Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

Its unclear whether Cannakale meant the city or the whole area, which part of is indeed under Greek control (Gallipoli and the islands at least). My money is on the former since asking for the whole area would indeed be a lot from the soviets, and of somewhat limited benefit for the political cost it would have with the Greeks back in Gallipoli.

Moreover, the sequence of events and how the update where the Soviets took it was written does point toward a smaller zone of actual Soviet control they could annex IMO... Basically, you had a comparatively small Soviet airborne showing up and meeting the trust of the Greek forces northward so both the immediate action of the Greeks and the limited forces at hand for the Soviets make the latter getting too far inland fairly unlikely IMO. Moreover, when the Soviets met the Greeks they announced they occupied Cannakale and Lapseki, which wouldn't make sense if they had the whole, or most, of the old Sanjak under control as why would they mention the smaller constituent town then? At most that meant that the Soviets were controlling the two direct districts of these names and it is quite probably they literally meant they were only controlling both settlements and their surroundings.
I think they’re asking for everything they control but I do agree that the Soviet don’t control the majority of the territory based on what we’ve been told .
 
A good update! Seems as if all the (somewhat overheated) speculation about a divided Poland TTL came to naught.
A divided Poland would require the west to occupy the entirety of Germany and chunks of Poland ahead of the Soviet army. Which is erm... unlikely?
If Stalin is talking about directly annexing Cannakale, that would seem to run counter to the idea of the Soviets being relatively soft on Turkey, and seeking to bring Sivas under their wings in exchange for protection against the Western Allies. Unless that suggestion was simply meant as a spoiling tactic and was never meant to leave this conference room?
That's... a matter of definition.
Basically Stalin going for a full annexation of Cannakale means he is most likely implicitly accepting that his gamble in the Straits has mostly failed and he is trying to save what he can out of it by getting full control of the spots where he has the most boots on the ground, and that means implicitly agreeing to let the Greeks do their thing elsewhere. The sense I, and if I read them well others too, got was that Staline playing comparatively nice with Sivas was mostly motivated by the need for their collaboration for the Straits gamble to have a shot. With that having mostly failed and he is likely to revise his annexations plans in Eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus upward so as to realise as much direct gains as he can where he can get them...
Soo is Stalin actually going hard on Turkey and accepting failure here or the reverse? What did the treaty of Fontainebleau say?

"Constantinople, including the Biga Sanjak becomes a League of Nations mandate for a 30 years period at which point a referendum will determine its future. Within the city the Turkish government to retain control of the Ottoman palaces."

The Biga sanjak is the modern Channak province. How likely is it from Sivas point of view in 1945 given what has transpired in 1941-44 that there will still be a referendum in 1952 to be won or that the mandate territory will be given back anyway? If the chances of getting the land back vary between slim and none does it matter any to Sivas whether the Greeks or the Soviets get the land? Arguably it does... if the Soviets do not annex Trebizond for example because they got Channak and the Greeks fail to get it and insted get a most unwelcome Soviet military presence instead to have to think about.

Apart from that, there is two big developments:

I. The Wallies success in Yugoslavia will continue to build up the chances of success of the Chetniks.
The Royal Yugoslav Army for the most part by now. Yes there are a handful of Chetniks in Bosnia and Slovenia but the bulk in Serbia and Montenegro have been absorbed into the army.
II. Monty seem somewhat ahead of the OTL schedule in Burma. Combine the long-term impacts of that with the Burma road seemingly not being closed and the KMT not being nearly as battered as in OTL and I'd say Chiang sticking around is quite possible, if not through an outright victory against Mao then at least by not losing the war either...
He is silghtly ahead of schedule, not least because you did not have Chindits TTL but the Japanese had still gotten Burma back in 1941-42.
@Lascaris who is running Constantinople now? Is there a High Commissioner for the civil administration of the City, besides the military commanders of the Allies?
An Allied control commission with a UN High Commisioner and US, British, French, Soviet and Greek commisioners under him. Now who the High Commissioner should be?
Insisting on annexing Cannakale is likely to backfire on Stalin; such an outrageous demand might end up with Roosevelt having a change of heart about Stalin's intentions.
Speaking of outrageous demands Königsberg would like a word. And have we mentioned that Soviet administered UN Trust territory in Libya demanded in OTL?
I’m glad I’m not the only one somewhat surprised by the Soviet demand for Cannakale. That’s a major shift in Soviet policy, and it feels like they’d be more or just as interested in taking Uskudar along with whatever they might decide to do out east. If it’s not just a negotiating tactic. It’s not 100% clear in the update if it’s just Stalins way of telling Churchill to back off the whole Curzon line B thing or an actual new goal of his. Which is probably deliberate on the authors part. Personally I see the fate of Constantinople and Cannakale being decided in the old league mandated plebiscite due to it being the solution that requires the least actual action.
Stalin in Tehran was adamant on a Soviet military presence on the straits and the Greeks annexing Constantinople. How is the Soviet military presence secured and where do they get their bases particularly with the British talking again about the Greeks getting at least the European side? A UN Trust Territory of Costantinople that includes Cannakale runs the obvious dangeer of coming appart a few years after the war. And then what?
Stalin is an opportunist, if he asks for Cannakale and gets it that's great. If he asks for it and the Allies say no he hasn't lost anything but maybe he says no to something they want in return. Or accepts it without a quid pro quo to make himself look reasonable.

His objective is to get as much as he can from the peace deal. That means demanding stuff and seeing if the Allies push back.
In OTL he asked for a Soviet run UN Trust territory of Tripolitania. And in 1946 wanted of course Soviet military bases in the straits...

View attachment 898418
Current OTL Map of Çanakkale Province with Districts (including the centre district that is the town of Çanakkale proper).

Yenice might be within Greek control rather than being a part of the Biga/Çanakkale area that was left to Turkey ITTL as an exclave that is now occupied by Soviets if I am not misremembering.
Not entirely certain. The border is following the Ottoman administrative divisions. Which from Cuinet's maps back in 1894 is this:
1712044245351.png


The islands (Gökçeada and Bozcaada being Imbros and Tenedos respectively) are definitely Greek while I think Gallipoli peninsula is under WAllied control but I might be misremembering it's status ITTL.
Gallipoli is Greek since Sevres.

I think they’re asking for everything they control but I do agree that the Soviet don’t control the majority of the territory based on what we’ve been told .
They are asking for the Asian part of the old League mandate sans Uskudar which likely becomes Turkish but occupied by the Allies (read Soviets) for the foreseeable future. How it works out... if the European side is annexed to Greece as Churchill is proposing why the Asian side should become a UN Trust territory? Or the reverse if you don't want the Asian side annexed then why the European side should be annexed? That's a double edged sword here... for the west.
 
View attachment 898418
Current OTL Map of Çanakkale Province with Districts (including the centre district that is the town of Çanakkale proper).

Yenice might be within Greek control rather than being a part of the Biga/Çanakkale area that was left to Turkey ITTL as an exclave that is now occupied by Soviets if I am not misremembering.

The islands (Gökçeada and Bozcaada being Imbros and Tenedos respectively) are definitely Greek while I think Gallipoli peninsula is under WAllied control but I might be misremembering it's status ITTL.
Oh my lord as a Russian part of me wants this for my Rodina Mat but the sane part of me the human who likes Earth less fucked up does not want the Soviets to annex this ITTL oh fuck no
 
Will Greece, as a graditude for the Commonwealth (and French) help, plus as a show of flag, would they send some units to the Western Front?
 
Will Greece, as a graditude for the Commonwealth (and French) help, plus as a show of flag, would they send some units to the Western Front?
Honestly beyond the Naval help for D-Day I don’t expect any addition help from the Greeks on the Western front because they’re the backbone of the entire Southern front. Without them There is no push north through Yugoslavia, Albania, and Bulgaria and there is no one to hold those areas or Turkish soil. Without them Italy would be where it was OTL for the most part.

I can’t see the Greeks feeling the need to show the flag or gratitude in such a way. Their continued presence on the southern line pushing for war goals that are important to the Wallies in general and the Brits in particular is their way of showing gratitude. The Greeks marching through the alps into Austria aren’t there because of Grecian goals after all.
 
Honestly beyond the Naval help for D-Day I don’t expect any addition help from the Greeks on the Western front because they’re the backbone of the entire Southern front. Without them There is no push north through Yugoslavia, Albania, and Bulgaria and there is no one to hold those areas or Turkish soil. Without them Italy would be where it was OTL for the most part.

I can’t see the Greeks feeling the need to show the flag or gratitude in such a way. Their continued presence on the southern line pushing for war goals that are important to the Wallies in general and the Brits in particular is their way of showing gratitude. The Greeks marching through the alps into Austria aren’t there because of Grecian goals after all.
Off course, but small units couldn't do harm - like an infantry regiment, one or two aircrafts squadrons (plus a flight of transports) and a artillery battery
 
Part 165
Bosnia, February 15th ,1945

Mostar was liberated by Yugoslav Partisan forces. It would take some weeks for regular Allied forces to link up with the partisans now controlling the city but the Germans and their collaborators were out...

Iwo Jima, February 19th, 1945


The US V Amphibious Corps begun landing on the island. Despite overwhelming American superiority the Japanese defenders would hold out for five weeks and die nearly to the last man.

Poland, February 23rd, 1945


Poznan was liberated by Soviet and Polish forces.

Italy, February 27th, 1945


Trento was liberated by the US 10th Mountain Division. While fighting was continuing in a somewhat desultory fashion, the Allied 15th Army Group was concentrating most of its efforts preparing for a general offensive as soon as springtime allowed it...

Riyadh, February 28th, 1945


Two weeks earlier king Ibn Saud had met with president Roosevelt aboard USS Quincy. Now the Saudis declared war against Germany. Someone cynic would had said that the declaration was practically worthless and little more than a gesture, but gestures had their uses. And given what had happened a few days earlier in Egypt where prime minister Ahmad Maher pasha had been assassinated in parliament as soon as he had announced the Egyptian declaration of war against Germany...

New York, February 28th, 1945


The first film directed by Elia Kazan made its debut in US theaters.

Norway, February 28th, 1945


Bergen surrendered to Swedish and Norwegian forces. But by now this was likely the smallest problem of the German forces in Norway. The Germans had started back in late August with sufficient supplies for about six months. Some supplies had managed to reach them between the entry of Sweden to the war and liberation of Trondheim and Mo-i-Rana in November which had cut off the German 20th Army in the north of Norway completely. By now the Germans held two widely separated areas in the north and the south of Norway and the supplies carefully stored over the early years of occupation were starting to run out...

Tehran, March 1st, 1945

The Teymurtash government declared war against Japan. Following the surrender of Turkey, Iran was still at war with Germany but did not have any troops in actual combat. Even the Iranian troops stationed in Turkey after the armistice were by now replaced by British forces as part of the general draw down of Allied forces in Anatolia. From almost 261,000 men in June 1944 Allied forces were now down to 156,000 men with almost a third being the Kurdish army.

Germany, March 2nd, 1945


The US 3rd Army captured Trier. Allied forces had not crossed the Rhine yet in force. But the German Siegfried line was getting systematically demolished. By March 10th the Germans would be pushed completely out of the west bank of the Rhine.

Philippines, March 3rd, 1945

Manila has finally liberated by American and Filipino forces. The month long Japanese defense had cost the lives of over 100,000 civilians with the Japanese using civilians as human shields and massacring them indiscriminately.

Over Basel, Switzerland, March 4th, 1945


The B-17 pilot did a double take at the sight of a pair of what looked like a Loire-Nieuport LN-161 fighters darting after him at over 600 kph. The French fighter had been an increasingly rare sight in battlefields after the fall of France. The ones in use by the Free French and Royal Yugoslav Air Force had been mostly destroyed in combat or grounded due to lack of spares by the end of 1941. The ones passed by Germany to the Croatian Air force were by now nearly gone, like the rest of the Croatian air force, the Allied Balkan Air forces had made sure of that. A handful modified with Soviet Klimov engines soldiered on with the Finnish Air Force. Which left the Swiss who actually built increasingly improved variants of the aircraft locally. But being intercepted by Swiss fighters meant you were flying over Switzerland...

Hungary, March 6th, 1945


Twenty-five German divisions of Army Group South with 650 tanks and 850 aircraft tried to push back the Soviet 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian fronts and secure the Hungarian oil fields the last held by Germany. Only the Soviets outnumbered the Germans by almost five to three and had more operational tanks and nearly a thousand operational tanks. And then to these would be added the 856 aircraft of the Balkan Air Forces and USAAF's 15th Air Force. Within nine days the German offensive would be halted and the Soviets launch their own counterattack.

West Germany, March 6th, 1945


Elements of the US 9th Armored Division managed to secure the Hohenzollern bridge in Cologne before German engineers could demolish it...

Bosnia, March 7th, 1945


Allied forces advancing from Montenegro linked up with the Partisans who had liberated the city three weeks earlier. The next day British 10th army units in the north would link up with the Yugoslav People's army forces in Vukovar.

Tokyo, March 9-10th, 1945

Nearly 300 USAAF B-29 bombers hit Tokyo overnight burning down a quarter of the city and killing about 100,000 civilians. The next night the Americans would hit Nagoya. Then Osaka. Then Kobe as the USAAF start systematically demolishing Japanese cities...

East Germany, March 15th, 1945


The Soviet 1st Ukrainian Front under Ivan Koniev attacked into Upper Silesia. The Soviets had yet to push against Berlin. But it was just a matter of time before they did so.

Cologne, March 17th, 1945


The Germans had thrown at the Hohenzollern bridge everything they had available from commandos and heavy artillery to ballistic missiles and jet bombers. Finally their efforts had borne fruit managing to destroy the bridge. But it was arguably too late as the US 1st Army by now had five divisions anchored east of the Rhine and American combat engineers had setup two temporary bridges across the river.

West Germany, March 22nd, 1945

The US 3rd Army under George Patton attacked across the Rhine. The next day further north four thousand guns of the British 21st Army Group would signal the beginning of the British crossing of the river and the Western Allies invasion of Germany.

Yugoslavia, March 24th, 1945


The Allied Armies of the Orient went to the offensive. The Germans still held Slovenia and large parts and Bosnia and Croatia, with Heeresgruppe E having about 578,000 men, 60% of them German. But the Allied armies in Yugoslavia by now were massively stronger with 1.36 million men, more than half of them Yugoslavs of all political stripes and several armored divisions...
 
Could Tehran spare a few troops to the Burma frontline?

Also, with the now expanding kamikaze threats to their navies, could the US press into service sooner the Bearcat, Tigercat and Fireball? And the FAA could take some to supplement their possible introduction of Seafang?
 
The bridgehead in Cologne seems to be a major butterfly. I wonder whether the WAllied advance will be more rapid than in OTL.
 
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So the Germans hit Hohenzollern bridge with everything...including jet bombers. Either I'm missing something, or Germany has managed to start serial production of Jet powered bombers. Its not gonna matter , Germany has barely a month left at this rate. But still, interesting...
 
So the Germans hit Hohenzollern bridge with everything...including jet bombers. Either I'm missing something, or Germany has managed to start serial production of Jet powered bombers. Its not gonna matter , Germany has barely a month left at this rate. But still, interesting...
If it's that militarily important to them they might press prototypes into active service. I think that this was done at one stage with a photo reconnaissance version of the Spitfire OTL.
 
So the Germans hit Hohenzollern bridge with everything...including jet bombers. Either I'm missing something, or Germany has managed to start serial production of Jet powered bombers. Its not gonna matter , Germany has barely a month left at this rate. But still, interesting...
If it's that militarily important to them they might press prototypes into active service. I think that this was done at one stage with a photo reconnaissance version of the Spitfire OTL.
The jet bomber was an actual plane which saw combat IOTL:

 
If the Wallies don’t pick up the pace in Italy they’re gonna end the war on the wrong side of the Alps, at least if they have any hope of having a western Allied Austria and maybe participating in the liberation of Prague.

It’s nice to see the Allies avoid one of the bigger embarrassments in Switzerland though. I’m not sure it changes much but it’s nice all the same.

The big change though is definitely the Wallied breakthrough in cologne. That’s definitely gonna create butterflies. I wouldn’t be surprised if V-E day was less than a month away ITTL. Which should help save some more Jews. Honestly I’d love an index when the war is over that shows the OTL numbers compared to TTL number of victims by country if you’re up to it @Lascaris .
 
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