for further information on General Noriega who has been at large since the US intervention began.​

The sound of squealing tires cuts through the conversation as a truck drives down the street with chains dragging behind.

Nissen: Oh my God...​

A roaring crowd surges into view in pursuit of the truck which is dragging the corpse of Manuel Noriega by a pair of heavy chains wrapped around the bumper.

Nissen: Come on we have to get this!​

Camera and crew pile into a van as they take off. After a few moments of fumbling the camera gets a good view of the crowd as the crew attempts to catch up. There are shots of people throwing rocks, feces, and other objects at Noriega's increasingly battered body.

Nissen: This is Beth Nissen with ABC News reporting live in Penonome, Panama where General Manuel Noriega has been found dead. We are on the scene now where a huge crowd is dragging his body through the streets.​



January 3rd, 1990: General Manuel Noriega's mutilated body is dumped outside of a safehouse in Penonome where he was taking refuge. The corpse is dragged through the streets by a vengeful crowd before US Army forces can retrieve the mangled remains. The spectacle is broadcast on CBS, ABC, and NBC primetime that evening.(1)


January 10th, 1990: Time Warner is formed from the merger of Time Inc. and Warner Communications Inc.


January 11th, 1990: 300,000 Lithuanians take to the streets demanding independence from the Soviet Union.


January 12th, 1990: In Cartagena, Colombia, a summit is held between President Gary Hart, President of Bolivia Jaime Paz Zamora, President of Colombia Virgilio Barco Vargas, and President of Peru Alan García. The leaders pledge additional cooperation in fighting international drug trafficking with the United States pledging intelligence, military, and law enforcement assets to assist in operations against drug cartels.


January 15th, 1990: The National Assembly of Bulgaria votes to end one party rule by the Bulgarian Communist Party. In East Berlin thousands storm the Stasi headquarters in an attempt to view their government records. They are astonished when they discover how limited the documentation actually is; popular opinion in the GDR was that the Stasi had a file on every citizen. In spite of this it is easily the most comprehensive secret police archive of any Eastern Bloc nation.


January 16th, 1990: President Hart, with special envoy Jimmy Carter and Secretary of State Warren Christopher flanking him, holds a press conference announcing a new breakthrough in foreign affairs. After months of discussion, meetings, and unofficial contacts lead by Carter the governments of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, and Turkey have agreed to meet in Bahrain for a US-mediated conference to ensure the stability of the region. The Soviet Union, NATO, Israel, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Japan are invited to send observers to the conference. The conference is to begin on February 8th that year.


January 20th, 1990: Soviet troops occupy Baku, Azerbaijan, under the state of emergency decree issued by Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev and kill over 130 and wound over 700 protesters for national independence. Prosper Avril's military government of Haiti declares a state of siege, under which it suspends civil liberties, imposes censorship, and arrests political opponents.


January 22nd, 1990: The League of Communists of Yugoslavia votes to give up its monopoly on power.


January 25th, 1990: The Burns' Day storm kills 97 in northwestern Europe.


January 28th, 1990: The Polish United Workers' Party votes to dissolve itself and reorganize itself as the Social Democracy of the Republic of Poland.


January 29th, 1990: The trial of Joseph Hazelwood, former skipper of the Exxon Valdez, begins in Anchorage, Alaska. He is accused of negligence that resulted in America's second worst oil spill to date. Prosecutors claim he was intoxicated at the time of the accident. Central to the prosecution's case are reports from co-workers and superiors that he has a serious drinking problem which saw him recommended for shore duty. In Haiti the government's declaration of a state of siege is lifted.


January 31st, 1990: President Gary Hart gives his first State of the Union address proposing a joint demilitarization, peacekeeping, and reconstruction effort with the Soviet Union to assist in the democratic transitions taking place in Eastern Europe and, “build a lasting and just global peace.” After the Soviet Union, the biggest topic of the night is the Drug War followed by the economy and the environment. He promises stern, decisive action to end drug trafficking, “at its source”. He finishes arguing the American economy, while suffering from recent downturns, is strong and can become stronger by becoming “leaner and cleaner”. In Moscow the first McDonald's in the city opens after ten months of construction.


February 7th, 1990: The Communist Party of the Soviet Union votes to end its monopoly of power, clearing the way for multiparty elections. In the Tajik Soviet Socialist Republic, rioting breaks out against the settlement of Armenian refugees there.


February 8th, 1990: The Bahrain Conference on Middle Eastern Security begins. The first matter raised is the question of recent Kuwaiti slant-drilling into Iraqi reserves by the Iraqi representative. They hope to find favor from the Americans, in spite of the recent cessation of aid, but are surprised when the US delegation remains neutral and noncommittal on the matter. The Saudi delegation, for their part, raises the question of security of the flow of oil from the Gulf fearing any future conflict could cause damage far in excess of what was seen in the recent Iran-Iraq War.


February 12th, 1990: Representatives of NATO and the Warsaw Pact meet in Ottawa for an "Open Skies" conference.


February 13th, 1990: An agreement is reached for a two-stage plan to reunite Germany.


February 14th, 1990: The Pale Blue Dot photograph of Earth is sent back from the Voyager 1 probe after completing its primary mission, from around 3.5 billion miles away.

February 16th, 1990: The NIcaraguan government accepts the final surrender of the last surviving armed contra forces. US logistical, intelligence, and medical support would be decisive in the final engagements against the isolated and unpopular contras.

February 24th, 1990: The Lithuanian Soviet Socialist Republic holds the first democratic election in the history of the Soviet Union.


February 26th, 1990: The USSR agrees to withdraw all 73,500 troops from Czechoslovakia by July, 1991. Soviet troops also begin their withdrawal from Hungary, to be completed by June of that year.


February 27th, 1990: Exxon and its shipping company are indicted on 5 criminal counts for the Exxon Valdez oil spill.



March 1st, 1990: Steve Jackson Games is raided by the U.S. Secret Service. Sailors are sent into mourning when the Royal New Zealand Navy discontinues its daily rum ration.


March 3rd, 1990: The International Trans-Antarctica Expedition, a group of six explorer for six nations, completes the first dog sled crossing of Antarctica.


March 9th, 1990: Police seal off Brixton in South London after another night of protests against the poll tax.


March 10th, 1990: Eighteen months after seizing power in a coup, Prosper Avril is ousted in Haiti.

March 11th, 1990: Lithuania declares independence from the Soviet Union with the Act of the Re-Establishment of the State of Lithuania.


March 12th, 1990: The Gore Commission issues their report to the President and the public. In their report they confirm the earlier findings of NASA scientists and other climatologists, stating bluntly that global warming is proven scientific fact and underway. While Gore's tone is urgent he shies from open alarmism, concluding with improvements in efficiency, better wilderness management practices, and environmental protections along with pursuit of alternative energy echoing the points and conclusions of the Langkawi Declaration.


March 13th, 1990: The Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union approves changes to the Constitution of the Soviet Union to create a strong U.S.-style presidency. Mikhail Gorbachev is elected to a five-year term as the first-ever President of the Soviet Union on March 15.



March 15th, 1990: The Soviet Union announces that Lithuania's declaration of independence is invalid. In Iraq British journalist Farzad Bazoft and nurse Daphne Parish are turned over to the British consulate and ordered to leave the country. The two quickly comply(2).


March 18th, 1990: East Germany holds its first free elections.


March 19th, 1990: President Hart orders the re-installation of solar panels on the White House roof which were first put in place under President Carter but were removed during the Reagan years. From the Rose Garden he gives a press conference on the importance of environmental protections, stating his administration would do everything in its power to implement the recommendations of the Gore Commission report.


March 20th, 1990: Ferdinand Marcos's widow, Imelda Marcos, goes on trial for bribery, embezzlement, and racketeering.


March 25th, 1990: In New York City, a fire due to arson at an illegal social club called "Happy Land" kills 87. In the Hungarian parliamentary election, Hungary's first multiparty election since 1948, the Hungarian Democratic Forum carries the most seats, forming a coalition government with the Christian Democratic People's Party and the Independent Smallholders' Party.


March 30th, 1990: After its first free elections during the Soviet era on March 18, Estonia declares Soviet rule to have been illegal since 1940.


March 31st, 1990: "The Second Battle of Trafalgar": A massive anti-poll tax demonstration in Trafalgar Square, London, turns into a riot; 624 people are injured with 520 arrested. Police reported small groups dressed in heavy black clothing and masks most of whom engaged in acts of property destruction which were largely aimed at banks and major corporate offices.(3)



  1. Noriega's killers are later discovered to have been survivors of the recent October coup attempt by a group of dissatisfied junior army officers. TTL the Holy See is not convinced Noriega could mount a successful jungle campaign and denies sanctuary, forcing him to flee. The army officers found him first.
  2. OTL Bazoft was executed and Parish served 15 years in Iraqi prison.
  3. OTL 471 people were injured and 341 arrested and there were no reported black blocs.
 
Last edited:
Originally posted by LHB
February 13th, 1990: An agreement is reached for a two-stage plan to reunite Germany.

I ask myself if in TTL the reunification of Germany could be delayed and made it more in a some kind of confederation, the will of Hart to be in good relations with Gorbachev could decide to press for a more slow reunification.
Reunification never was a popular move between the european leaders (apart of Helmut Kohl naturally)
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB293/index.htm

And Gorbachev was certainly at least initially furious about Kohl attitude
http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB296/doc05.pdf

It will be interesting how the Germany reunification could be affected in TTL
 
Think we might see Jimmy Carter as Secretary of State. Wish he got the job instead of Warren Christopher. Can u still make it happen LHB?
 
Think we might see Jimmy Carter as Secretary of State. Wish he got the job instead of Warren Christopher. Can u still make it happen LHB?

It's unprecedented for an ex-president to take up a cabinet position, plus I remember reading how Carter's diplomacy revolves around going where he wants, when he wants, and getting things done, even in spite of the governments opposition.
 
So far Gorbachev being elected president is OTL, right, nothing changed? It's still very likely that being president of the SU isn't going to get him very far, and that a separate, Russian president is right around the corner. Yeltsin won that election handily IOTL; be interesting to see a reason for that to change.

I'm also very interested to see what might happen in the regions that protested but didn't gain independence IOTL, with Chechnya the foremost example but also other bits of the Caucasus, the central Soviet ethnic lands (the Bashkirs, etc.) and the Tuvans.
 
This is turning into a better world, I wonder if Hart can win reelection?

Well it's definitely going to be a different world, whether or not it's better or worse depends on where you stand. The 90s have only just gotten started, and they didn't exactly begin with the most auspicious of circumstances.

Inaki said:
I ask myself if in TTL the reunification of Germany could be delayed and made it more in a some kind of confederation, the will of Hart to be in good relations with Gorbachev could decide to press for a more slow reunification.
Reunification never was a popular move between the european leaders (apart of Helmut Kohl naturally)

Gorbachev has bigger problems to worry about at home, his closeness with the United States has NOT gone unnoticed or without response by hard-line elements in the Soviet Union. As to German re-unification I don't see why Gary Hart would oppose it or have the wherewithal to get involved; his eyes are more on the Middle East, Latin America, and the former Eastern Bloc in that order.

Nofix said:
It's unprecedented for an ex-president to take up a cabinet position, plus I remember reading how Carter's diplomacy revolves around going where he wants, when he wants, and getting things done, even in spite of the governments opposition.

This. If he was Secretary of State he wouldn't have been able to pull together the Bahrain Conference.

Expat said:
So far Gorbachev being elected president is OTL, right, nothing changed? It's still very likely that being president of the SU isn't going to get him very far, and that a separate, Russian president is right around the corner.

Yes and yes. Whether or not it's going to stay Boris Yelstin or someone else might get the job in the first place is another matter ;)

marcus_aurelius said:
And then he'd give us Vladimir Zhirinovsky. :eek::p:D

If Pellegrino Shots hadn't already done an excellent TL on the subject I'd be sorely tempted ;)

What I can say is so far things are progressing as OTL because there isn't much that Gary Hart, much like Bush Sr. OTL, can do to impact the coming collapse of the Soviet Union. At this point the train is out of control and the brakes have long since failed, what hasn't been determined is how its going to end. The greater engagement between the USSR and the US at this late stage is having impact inside the Soviet establishment and there are quite a few power players who see the recent actions by Gorbachev as surrendering the Soviet Union and its allies to the West without a fight.
 
This. If he was Secretary of State he wouldn't have been able to pull together the Bahrain Conference.

You're right, I had a bad idea, sorry. Anyway, since you're still looking for cabinet choices, how about George McGovern for Secretary of Agriculture?
 
Great TL! Glad to see it back. Good work LHB.

You're right, I had a bad idea, sorry. Anyway, since you're still looking for cabinet choices, how about George McGovern for Secretary of Agriculture?

I second the nomination!

What happened to change matters in the case of Farzad Bazoft?

OTL: Saddam was hell bent on hanging him and there were those in Britain who helped make Saddam's case for him. Part of it was the restrictions that the Thatcher government was placing on exports to Iraq.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/14/farzad-bazoft-20-years-saddam

"Saddam Hussein personally ordered the execution of the Observer journalist Farzad Bazoft to punish Margaret Thatcher and humiliate Britain, secret recordings released in Washington reveal.

"The late Iraqi leader insisted there could be no clemency for Bazoft, whom he described – wrongly – as "an Israeli spy working for the British".
Hussein also grumbled over the length of time it would take to have Bazoft hanged. "A whole month!" he exclaimed to an aide, after being told the sentence could not be carried out immediately. "I say we execute him in Ramadan, and this will be punishment for Margaret Thatcher...

"
The Iraqi dictator rejected attempts to secure clemency for Bazoft as examples of British "arrogance". He also derided Thatcher's attempt to use King Hussein of Jordan as a mediator.

"A mediator! Only God can mediate for him," Hussein said in the recordings. "Are they [the British] underestimating us? After all the damages we've suffered and sacrifices that we have made over the last eight years, the British still do not know us well! Thatcher sent us a nice message, and we answered her with a nicer message, huh?"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/26/saddam-hussein-execution-farzad-bazoft
 
What happened to change matters in the case of Farzad Bazoft?

Jimmy Carter and the shift in US policy. IMO part of Hussein's arrogance in the years between Iran-Iraq and the Gulf War (or are we on Gulf War III now with Iran-Iraq as GWI and 1990 as GWII? Anyway) was due to continued, if quiet, US support for his government as a local proxy. Hart's cutting off of supplies, the increased attention to his uses of gas, and Carter's Middle East mission has put Hussein and his government under a spotlight.

He knows he needs the United States on his side, or at least silent, to achieve his ambitions so he's walking softer and playing nice for now. He's not going to get what he wants but he's still going to try; during the lead-up to the Iraq War (Gulf War III?) he was doing all he could to look like he was playing ball with the UN to avert American intervention. He also checked with the US embassy OTL before he invaded Kuwait to make sure the United States would stay out of the fighting. With the Bahrain Conference, Carter's diplomacy, and a different American Middle Eastern policy he has plenty of reasons to be worried about possible American intervention.

This, of course, doesn't mean the US isn't going to muck things up and get stuck in somewhere else later on down the line. There's PLENTY of tarpits out there waiting to be jumped on ;)
 
I am curious, talking about the Persian Gulf, what is the fate of Richard Alan Clarke in the Hart administration?
 
What are the chances o the Republicans making a comeback in 1992? How about adding a sidebar vignette about Reagan and his thoughts and final years?
 
What may happen is the GOP will go to the Libertarians, as they may present a way out of the political wilderness they otherwise wouldn't have.
 

DTanza

Banned
What may happen is the GOP will go to the Libertarians, as they may present a way out of the political wilderness they otherwise wouldn't have.

Libertarianism is always mentioned as a viable alternative. Has it ever actually had strong popular support though?
 
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